Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.2099918919, -117.302860125, 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

13 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 74 72 S 2 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 74 72 SSE 2 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 73 71 SSE 2 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 73 71 SE 2 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 73 71 SE 3 8 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 73 71 SE 3 8 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 72 70 SE 3 8 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 72 70 SSE 2 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 76 75 SSE 3 8 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 79 79 SSE 3 8 2964 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 83 84 S 3 9 3492 4040 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 87 89 S 6 13 4115 4040 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 89 91 S 6 13 4350 4040 0 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 91 94 SSW 8 14 4670 4345 305 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 92 94 SSW 8 14 4670 4345 305 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 92 93 S 10 18 4564 4228 188 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 93 93 SSW 9 16 4564 4228 188 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 92 92 S 12 20 4458 4111 71 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 89 88 S 8 14 3998 4040 0 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 85 83 S 4 10 3341 4040 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 80 78 S 2 6 2859 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 76 74 S 2 5 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 75 73 S 2 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 74 72 S 3 8 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 73 71 S 3 8 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 73 71 S 2 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 72 70 S 2 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 72 70 S 2 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 71 69 S 2 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 71 69 S 2 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 70 68 S 2 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 70 68 S 3 8 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 74 73 S 3 8 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 77 78 S 4 9 2859 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 79 81 S 5 11 3173 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 82 85 SSW 6 12 3644 4040 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 86 90 SSW 8 13 4232 4040 0 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 89 94 SSW 8 14 4670 4345 305 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 87 91 SSW 9 16 4350 4040 0 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 90 93 SSW 9 17 4564 4228 188 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 89 91 SSW 10 17 4350 4040 0 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 88 88 SW 10 17 3998 4040 0 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 89 88 SSW 9 16 3998 4040 0 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 86 84 SSW 8 13 3492 4040 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 77 75 SSW 5 11 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 76 74 SSW 5 11 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 77 75 SSW 4 10 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 71 69 SSW 4 10 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 73 71 SSW 4 9 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 73 71 SSW 3 8 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 69 67 SSW 2 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 74 72 SSW 2 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 72 70 SSW 2 5 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 68 66 SSW 1 5 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 69 67 S 1 5 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 72 70 SSW 1 5 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 71 70 SW 1 5 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 80 81 SW 2 6 3173 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 78 81 SW 3 8 3173 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 78 83 SW 4 10 3341 4040 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 85 91 SW 6 12 4350 4040 0 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 83 89 SSW 8 13 4115 4040 0 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 82 88 SSW 9 14 3998 4040 0 Blue 7
3 PM Mon 86 90 SSW 9 17 4232 4040 0 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 88 91 SSW 10 17 4350 4040 0 Blue 10
5 PM Mon 83 84 SSW 9 17 3492 4040 0 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 87 86 SSW 9 16 3763 4040 0 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 84 82 SSW 8 13 3255 4040 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 73 71 SSW 5 12 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 73 71 SSW 4 10 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 72 70 SSW 4 10 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 69 67 SSW 3 8 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 68 66 SSW 2 5 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 68 66 SW 1 5 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 68 66 WSW 2 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 68 66 SW 1 1 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 67 65 S 1 1 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 67 65 WSW 2 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 68 66 WSW 2 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 69 67 WSW 2 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 71 70 SW 3 8 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 74 75 SW 3 8 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 77 80 SW 3 8 3068 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 80 85 SW 5 12 3644 4040 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 83 89 SW 5 12 4115 4040 0 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 85 91 SW 5 12 4350 4040 0 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 87 93 SW 5 12 4564 4228 188 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 88 92 SW 5 12 4458 4111 71 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 88 91 SW 5 12 4350 4040 0 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 88 89 SW 5 12 4115 4040 0 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 84 83 SW 5 12 3341 4040 0 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 80 78 SW 5 12 2859 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 76 74 SW 4 9 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 73 71 SW 4 9 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 71 69 SW 4 9 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 70 68 SSW 3 8 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 69 67 SSW 3 8 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 69 67 SSW 3 8 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 68 66 SSW 2 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 68 66 SSW 2 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 67 65 SSW 2 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 67 65 S 2 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 68 66 S 2 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 69 67 S 2 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 71 70 SSW 3 8 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 74 75 SSW 3 8 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 77 80 SSW 3 8 3068 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 80 85 SW 5 10 3644 4040 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 83 89 SW 5 10 4115 4040 0 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 86 92 SW 5 10 4458 4111 71 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 88 94 SW 6 12 4670 4345 305 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 89 93 SW 6 12 4564 4228 188 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 89 91 SW 6 12 4350 4040 0 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 89 89 SW 5 12 4115 4040 0 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 86 85 SW 5 12 3644 4040 0 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 81 79 SW 5 12 2964 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 76 74 SW 3 8 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 73 71 SW 3 8 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 71 69 SW 3 8 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 70 68 SSW 2 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 70 68 SSW 2 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 69 67 SSW 2 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 69 67 S 2 5 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 68 66 S 2 5 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 68 66 S 2 5 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 68 66 NE 2 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 69 67 NE 2 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 70 68 NE 2 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 73 72 SSW 2 5 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 75 76 SSW 2 5 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 78 80 SSW 2 5 3068 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 81 85 SW 3 9 3644 4040 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 84 90 SW 3 9 4232 4040 0 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 87 93 SW 3 9 4564 4228 188 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 89 95 SW 4 10 5074 4453 413 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 91 95 SW 4 10 5074 4453 413 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 90 92 SW 4 10 4458 4111 71 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 90 90 SW 5 10 4232 4040 0 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 86 85 SW 5 10 3644 4040 0 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 82 80 SW 5 10 3068 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 78 76 SW 2 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 75 73 SW 2 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 73 71 SW 2 6 2733 4040 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst