Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.2099918919, -117.302860125, 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

14 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 46 44 SSE 4 5 5508 4272 232 Blue 4
1 AM Sun 45 43 S 4 6 4912 4220 180 Blue 3
2 AM Sun 44 42 SSW 4 5 4496 4040 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sun 43 41 S 3 4 4274 4040 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 40 38 SSE 4 7 3688 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 39 37 S 4 8 3688 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 38 S 3 6 3688 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 42 N 2 4 4496 4040 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 47 46 S 2 3 5966 4896 856 Blue 6
9 AM Sun 50 50 SSW 4 4 6872 6177 2137 Blue 10
10 AM Sun 52 54 SSW 5 5 7943 7074 3034 Blue 14
11 AM Sun 55 58 SSW 7 8 8471 8066 4026 Blue 18
12 Noon Sun 56 55 SSW 9 10 8080 7435 3395 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 57 56 SW 10 11 8180 7744 3704 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 56 55 SW 12 14 8080 7435 3395 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 55 54 WSW 12 14 7943 7074 3034 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 54 53 WSW 11 13 7756 6851 2811 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 53 51 WSW 10 11 7105 6402 2362 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 52 50 WSW 8 10 6872 6177 2137 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 51 49 SW 4 6 6646 5951 1911 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 51 49 SW 4 5 6646 5951 1911 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 50 48 SSW 3 4 6420 5724 1684 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 50 48 SSW 4 5 6420 5724 1684 Blue 8
11 PM Sun 50 48 SW 5 6 6420 5724 1684 Blue 8
12 Midnight Mon 49 47 SW 4 5 6193 5496 1456 Blue 7
1 AM Mon 49 47 SSW 4 5 6193 5496 1456 Blue 7
2 AM Mon 49 47 SW 3 4 6193 5496 1456 Blue 7
3 AM Mon 46 44 SSW 2 3 5508 4272 232 Blue 4
4 AM Mon 45 43 S 2 3 4912 4220 180 Blue 3
5 AM Mon 45 43 SSE 3 4 4912 4220 180 Blue 3
6 AM Mon 45 43 S 2 4 4912 4220 180 Blue 3
7 AM Mon 47 45 SE 2 3 5737 4492 452 Blue 5
8 AM Mon 50 49 WSW 1 1 6646 5951 1911 Blue 9
9 AM Mon 53 53 WNW 1 2 7756 6851 2811 Blue 13
10 AM Mon 56 58 NW 1 1 8471 8066 4026 Blue 18
11 AM Mon 59 63 W 2 2 10562 9194 5154 Blue 23
12 Noon Mon 62 67 W 2 3 11442 10945 6905 Blue 27
1 PM Mon 64 69 WSW 4 4 11567 11291 7251 Blue 29
2 PM Mon 66 71 SW 6 7 11979 11488 7448 Blue 31
3 PM Mon 67 70 SW 6 7 11727 11426 7386 Blue 30
4 PM Mon 67 68 WSW 5 6 11504 11118 7078 Blue 28
5 PM Mon 66 65 WSW 5 5 11160 9954 5914 Blue 25
6 PM Mon 64 62 WSW 6 7 10030 8806 4766 Blue 22
7 PM Mon 58 56 W 6 7 8180 7744 3704 Blue 16
8 PM Mon 53 51 W 5 10 7105 6402 2362 Blue 11
9 PM Mon 50 48 W 3 7 6420 5724 1684 Blue 8
10 PM Mon 47 45 WNW 1 3 5737 4492 452 Blue 5
11 PM Mon 45 43 W 0 1 4912 4220 180 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 44 42 WSW 0 0 4496 4040 0 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 43 41 ENE 0 1 4274 4040 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 42 40 NNE 0 1 4221 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 40 NE 1 2 4221 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 42 40 NNE 2 5 4221 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 41 39 NE 3 6 4002 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 42 40 NNE 3 6 4221 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 47 NNE 3 7 6193 5496 1456 Blue 7
8 AM Tue 56 55 N 3 4 8080 7435 3395 Blue 15
9 AM Tue 62 63 N 2 2 10562 9194 5154 Blue 23
10 AM Tue 67 70 NNW 1 1 11727 11426 7386 Blue 30
11 AM Tue 71 75 NW 2 3 12644 12160 8120 Blue 35
12 Noon Tue 74 79 NW 2 2 13192 12740 8700 Blue 39
1 PM Tue 76 82 WNW 4 4 14178 13149 9109 Blue 42
2 PM Tue 78 83 W 5 6 15052 13286 9246 Blue 43
3 PM Tue 78 81 W 7 8 13444 13013 8973 Blue 41
4 PM Tue 78 79 W 6 8 13192 12740 8700 Blue 39
5 PM Tue 77 76 W 7 9 12781 12330 8290 Blue 36
6 PM Tue 73 71 WSW 8 9 11979 11488 7448 Blue 31
7 PM Tue 64 62 WSW 4 7 10030 8806 4766 Blue 22
8 PM Tue 59 57 W 3 6 8280 7909 3869 Blue 17
9 PM Tue 56 54 NW 1 2 7943 7074 3034 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 53 51 NE 0 1 7105 6402 2362 Blue 11
11 PM Tue 52 50 E 0 0 6872 6177 2137 Blue 10

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst