Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.2099918919, -117.302860125, 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 10 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sun 47 45 N 40 58 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 47 45 N 41 59 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 46 N 41 60 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 46 N 41 60 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 46 N 39 57 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 46 N 37 56 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 46 N 37 56 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 46 N 37 56 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 49 N 36 54 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 53 NNE 36 54 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 56 55 N 33 50 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 59 59 NNE 33 49 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 61 61 N 32 48 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 64 64 N 32 48 3000 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 63 62 N 31 47 2834 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 63 61 N 31 46 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 60 58 N 29 44 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 56 54 N 29 44 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 55 53 N 29 44 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 54 52 NNE 28 42 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 53 51 NNE 27 42 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 53 51 NNE 27 42 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 51 NNE 25 39 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 51 NNE 26 41 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 51 NNE 26 40 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 52 NNE 24 37 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 52 NNE 23 35 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 53 NNE 23 35 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 53 NNE 23 35 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 52 NNE 23 35 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 52 NNE 23 34 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 52 NNE 21 34 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 54 NNE 20 32 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 58 N 18 29 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 62 60 N 17 26 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 65 64 N 17 27 3000 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 67 66 N 16 26 3608 4040 0 Blue 2
1 PM Mon 67 66 N 12 21 3608 4040 0 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 68 66 N 11 19 3608 4040 0 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 66 64 N 11 19 3000 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 64 62 N 13 23 2834 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 62 60 NNE 16 25 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 59 57 NNE 14 23 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 57 55 NNE 12 20 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 54 NNE 12 20 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 53 NNE 12 21 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 52 NNE 12 20 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 52 N 12 20 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 52 NNE 13 23 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 52 NNE 14 24 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 52 NNE 13 23 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 51 NNE 13 23 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 51 NNE 10 17 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 49 NNE 10 17 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 48 NNE 11 18 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 48 NNE 5 11 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 50 NNE 4 10 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 54 N 3 9 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 59 N 2 6 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 62 62 N 2 6 2834 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 64 64 NW 3 8 3000 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 65 65 NW 4 9 3253 4040 0 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 64 63 NW 4 10 2917 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 64 62 NW 4 10 2834 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 63 61 NNW 5 11 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 60 58 N 12 20 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 57 55 NNE 13 23 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 55 53 NNE 16 25 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 54 52 NNE 16 25 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 53 51 NNE 16 26 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 53 51 NNE 17 27 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 53 51 NNE 20 31 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 53 51 N 21 33 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 51 N 21 34 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 50 N 26 40 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 50 N 26 40 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 49 NNE 23 35 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 48 NNE 23 35 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 47 NNE 23 35 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 47 NNE 17 27 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 49 NNE 17 27 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 52 NNE 17 27 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 56 NNE 17 27 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 59 59 NNE 17 27 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 60 60 NNE 17 27 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 61 61 N 18 29 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 61 60 N 18 29 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 62 60 N 18 29 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 60 58 N 18 29 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 58 56 N 18 29 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 55 53 N 18 29 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 52 50 NNE 18 28 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 51 49 NNE 18 28 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 51 49 NNE 18 28 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 51 49 NNE 17 26 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 49 NNE 17 26 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 49 NNE 17 26 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 48 NNE 13 23 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 49 NNE 13 23 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 49 NNE 13 23 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 48 NNE 14 24 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 47 NNE 14 24 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 46 NNE 14 24 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 46 NNE 13 23 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 48 NNE 13 23 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 52 NNE 13 23 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 57 NNE 13 21 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 61 61 NNE 13 21 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 63 63 NNE 13 21 2917 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 64 63 NNE 11 19 2917 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 64 63 NNE 11 19 2917 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 65 63 NNE 11 19 2917 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 63 61 N 11 19 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 60 58 N 11 19 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 56 54 N 11 19 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 53 51 NNE 12 20 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 52 50 NNE 12 20 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 50 NNE 12 20 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 50 NNE 12 20 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 50 NNE 12 20 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 50 NNE 12 20 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 50 NNE 12 20 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 50 NNE 12 20 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 49 NNE 12 20 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 49 NNE 13 23 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 48 NNE 13 23 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 49 47 NNE 13 23 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 47 NNE 14 24 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 49 NNE 14 24 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 52 NNE 14 24 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 57 NNE 12 21 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 61 60 NNE 12 21 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 63 62 NNE 12 21 2834 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 65 64 NNE 13 23 3000 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 64 62 NNE 13 23 2834 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 64 62 NNE 13 23 2834 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 62 60 N 12 20 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 60 58 N 12 20 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 57 55 N 12 20 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 52 NNE 12 20 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 53 51 NNE 12 20 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 50 NNE 12 20 2759 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 53 51 NNE 12 21 2759 4040 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst