Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.11893, -117.11256, 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

28 MAR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 51 49 W 1 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 48 SSW 1 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 46 S 1 5 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 46 S 1 5 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 46 S 1 4 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 46 SE 1 1 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 46 SE 1 5 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 46 SE 1 5 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 47 SSW 2 6 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 51 SW 3 8 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 54 54 SW 3 9 3109 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 56 58 WSW 5 11 4246 3717 547 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 58 61 WSW 5 12 4702 4240 1070 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 60 63 WSW 6 12 5105 4500 1330 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 61 64 WSW 6 13 5970 4689 1519 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 62 63 WSW 6 13 5105 4500 1330 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 62 62 WSW 9 16 4919 4370 1200 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 62 60 WSW 11 19 4507 4090 920 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 60 58 WSW 10 18 4246 3717 547 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 58 56 WSW 10 17 3941 3170 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 53 51 WSW 9 16 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 50 WSW 8 13 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 48 WSW 5 11 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 48 WSW 3 9 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 46 SW 2 6 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 46 SSW 2 6 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 44 S 2 5 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 43 S 2 5 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 42 SSE 2 5 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 42 SSE 2 6 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 42 S 2 6 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 42 SSW 3 8 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 42 SW 3 9 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 46 44 SW 4 9 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 47 46 SW 5 10 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 49 50 SW 5 12 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 51 53 SW 6 12 2974 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 53 55 WSW 8 13 3730 3170 0 Blue 1
2 PM Fri 54 54 WSW 9 14 3109 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 55 55 WSW 10 17 3730 3170 0 Blue 1
4 PM Fri 55 54 WSW 11 18 3109 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 54 52 WSW 11 19 2886 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 52 50 WSW 11 19 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 50 48 SW 10 18 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 48 46 SSW 9 17 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 46 44 SSW 9 16 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 46 44 SSE 9 16 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 45 43 SSE 9 14 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 45 43 SE 9 14 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 45 43 SE 9 16 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 45 43 ESE 9 16 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 43 ESE 9 17 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 44 E 10 17 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 44 E 11 18 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 44 E 11 19 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 43 ESE 12 20 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 43 ESE 12 21 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 44 42 SE 13 23 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 44 42 S 14 23 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 43 41 SSW 13 23 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 43 41 SSW 12 20 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 43 41 SSW 10 18 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 43 41 SSW 9 16 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 44 42 S 10 18 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 44 42 S 12 20 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 44 42 SSE 13 21 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 44 42 S 12 20 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 44 42 S 11 18 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 43 41 SSW 9 16 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 43 41 S 8 14 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 43 41 S 8 13 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 42 40 SSE 6 12 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 42 40 SSE 6 12 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 40 SSE 6 12 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 41 S 6 12 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 41 SSE 6 12 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 41 SSE 5 12 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 41 SSE 5 11 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 41 SSE 5 11 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 41 SSE 5 11 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 43 41 SSE 6 12 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 42 SSE 6 12 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 45 43 SSE 6 12 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 46 44 S 6 13 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 47 46 S 6 13 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 48 47 S 6 13 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 48 46 S 10 18 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 49 47 S 10 18 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 49 47 S 10 18 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 48 46 S 9 16 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 48 46 S 9 16 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 47 45 S 9 16 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 46 44 S 5 11 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 45 43 S 5 11 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 45 43 S 5 11 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 44 42 SE 3 9 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 44 42 SE 3 9 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 43 41 SE 3 9 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 41 ENE 4 9 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 40 ENE 4 9 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 40 ENE 4 9 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 40 NNE 5 11 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 41 NNE 5 11 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 42 NNE 5 11 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 43 NNE 4 9 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 45 NNE 4 9 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 48 48 NNE 4 9 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 51 51 W 8 13 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 52 53 W 8 13 2974 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 54 55 W 8 13 3730 3170 0 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 56 57 W 9 17 4096 3170 0 Blue 3
3 PM Mon 57 57 W 9 17 4096 3170 0 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 58 57 W 9 17 4096 3170 0 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 58 57 W 10 18 4096 3170 0 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 56 54 W 10 18 3109 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 54 52 W 10 18 2886 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 52 50 W 6 12 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 49 W 6 12 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 47 W 6 12 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 46 NE 5 10 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 46 NE 5 10 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 45 NE 5 10 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 47 45 NNE 5 11 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 44 NNE 5 11 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 46 44 NNE 5 11 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 46 44 NNE 6 13 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 45 NNE 6 13 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 46 NNE 6 13 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 48 NNE 8 13 2874 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 53 NNE 8 13 2974 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 57 58 NNE 8 13 4246 3717 547 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 60 63 NNW 5 10 5105 4500 1330 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 63 67 NNW 5 10 6938 5938 2768 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 65 69 NNW 5 10 7179 6580 3410 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 66 70 NW 8 14 7661 6897 3727 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 68 70 NW 8 14 7661 6897 3727 Blue 16
4 PM Tue 67 68 NW 8 14 7065 6261 3091 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 68 67 NW 8 14 6938 5938 2768 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 66 64 NW 8 14 5970 4689 1519 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 63 61 NW 8 14 4702 4240 1070 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 60 58 N 6 13 4246 3717 547 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 58 56 N 6 13 3941 3170 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 55 53 N 6 13 2974 3170 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst