Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.6298130238, -117.371441183, 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

14 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 W 8 14 3518 2650 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 43 43 W 8 13 2474 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 W 5 10 2474 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 W 5 9 2474 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 W 5 9 2474 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 W 6 10 2474 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 WSW 6 10 2474 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 SW 4 8 2474 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 45 S 3 4 3144 2650 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 46 47 S 4 6 3990 2865 215 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 48 50 SW 6 11 4474 3973 1323 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 50 52 WSW 10 16 5475 4259 1609 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 52 54 WSW 12 19 5923 4813 2163 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 52 54 WSW 14 24 5923 4813 2163 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 52 54 WSW 17 27 5923 4813 2163 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 52 53 WSW 18 29 5699 4458 1808 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 52 53 WSW 19 32 5699 4458 1808 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 50 50 WSW 20 32 4474 3973 1323 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 48 48 WSW 20 33 4218 3140 490 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 46 46 WSW 18 29 3518 2650 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 46 46 WSW 17 28 3518 2650 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 46 46 WSW 16 25 3518 2650 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 45 45 WSW 14 23 3144 2650 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 44 44 WSW 12 20 2876 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 WSW 10 17 2876 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 44 WSW 9 14 2876 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 43 WSW 9 13 2474 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 44 WSW 6 11 2876 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 WSW 6 11 2474 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 42 SW 5 9 2474 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 42 SW 5 10 2474 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 42 WSW 6 10 2474 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 WSW 6 11 3144 2650 0 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 46 47 WSW 6 11 3990 2865 215 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 49 51 WSW 8 12 4852 4216 1566 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 50 54 WSW 8 13 5923 4813 2163 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 55 60 WSW 9 14 7361 6561 3911 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 59 64 WSW 10 16 8140 7659 5009 Blue 20
2 PM Mon 58 63 W 11 18 8042 7303 4653 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 61 65 W 12 19 8238 7803 5153 Blue 21
4 PM Mon 61 63 W 12 20 8042 7303 4653 Blue 19
5 PM Mon 59 60 W 12 20 7361 6561 3911 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 56 56 W 11 19 6369 5676 3026 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 53 53 W 10 17 5699 4458 1808 Blue 9
8 PM Mon 51 51 W 9 14 4852 4216 1566 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 51 51 WNW 6 11 4852 4216 1566 Blue 7
10 PM Mon 51 51 N 4 6 4852 4216 1566 Blue 7
11 PM Mon 48 48 NNE 2 3 4218 3140 490 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 NNE 1 1 4218 3140 490 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 47 47 NNE 1 1 3990 2865 215 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 46 46 NE 1 1 3518 2650 0 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 47 47 NE 2 3 3990 2865 215 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 46 46 NE 3 4 3518 2650 0 Blue 2
5 AM Tue 45 45 NE 4 6 3144 2650 0 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 48 48 NE 4 6 4218 3140 490 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 49 49 NE 4 6 4262 3502 852 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 50 51 NE 4 6 4852 4216 1566 Blue 7
9 AM Tue 55 57 NNE 4 8 6590 5898 3248 Blue 13
10 AM Tue 58 62 NW 5 9 7849 6998 4348 Blue 18
11 AM Tue 59 65 W 5 10 8238 7803 5153 Blue 21
12 Noon Tue 69 76 W 6 11 11419 11004 8354 White 32
1 PM Tue 67 75 W 8 13 11213 10637 7987 White 31
2 PM Tue 65 72 W 10 16 10595 9366 6716 White 28
3 PM Tue 71 76 W 11 17 11419 11004 8354 White 32
4 PM Tue 72 75 W 12 19 11213 10637 7987 White 31
5 PM Tue 65 66 W 12 19 8337 8023 5373 Blue 22
6 PM Tue 66 66 W 11 18 8337 8023 5373 Blue 22
7 PM Tue 65 65 W 10 17 8238 7803 5153 Blue 21
8 PM Tue 57 57 W 9 13 6590 5898 3248 Blue 13
9 PM Tue 62 62 WNW 8 11 7849 6998 4348 Blue 18
10 PM Tue 61 61 NNE 5 10 7721 6780 4130 Blue 17
11 PM Tue 54 54 ENE 5 8 5923 4813 2163 Blue 10
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 NNW 4 8 4852 4216 1566 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 52 52 NNW 4 8 5475 4259 1609 Blue 8
2 AM Wed 54 54 ENE 3 5 5923 4813 2163 Blue 10
3 AM Wed 54 54 W 3 5 5923 4813 2163 Blue 10
4 AM Wed 52 52 W 3 5 5475 4259 1609 Blue 8
5 AM Wed 52 52 ENE 4 6 5475 4259 1609 Blue 8
6 AM Wed 52 52 ENE 4 6 5475 4259 1609 Blue 8
7 AM Wed 55 55 ENE 4 6 6146 5453 2803 Blue 11
8 AM Wed 58 59 ENE 4 6 7031 6340 3690 Blue 15
9 AM Wed 62 64 ENE 4 6 8140 7659 5009 Blue 20
10 AM Wed 65 69 ENE 4 6 9454 8317 5667 Blue 25
11 AM Wed 68 74 SW 5 10 11007 10132 7482 White 30
12 Noon Wed 71 78 SW 5 10 11586 11344 8694 Blue 34
1 PM Wed 73 80 SW 5 10 12043 11505 8855 Blue 36
2 PM Wed 74 80 WSW 10 16 12043 11505 8855 Blue 36
3 PM Wed 74 79 WSW 10 16 11797 11444 8794 Blue 35
4 PM Wed 74 77 WSW 10 16 11524 11174 8524 Blue 33
5 PM Wed 72 73 WSW 10 16 10801 9737 7087 White 29
6 PM Wed 69 69 WSW 10 16 9454 8317 5667 Blue 25
7 PM Wed 65 65 WSW 10 16 8238 7803 5153 Blue 21
8 PM Wed 61 61 WSW 8 12 7721 6780 4130 Blue 17
9 PM Wed 59 59 WSW 8 12 7031 6340 3690 Blue 15
10 PM Wed 58 58 WSW 8 12 6811 6120 3470 Blue 14
11 PM Wed 58 58 ENE 5 8 6811 6120 3470 Blue 14
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 ENE 5 8 6590 5898 3248 Blue 13
1 AM Thu 56 56 ENE 5 8 6369 5676 3026 Blue 12
2 AM Thu 55 55 E 4 6 6146 5453 2803 Blue 11
3 AM Thu 54 54 E 4 6 5923 4813 2163 Blue 10
4 AM Thu 53 53 E 4 6 5699 4458 1808 Blue 9
5 AM Thu 53 53 E 4 8 5699 4458 1808 Blue 9
6 AM Thu 54 54 E 4 8 5923 4813 2163 Blue 10
7 AM Thu 55 55 E 4 8 6146 5453 2803 Blue 11
8 AM Thu 58 58 ESE 5 8 6811 6120 3470 Blue 14
9 AM Thu 60 61 ESE 5 8 7721 6780 4130 Blue 17
10 AM Thu 63 66 ESE 5 8 8337 8023 5373 Blue 22
11 AM Thu 66 70 SW 8 12 9829 8608 5958 Blue 26
12 Noon Thu 69 73 SW 8 12 10801 9737 7087 White 29
1 PM Thu 71 75 SW 8 12 11213 10637 7987 White 31
2 PM Thu 72 76 SW 10 16 11419 11004 8354 White 32
3 PM Thu 71 74 SW 10 16 11007 10132 7482 White 30
4 PM Thu 71 73 SW 10 16 10801 9737 7087 White 29
5 PM Thu 69 70 SW 11 18 9829 8608 5958 Blue 26
6 PM Thu 65 65 SW 11 18 8238 7803 5153 Blue 21
7 PM Thu 62 62 SW 11 18 7849 6998 4348 Blue 18
8 PM Thu 59 59 SW 9 13 7031 6340 3690 Blue 15
9 PM Thu 56 56 SW 9 13 6369 5676 3026 Blue 12
10 PM Thu 55 55 SW 9 13 6146 5453 2803 Blue 11
11 PM Thu 54 54 S 5 8 5923 4813 2163 Blue 10
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 S 5 8 5923 4813 2163 Blue 10
1 AM Fri 53 53 S 5 8 5699 4458 1808 Blue 9
2 AM Fri 52 52 SSE 4 6 5475 4259 1609 Blue 8
3 AM Fri 51 51 SSE 4 6 4852 4216 1566 Blue 7
4 AM Fri 50 50 SSE 4 6 4474 3973 1323 Blue 6
5 AM Fri 50 50 ESE 4 6 4474 3973 1323 Blue 6
6 AM Fri 50 50 ESE 4 6 4474 3973 1323 Blue 6
7 AM Fri 51 51 ESE 4 6 4852 4216 1566 Blue 7
8 AM Fri 53 53 S 5 8 5699 4458 1808 Blue 9
9 AM Fri 55 56 S 5 8 6369 5676 3026 Blue 12
10 AM Fri 58 61 S 5 8 7721 6780 4130 Blue 17
11 AM Fri 61 66 SW 6 11 8337 8023 5373 Blue 22
12 Noon Fri 64 70 SW 6 11 9829 8608 5958 Blue 26
1 PM Fri 67 73 SW 6 11 10801 9737 7087 White 29
2 PM Fri 68 74 SW 10 17 11007 10132 7482 White 30
3 PM Fri 67 71 SW 10 17 10267 8990 6340 Blue 27
4 PM Fri 67 70 SW 10 17 9829 8608 5958 Blue 26
5 PM Fri 65 66 SW 11 18 8337 8023 5373 Blue 22
6 PM Fri 62 62 SW 11 18 7849 6998 4348 Blue 18
7 PM Fri 58 58 SW 11 18 6811 6120 3470 Blue 14
8 PM Fri 56 56 SW 10 16 6369 5676 3026 Blue 12
9 PM Fri 54 54 SW 10 16 5923 4813 2163 Blue 10
10 PM Fri 53 53 SW 10 16 5699 4458 1808 Blue 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst