Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.6298130238, -117.371441183, 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 WNW 5 10 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 51 WNW 4 10 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 WNW 5 11 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 50 WNW 4 10 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 50 NW 5 11 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 50 WNW 4 10 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 WNW 4 9 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 WNW 4 9 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 WNW 3 8 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 53 53 NW 3 8 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 58 59 NNW 3 8 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 62 63 NNW 3 9 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 66 68 NNW 4 9 2715 2650 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 66 67 NW 4 10 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 67 68 NW 4 9 2715 2650 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 66 66 W 4 10 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 62 62 W 8 14 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 58 58 WSW 6 12 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 57 57 WSW 5 11 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 56 56 WSW 4 10 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 55 55 SW 4 10 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 55 SW 4 9 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 SSW 4 9 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 53 SSW 3 9 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 S 3 9 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 52 S 4 9 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 51 S 4 10 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 S 5 11 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 S 6 12 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 S 8 13 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 S 8 14 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 S 9 16 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 48 S 9 16 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 53 S 9 16 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 57 59 S 9 16 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 61 63 S 9 16 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 64 67 S 9 16 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 63 65 S 9 16 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 63 64 S 9 16 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 62 62 S 9 16 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 60 60 S 9 16 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 57 57 S 9 16 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 54 54 S 9 17 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 52 52 S 9 16 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 51 51 S 8 13 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 50 50 S 4 10 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 50 SSE 3 8 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 49 49 SSW 2 5 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 W 1 5 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 NW 1 5 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 NW 3 8 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 NW 4 10 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 47 47 NW 6 12 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 NW 6 13 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 NW 8 14 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 NW 9 16 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 48 NNW 10 18 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 53 NNW 12 20 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 58 NNW 13 23 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 60 62 NNW 13 23 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 63 66 NNW 14 23 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 64 66 NNW 14 23 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 64 65 NNW 14 24 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 63 63 NNW 14 24 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 61 61 NNW 14 24 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 59 59 NNW 13 23 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 56 56 NW 12 20 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 54 54 NW 11 18 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 53 NW 10 18 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 52 52 NW 10 17 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 51 51 NW 10 17 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 50 NW 10 18 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 NW 11 18 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 50 WNW 10 18 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 NW 10 17 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 NW 8 14 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 NNW 6 13 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 47 NNW 6 13 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 47 NNW 6 13 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 NE 8 11 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 51 NE 8 11 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 55 NE 8 11 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 60 NE 8 11 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 62 64 NE 8 11 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 65 67 NE 8 11 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 67 69 N 6 11 2969 2650 0 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 67 68 N 6 11 2715 2650 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 65 65 N 6 11 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 63 63 NNW 8 12 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 61 61 NNW 8 12 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 58 58 NNW 8 12 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 56 56 NE 8 11 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 55 55 NE 8 11 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 54 NE 8 11 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 54 ENE 8 12 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 53 ENE 8 12 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 ENE 8 12 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 52 ENE 8 11 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 52 ENE 8 11 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 51 ENE 8 11 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 51 NE 9 13 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 50 NE 9 13 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 49 49 NE 9 13 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 50 NE 9 13 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 52 NE 9 13 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 57 NE 9 13 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 61 ENE 10 13 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 63 65 ENE 10 13 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 67 69 ENE 10 13 2969 2650 0 Blue 1
1 PM Fri 68 70 ENE 9 14 3065 2650 0 Blue 2
2 PM Fri 68 69 ENE 9 14 2969 2650 0 Blue 1
3 PM Fri 67 67 ENE 9 14 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 65 65 ENE 9 12 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 63 63 ENE 9 12 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 60 60 ENE 9 12 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 58 58 ENE 9 13 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 57 57 ENE 9 13 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 56 ENE 9 13 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 56 ENE 9 13 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 55 ENE 9 13 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 55 ENE 9 13 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 55 NE 9 13 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 55 NE 9 13 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 54 NE 9 13 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 NE 10 14 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 53 53 NE 10 14 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 NE 10 14 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 52 ENE 9 14 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 54 ENE 9 14 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 58 ENE 9 14 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 62 ENE 9 13 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 64 66 ENE 9 13 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 67 69 ENE 9 13 2969 2650 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 69 71 ENE 9 13 3396 2690 40 Blue 3
2 PM Sat 69 70 ENE 9 13 3065 2650 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sat 67 67 ENE 9 13 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 65 65 NE 8 12 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 63 63 NE 8 12 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 60 NE 8 12 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 58 58 NE 8 12 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 57 57 NE 8 12 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 57 57 NE 8 12 2408 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 56 NE 8 11 2408 2650 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst