Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.2099918919, -117.302860125, 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

30 NOV 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 49 47 N 2 4 4522 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 47 N 1 2 4522 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 46 NE 1 2 3635 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 46 NE 1 3 3635 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 47 45 NE 1 2 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 45 E 0 1 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 46 NNW 0 0 3635 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 46 ESE 0 0 3635 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 46 S 0 1 3635 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 49 47 SSW 1 2 4522 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 50 49 SSW 2 3 4833 4040 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 54 54 SW 2 3 5592 4996 956 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 52 51 SW 2 3 5000 4766 726 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 52 51 SW 4 4 5000 4766 726 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 56 55 SW 4 4 5859 5140 1100 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 53 51 SW 4 4 5000 4766 726 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 52 50 SW 4 4 4909 4519 479 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 51 49 SW 4 5 4833 4040 0 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 50 48 SW 4 5 4767 4040 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 50 48 SSW 3 4 4767 4040 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 49 47 SSW 2 4 4522 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 48 46 S 2 5 3635 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 48 46 S 3 6 3635 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 45 43 SSE 3 6 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 45 43 S 3 5 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 43 SSE 3 6 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 43 SSE 4 7 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 42 SSE 4 8 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 41 SSE 4 8 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 43 S 5 9 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 42 S 4 8 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 43 41 SSE 4 8 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 43 41 SSE 4 8 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 44 42 S 4 8 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 45 43 S 4 6 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 45 43 S 3 5 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 47 45 S 4 6 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 48 46 SSW 4 6 3635 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 45 43 SSW 3 5 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 48 46 SSW 2 4 3635 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 48 46 SSW 4 6 3635 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 45 43 SW 4 6 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 46 44 SW 4 6 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 46 44 SSW 3 6 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 45 43 SSW 3 5 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 45 43 SSW 3 5 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 43 S 3 5 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 46 44 S 3 5 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 42 S 1 2 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 42 SE 1 3 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 45 43 SE 2 4 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 43 41 SE 3 6 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 42 SE 4 7 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 43 SE 5 9 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 42 SE 4 8 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 42 ESE 4 8 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 44 ESE 3 6 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 45 43 ESE 2 3 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 47 46 E 1 2 3635 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 48 46 ENE 2 3 3635 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 51 49 NE 0 1 4833 4040 0 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 52 50 SSW 0 1 4909 4519 479 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 50 48 SW 0 0 4767 4040 0 Blue 1
3 PM Fri 54 52 WNW 0 0 5146 4831 791 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 57 55 NW 1 1 5859 5140 1100 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 51 49 N 1 1 4833 4040 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 50 48 NNW 1 3 4767 4040 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 49 47 NNE 2 6 4522 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 48 NNE 3 7 4767 4040 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 46 44 NNE 4 8 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 46 44 NNE 3 8 3530 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 50 NNE 3 6 4909 4519 479 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst