Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.9879562095, -117.122319277, 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

13 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 63 55 WNW 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 63 55 WNW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 63 55 WNW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 55 W 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 64 56 WNW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 64 56 WNW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 64 56 WNW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 64 56 WNW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 58 W 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 69 62 SW 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 74 68 WSW 4 10 1853 1455 405 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 78 74 WSW 8 14 2175 2056 1006 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 80 77 WSW 6 12 2249 2173 1123 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 80 78 WSW 9 16 2272 2204 1154 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 80 77 W 10 17 2249 2173 1123 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 79 75 WSW 10 18 2205 2095 1045 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 79 74 WSW 8 13 2175 2056 1006 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 78 72 W 5 11 2097 1922 872 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 75 68 W 5 10 1853 1455 405 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 72 64 W 4 10 551 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 69 61 W 4 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 67 59 W 4 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 66 58 WSW 4 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 65 57 WSW 3 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 65 57 WSW 3 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 65 57 WNW 2 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 64 56 NW 1 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 64 56 WNW 1 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 65 57 WNW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 65 57 WNW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 56 W 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 65 57 W 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 58 WSW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 69 61 WSW 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 73 66 W 4 10 1706 1050 0 White 1
11 AM Sun 77 74 W 6 12 2175 2056 1006 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 77 75 W 8 14 2205 2095 1045 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 77 75 W 9 16 2205 2095 1045 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 79 77 W 10 17 2249 2173 1123 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 78 75 W 10 17 2205 2095 1045 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 77 72 W 10 17 2097 1922 872 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 76 70 W 9 16 1997 1778 728 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 74 67 W 8 14 1781 1050 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 72 64 W 6 12 551 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 67 59 W 5 11 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 70 62 W 4 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 68 60 W 4 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 55 W 4 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 67 59 W 3 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 67 59 W 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 54 WNW 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 66 58 WNW 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 67 59 WNW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 62 54 NW 2 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 64 56 NW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 65 57 NW 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 63 55 NW 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 69 61 WNW 4 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 75 68 W 6 12 1853 1455 405 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 76 75 W 8 14 2205 2095 1045 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 75 75 W 9 16 2205 2095 1045 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 80 80 W 10 18 2316 2248 1198 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 79 79 W 11 18 2294 2226 1176 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 79 77 W 10 18 2249 2173 1123 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 74 70 W 9 16 1997 1778 728 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 77 72 W 10 17 2097 1922 872 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 72 65 W 9 17 1485 1050 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 71 63 W 8 14 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 66 58 W 6 12 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 70 62 W 5 11 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 68 60 W 5 11 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 64 56 W 3 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 61 53 W 1 4 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 61 53 W 1 4 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 62 54 W 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 63 55 WSW 1 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 63 55 WSW 1 4 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 63 55 NW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 54 NW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 62 54 NW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 55 W 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 59 W 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 72 65 W 2 6 1485 1050 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 76 75 W 5 12 2205 2095 1045 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 79 79 W 5 12 2294 2226 1176 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 80 80 W 5 12 2316 2248 1198 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 79 79 W 10 18 2294 2226 1176 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 80 78 W 10 18 2272 2204 1154 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 79 75 W 10 18 2205 2095 1045 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 77 72 W 10 17 2097 1922 872 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 73 66 W 10 17 1706 1050 0 White 1
7 PM Tue 70 62 W 10 17 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 66 58 WNW 6 13 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 65 57 WNW 6 13 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 64 56 WNW 6 13 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 55 WNW 4 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 63 55 WNW 4 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 54 WNW 4 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 54 NW 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 62 54 NW 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 63 55 NW 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 63 55 NNW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 55 NNW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 55 NNW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 56 WNW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 67 59 WNW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 71 63 WNW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 75 73 W 5 12 2136 1994 944 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 78 78 W 5 12 2272 2204 1154 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 79 79 W 5 12 2294 2226 1176 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 78 77 W 10 17 2249 2173 1123 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 79 77 W 10 17 2249 2173 1123 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 78 74 W 10 17 2175 2056 1006 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 76 70 W 10 17 1997 1778 728 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 73 66 W 10 17 1706 1050 0 White 1
7 PM Wed 70 62 W 10 17 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 67 59 WNW 5 12 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 65 57 WNW 5 12 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 56 WNW 5 12 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 63 55 WNW 4 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 63 55 WNW 4 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 54 WNW 4 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 54 WNW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 54 WNW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 62 54 WNW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 62 54 NNW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 54 NNW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 62 54 NNW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 56 W 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 68 60 W 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 73 65 W 2 6 1485 1050 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 77 75 W 5 11 2205 2095 1045 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 80 79 W 5 11 2294 2226 1176 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 81 80 W 5 11 2316 2248 1198 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 80 79 W 10 17 2294 2226 1176 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 81 79 W 10 17 2294 2226 1176 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 80 76 W 10 17 2227 2134 1084 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 78 72 W 9 16 2097 1922 872 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 75 68 W 9 16 1853 1455 405 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 72 64 W 9 16 551 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 69 61 W 5 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 67 59 W 5 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 66 58 W 5 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst