Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.11893, -117.11256, 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time UTC:

 250122/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 50 48 NE 2 5 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 50 48 ENE 4 10 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 48 NE 3 8 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 48 NE 4 10 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 48 NE 2 6 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 48 NE 5 10 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 48 NE 6 12 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 49 NE 8 13 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 52 NE 4 10 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 58 NNE 4 9 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 62 62 NNE 4 9 2943 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 66 66 NE 3 8 3988 3272 102 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 69 70 NE 5 10 5522 4412 1242 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 70 70 NE 5 10 5522 4412 1242 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 71 71 ENE 8 13 5792 4844 1674 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 71 70 ENE 4 10 5522 4412 1242 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 69 67 ENE 14 24 4433 3599 429 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 64 62 NE 12 20 2943 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 61 59 NE 10 17 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 58 56 NE 8 14 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 56 NE 6 13 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 54 NE 6 12 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 53 NE 8 13 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 51 NE 10 18 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 51 NE 14 24 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 52 NE 19 31 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 51 NE 25 39 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 50 NE 31 47 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 51 NE 33 49 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 52 NE 27 42 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 52 NE 20 32 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 49 NE 13 23 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 56 NE 12 21 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 60 NE 14 23 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 60 NE 17 27 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 64 65 NE 21 33 3801 3170 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 65 66 ENE 25 39 3988 3272 102 Blue 2
1 PM Thu 65 66 ENE 28 42 3988 3272 102 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 68 68 ENE 27 42 4871 3797 627 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 68 67 ENE 25 37 4433 3599 429 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 64 62 ENE 20 32 2943 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 62 60 NE 16 25 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 58 56 NE 10 18 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 55 53 NE 5 11 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 52 NE 4 10 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 50 NE 4 10 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 50 NE 4 10 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 50 NE 4 10 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 48 NE 4 9 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 49 NE 3 9 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 49 NE 3 9 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 49 NE 3 9 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 48 NE 4 9 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 47 NE 3 9 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 46 ENE 3 8 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 47 ENE 3 8 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 50 E 2 6 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 55 S 2 5 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 60 SSW 1 5 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 63 63 SSW 2 5 3276 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 65 65 SW 2 6 3801 3170 0 Blue 1
1 PM Fri 66 66 SW 3 8 3988 3272 102 Blue 2
2 PM Fri 67 66 SW 3 9 3988 3272 102 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 67 66 W 3 9 3988 3272 102 Blue 2
4 PM Fri 66 64 W 3 9 3606 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 62 60 W 3 8 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 58 56 WNW 2 6 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 52 WNW 1 5 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 50 W 1 5 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 51 49 S 1 5 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 49 SE 2 5 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 50 48 SE 2 5 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 48 SSE 2 6 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 48 SSE 2 6 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 47 SSE 2 6 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 47 SSE 2 6 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 46 SSE 2 6 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 47 45 SSE 2 6 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 45 SSE 2 6 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 45 SSE 3 8 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 46 SSE 3 8 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 49 47 SSE 3 8 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 51 49 S 5 12 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 52 50 S 5 12 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 53 51 S 5 12 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 54 52 SSW 8 14 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 54 52 SSW 8 14 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 53 51 SSW 8 14 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 52 50 SSW 9 16 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 50 48 SSW 9 16 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 49 47 SSW 9 16 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 48 46 SSW 6 13 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 47 45 SSW 6 13 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 46 44 SSW 6 13 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 46 44 S 5 12 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 44 S 5 12 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 44 S 5 12 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 44 SSW 4 9 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 43 SSW 4 9 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 43 SSW 4 9 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 42 S 3 8 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 42 S 3 8 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 41 S 3 8 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 41 S 2 6 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 43 41 S 2 6 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 43 41 S 2 6 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 43 41 SW 3 8 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 44 42 SW 3 8 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 46 44 SW 3 8 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 48 46 W 4 9 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 49 47 W 4 9 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 49 47 W 4 9 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 49 47 N 4 9 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 47 45 N 4 9 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 46 44 N 4 9 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 44 42 NE 2 6 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 44 42 NE 2 6 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 43 41 NE 2 6 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 43 41 NE 2 6 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 43 41 NE 2 6 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 43 41 NE 2 6 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 40 NE 2 6 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 40 NE 2 6 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 40 NE 2 6 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 40 NE 3 8 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 39 NE 3 8 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 38 NE 3 8 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 40 38 NE 2 6 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 39 NE 2 6 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 43 41 NE 2 6 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 45 44 N 3 8 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 47 46 N 3 8 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 49 49 N 3 8 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 51 50 N 4 9 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 52 51 N 4 9 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 52 50 N 4 9 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 52 50 N 4 9 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 50 48 N 4 9 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 47 45 N 4 9 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 44 42 NNE 2 6 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 43 41 NNE 2 6 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 43 41 NNE 2 6 2815 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 42 40 NE 2 6 2815 3170 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst