Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.6298130238, -117.371441183, 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

30 NOV 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 37 37 NNW 0 1 2841 2841 191 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 35 35 ENE 0 0 2841 2841 191 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 34 34 ENE 1 2 2841 2841 191 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 33 33 E 1 2 2841 2841 191 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 32 32 SSE 1 2 2841 2841 191 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 32 32 SE 2 4 2841 2841 191 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 36 36 S 1 3 2841 2841 191 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 38 38 SSW 2 4 2841 2841 191 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 40 40 S 2 4 2841 2841 191 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 44 44 SSE 1 2 2844 2841 191 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 48 48 SSE 2 2 3105 2909 259 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 54 56 S 2 2 4892 4486 1836 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 53 55 S 2 3 4821 3514 864 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 55 56 S 4 5 4892 4486 1836 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 58 59 S 6 8 5262 4887 2237 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 56 56 SSW 8 9 4892 4486 1836 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 55 55 S 8 9 4821 3514 864 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 53 53 S 8 10 4496 3235 585 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 49 49 SSW 6 9 3170 2974 324 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 48 48 S 4 6 3105 2909 259 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 43 43 S 3 6 2841 2841 191 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 48 48 S 3 6 3105 2909 259 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 48 48 S 3 6 3105 2909 259 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 45 45 S 3 6 2909 2841 191 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 S 2 5 2841 2841 191 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 43 43 S 2 5 2841 2841 191 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 43 43 SE 3 6 2841 2841 191 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 SSE 4 6 2974 2841 191 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 47 S 4 6 3040 2844 194 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 44 44 S 4 6 2844 2841 191 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 47 S 4 6 3040 2844 194 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 47 S 4 6 3040 2844 194 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 44 44 S 4 5 2844 2841 191 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 49 49 S 4 5 3170 2974 324 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 50 S 3 4 3236 3039 389 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 46 46 S 4 5 2974 2841 191 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 52 52 S 6 6 3519 3170 520 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 53 53 SSW 6 7 4496 3235 585 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 47 47 SSW 6 6 3040 2844 194 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 53 53 SSW 6 7 4496 3235 585 Blue 2
4 PM Thu 52 52 SSW 6 7 3519 3170 520 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 46 46 SW 6 7 2974 2841 191 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 51 51 SW 4 4 3301 3104 454 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 50 50 SSW 4 5 3236 3039 389 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 46 46 SSW 3 4 2974 2841 191 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 49 49 SSW 3 4 3170 2974 324 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 49 49 SSW 3 4 3170 2974 324 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 46 46 SSW 3 4 2974 2841 191 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 SW 3 4 3105 2909 259 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 SSW 2 3 3105 2909 259 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 45 45 SSW 1 2 2909 2841 191 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 SSE 1 2 3105 2909 259 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 48 SSE 3 4 3105 2909 259 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 46 SE 3 4 2974 2841 191 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 48 SE 4 5 3105 2909 259 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 48 SE 4 5 3105 2909 259 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 46 SE 2 3 2974 2841 191 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 50 SE 1 1 3236 3039 389 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 51 51 ESE 2 2 3301 3104 454 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 49 49 E 3 3 3170 2974 324 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 56 57 ESE 2 2 4981 4667 2017 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 57 58 ESE 1 2 5115 4817 2167 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 51 51 E 2 2 3301 3104 454 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 59 59 ENE 2 3 5262 4887 2237 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 59 59 NE 2 2 5262 4887 2237 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 53 53 NE 3 3 4496 3235 585 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 52 52 NNE 2 5 3519 3170 520 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 49 49 N 2 4 3170 2974 324 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 47 47 N 2 4 3040 2844 194 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 46 46 NNE 2 5 2974 2841 191 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 46 46 NNE 2 6 2974 2841 191 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 45 45 NE 3 7 2909 2841 191 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst