Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.11893, -117.11256, 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

13 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 74 72 NNW 1 1 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 73 71 NNE 1 4 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 72 70 E 1 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 71 69 ENE 1 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 72 70 E 1 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 71 69 E 1 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 71 69 E 2 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 72 70 ESE 1 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 76 75 SSW 2 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 79 79 SSW 2 6 2941 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 84 85 SW 3 8 3610 3236 66 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 88 89 SW 5 11 4089 3735 565 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 91 93 SW 6 12 4540 4202 1032 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 94 96 SSW 6 12 6271 4535 1365 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 96 98 SSE 5 10 9121 4746 1576 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 95 96 ESE 8 14 6271 4535 1365 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 96 96 S 5 11 6271 4535 1365 Blue 15
5 PM Sat 96 95 SSE 9 16 4795 4429 1259 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 94 92 S 5 12 4434 4085 915 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 90 88 WSW 3 8 3972 3607 437 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 85 83 W 2 5 3319 3170 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 80 78 WNW 1 1 2836 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 77 75 NW 0 0 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 75 73 NNW 0 0 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 74 72 N 0 0 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 72 70 NE 1 1 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 72 70 ENE 1 1 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 71 69 ENE 1 1 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 70 68 E 1 1 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 69 67 E 1 1 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 69 67 ESE 1 1 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 70 68 S 1 1 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 72 71 SW 1 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 76 76 SW 3 8 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 79 81 WSW 4 9 3150 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 83 86 WSW 5 11 3737 3318 148 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 86 90 WSW 6 13 4206 3851 681 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 91 95 WSW 8 14 4795 4429 1259 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 90 94 WSW 9 16 4646 4318 1148 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 91 94 WSW 9 17 4646 4318 1148 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 91 92 WSW 10 17 4434 4085 915 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 91 91 WSW 10 17 4323 3968 798 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 90 89 W 9 16 4089 3735 565 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 86 84 W 6 13 3459 3170 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 81 79 W 5 11 2941 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 75 73 W 4 9 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 76 74 W 3 6 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 71 69 W 2 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 72 70 WNW 1 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 72 70 NW 1 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 67 65 NNW 1 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 73 71 NNW 1 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 71 69 N 2 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 66 64 N 2 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 72 70 N 2 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 73 71 NW 1 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 70 69 W 2 6 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 80 81 W 3 8 3150 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 78 81 WSW 4 9 3150 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 78 83 WSW 5 11 3319 3170 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 86 92 WSW 6 12 4434 4085 915 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 83 89 WSW 6 13 4089 3735 565 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 85 91 WSW 8 14 4323 3968 798 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 85 89 WSW 9 16 4089 3735 565 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 90 92 WSW 10 17 4434 4085 915 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 86 87 WSW 10 17 3855 3456 286 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 89 88 WSW 9 16 3972 3607 437 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 86 84 WSW 6 13 3459 3170 0 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 77 75 W 5 10 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 76 74 W 4 10 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 74 72 W 3 8 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 69 67 W 2 6 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 67 65 NW 1 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 66 64 NNW 1 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 67 65 NNW 2 6 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 66 64 N 2 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 66 64 N 2 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 65 63 N 1 1 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 65 63 N 1 1 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 66 64 N 1 1 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 69 68 W 2 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 72 73 W 2 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 77 80 W 2 5 3046 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 81 86 WSW 5 10 3737 3318 148 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 85 91 WSW 5 10 4323 3968 798 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 87 93 WSW 5 10 4540 4202 1032 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 89 95 WSW 8 14 4795 4429 1259 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 91 95 WSW 8 14 4795 4429 1259 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 90 93 WSW 8 14 4540 4202 1032 Blue 12
5 PM Tue 90 91 WSW 9 16 4323 3968 798 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 88 87 WSW 9 16 3855 3456 286 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 84 82 WSW 9 16 3237 3170 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 80 78 WSW 5 12 2836 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 76 74 WSW 5 12 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 72 70 WSW 5 12 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 69 67 SW 2 6 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 67 65 SW 2 6 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 66 64 SW 2 6 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 66 64 N 2 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 65 63 N 2 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 63 N 2 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 63 NNE 2 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 66 64 NNE 2 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 67 65 NNE 2 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 69 68 WSW 2 6 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 73 74 WSW 2 6 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 77 80 WSW 2 6 3046 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 81 85 WSW 5 10 3610 3236 66 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 85 91 WSW 5 10 4323 3968 798 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 88 94 WSW 5 10 4646 4318 1148 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 90 96 WSW 6 13 6271 4535 1365 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 92 96 WSW 6 13 6271 4535 1365 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 91 93 WSW 6 13 4540 4202 1032 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 91 91 WSW 9 16 4323 3968 798 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 88 87 WSW 9 16 3855 3456 286 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 84 82 WSW 9 16 3237 3170 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 80 78 WSW 5 10 2836 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 76 74 WSW 5 10 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 73 71 WSW 5 10 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 71 69 NW 2 6 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 69 67 NW 2 6 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 68 66 NW 2 6 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 68 66 NNE 2 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 67 65 NNE 2 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 67 65 NNE 2 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 67 65 NE 2 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 67 65 NE 2 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 68 66 NE 2 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 71 70 W 2 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 74 75 W 2 5 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 78 80 W 2 5 3046 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 82 86 WSW 3 9 3737 3318 148 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 86 92 WSW 3 9 4434 4085 915 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 89 95 WSW 3 9 4795 4429 1259 Blue 14
2 PM Thu 91 97 WSW 6 12 7747 4640 1470 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 93 97 WSW 6 12 7747 4640 1470 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 92 94 WSW 6 12 4646 4318 1148 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 92 92 WSW 8 14 4434 4085 915 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 89 88 WSW 8 14 3972 3607 437 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 86 84 WSW 8 14 3459 3170 0 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 82 80 WSW 4 9 3046 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 78 76 WSW 4 9 2733 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 75 73 WSW 4 9 2733 3170 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst