Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.11893, -117.11256, 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

14 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 47 45 WSW 5 11 4037 3170 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 45 43 SW 4 6 3164 3170 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 44 42 SSW 2 4 2980 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 42 S 2 3 2980 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 41 SSW 2 3 2661 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 40 S 2 2 2661 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 40 S 2 2 2661 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 41 SSE 2 3 2661 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 43 SSE 3 4 3164 3170 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 48 47 S 4 6 4286 3566 396 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 50 49 SSW 6 10 4937 4222 1052 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 52 52 SW 8 11 5961 4894 1724 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 53 53 WSW 8 13 6185 5491 2321 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 54 54 WSW 9 16 6408 5715 2545 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 55 55 WSW 11 17 6631 5938 2768 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 56 55 WSW 12 19 6631 5938 2768 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 55 54 WSW 12 20 6408 5715 2545 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 54 52 W 14 23 5961 4894 1724 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 54 52 WSW 13 21 5961 4894 1724 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 51 49 WSW 13 21 4937 4222 1052 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 48 46 W 12 19 4224 3170 0 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 47 45 W 10 17 4037 3170 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 46 44 WSW 10 16 3577 3170 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 46 44 WSW 8 13 3577 3170 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 46 44 WSW 6 11 3577 3170 0 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 46 44 WSW 6 11 3577 3170 0 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 45 43 W 5 9 3164 3170 0 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 45 43 W 5 9 3164 3170 0 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 44 42 W 4 6 2980 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 42 W 4 8 2980 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 42 W 5 9 2980 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 43 W 5 9 3164 3170 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 45 43 W 6 10 3164 3170 0 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 48 47 W 6 11 4286 3566 396 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 47 47 W 8 12 4286 3566 396 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 53 56 W 8 12 6853 6161 2991 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 52 56 W 8 13 6853 6161 2991 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 57 61 W 9 13 8063 7380 4210 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 62 65 W 9 14 8782 8145 4975 Blue 23
3 PM Mon 61 63 W 9 14 8261 7861 4691 Blue 21
4 PM Mon 62 63 W 9 14 8261 7861 4691 Blue 21
5 PM Mon 64 63 W 8 13 8261 7861 4691 Blue 21
6 PM Mon 60 58 W 8 12 7434 6604 3434 Blue 16
7 PM Mon 57 55 W 6 10 6631 5938 2768 Blue 13
8 PM Mon 58 56 W 5 9 6853 6161 2991 Blue 14
9 PM Mon 53 51 W 3 6 5736 4496 1326 Blue 9
10 PM Mon 54 52 WNW 2 3 5961 4894 1724 Blue 10
11 PM Mon 54 52 WNW 1 1 5961 4894 1724 Blue 10
12 Midnight Tue 51 49 NW 1 1 4937 4222 1052 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 51 49 N 1 1 4937 4222 1052 Blue 7
2 AM Tue 53 51 NNE 1 1 5736 4496 1326 Blue 9
3 AM Tue 51 49 NNE 2 2 4937 4222 1052 Blue 7
4 AM Tue 51 49 NNE 2 3 4937 4222 1052 Blue 7
5 AM Tue 53 51 NNE 2 4 5736 4496 1326 Blue 9
6 AM Tue 52 50 NNE 3 4 5510 4278 1108 Blue 8
7 AM Tue 54 52 NE 3 5 5961 4894 1724 Blue 10
8 AM Tue 58 57 NE 3 5 7074 6383 3213 Blue 15
9 AM Tue 60 60 NNE 3 5 7904 7044 3874 Blue 18
10 AM Tue 62 64 N 4 6 8389 8046 4876 Blue 22
11 AM Tue 67 71 NNW 4 6 10800 9837 6667 White 29
12 Noon Tue 71 76 NW 4 8 11625 11395 8225 Blue 34
1 PM Tue 69 74 W 5 9 11420 11054 7884 White 32
2 PM Tue 72 77 W 5 10 11874 11463 8293 Blue 35
3 PM Tue 75 78 W 8 12 12121 11524 8354 Blue 36
4 PM Tue 75 76 W 9 14 11625 11395 8225 Blue 34
5 PM Tue 73 72 W 10 16 11006 10275 7105 White 30
6 PM Tue 69 67 W 8 13 9550 8341 5171 Blue 25
7 PM Tue 67 65 W 6 10 8782 8145 4975 Blue 23
8 PM Tue 64 62 W 4 6 8162 7729 4559 Blue 20
9 PM Tue 61 59 WNW 3 5 7743 6824 3654 Blue 17
10 PM Tue 63 61 NNW 3 5 8063 7380 4210 Blue 19
11 PM Tue 59 57 N 3 5 7074 6383 3213 Blue 15
12 Midnight Wed 57 55 NW 3 4 6631 5938 2768 Blue 13
1 AM Wed 57 55 NW 3 4 6631 5938 2768 Blue 13
2 AM Wed 58 56 NE 3 5 6853 6161 2991 Blue 14
3 AM Wed 58 56 NNE 3 5 6853 6161 2991 Blue 14
4 AM Wed 57 55 NNE 3 5 6631 5938 2768 Blue 13
5 AM Wed 57 55 NE 3 5 6631 5938 2768 Blue 13
6 AM Wed 58 56 NE 3 5 6853 6161 2991 Blue 14
7 AM Wed 60 58 NE 3 5 7434 6604 3434 Blue 16
8 AM Wed 62 61 E 5 9 8063 7380 4210 Blue 19
9 AM Wed 65 65 E 5 9 8782 8145 4975 Blue 23
10 AM Wed 69 71 E 5 9 10800 9837 6667 White 29
11 AM Wed 72 76 WSW 6 11 11625 11395 8225 Blue 34
12 Noon Wed 74 79 WSW 6 11 12307 11586 8416 Blue 37
1 PM Wed 76 81 WSW 6 11 12578 12043 8873 Blue 39
2 PM Wed 77 81 WSW 10 16 12578 12043 8873 Blue 39
3 PM Wed 79 82 WSW 10 16 12713 12264 9094 Blue 40
4 PM Wed 78 79 WSW 10 16 12307 11586 8416 Blue 37
5 PM Wed 78 77 WSW 10 16 11874 11463 8293 Blue 35
6 PM Wed 75 73 WSW 10 16 11213 10780 7610 White 31
7 PM Wed 71 69 WSW 10 16 10384 9088 5918 White 27
8 PM Wed 67 65 W 6 11 8782 8145 4975 Blue 23
9 PM Wed 64 62 W 6 11 8162 7729 4559 Blue 20
10 PM Wed 62 60 W 6 11 7904 7044 3874 Blue 18
11 PM Wed 61 59 NNE 5 8 7743 6824 3654 Blue 17
12 Midnight Thu 60 58 NNE 5 8 7434 6604 3434 Blue 16
1 AM Thu 60 58 NNE 5 8 7434 6604 3434 Blue 16
2 AM Thu 59 57 NE 4 8 7074 6383 3213 Blue 15
3 AM Thu 58 56 NE 4 8 6853 6161 2991 Blue 14
4 AM Thu 58 56 NE 4 8 6853 6161 2991 Blue 14
5 AM Thu 58 56 NE 4 8 6853 6161 2991 Blue 14
6 AM Thu 59 57 NE 4 8 7074 6383 3213 Blue 15
7 AM Thu 61 59 NE 4 8 7743 6824 3654 Blue 17
8 AM Thu 63 61 ENE 5 8 8063 7380 4210 Blue 19
9 AM Thu 66 65 ENE 5 8 8782 8145 4975 Blue 23
10 AM Thu 69 70 ENE 5 8 10591 9465 6295 White 28
11 AM Thu 72 74 SW 6 10 11420 11054 7884 White 32
12 Noon Thu 74 77 SW 6 10 11874 11463 8293 Blue 35
1 PM Thu 76 79 SW 6 10 12307 11586 8416 Blue 37
2 PM Thu 77 79 WSW 10 16 12307 11586 8416 Blue 37
3 PM Thu 77 78 WSW 10 16 12121 11524 8354 Blue 36
4 PM Thu 78 78 WSW 10 16 12121 11524 8354 Blue 36
5 PM Thu 76 74 WSW 10 17 11420 11054 7884 White 32
6 PM Thu 73 71 WSW 10 17 10800 9837 6667 White 29
7 PM Thu 69 67 WSW 10 17 9550 8341 5171 Blue 25
8 PM Thu 65 63 WSW 8 12 8261 7861 4691 Blue 21
9 PM Thu 62 60 WSW 8 12 7904 7044 3874 Blue 18
10 PM Thu 60 58 WSW 8 12 7434 6604 3434 Blue 16
11 PM Thu 59 57 SW 5 8 7074 6383 3213 Blue 15
12 Midnight Fri 58 56 SW 5 8 6853 6161 2991 Blue 14
1 AM Fri 58 56 SW 5 8 6853 6161 2991 Blue 14
2 AM Fri 57 55 S 4 6 6631 5938 2768 Blue 13
3 AM Fri 56 54 S 4 6 6408 5715 2545 Blue 12
4 AM Fri 55 53 S 4 6 6185 5491 2321 Blue 11
5 AM Fri 55 53 N 4 6 6185 5491 2321 Blue 11
6 AM Fri 56 54 N 4 6 6408 5715 2545 Blue 12
7 AM Fri 57 55 N 4 6 6631 5938 2768 Blue 13
8 AM Fri 59 57 WSW 5 8 7074 6383 3213 Blue 15
9 AM Fri 62 62 WSW 5 8 8162 7729 4559 Blue 20
10 AM Fri 65 66 WSW 5 8 9169 8243 5073 Blue 24
11 AM Fri 68 71 WSW 8 13 10800 9837 6667 White 29
12 Noon Fri 71 75 WSW 8 13 11543 11224 8054 Blue 33
1 PM Fri 73 77 WSW 8 13 11874 11463 8293 Blue 35
2 PM Fri 74 78 WSW 11 18 12121 11524 8354 Blue 36
3 PM Fri 74 76 WSW 11 18 11625 11395 8225 Blue 34
4 PM Fri 75 76 WSW 11 18 11625 11395 8225 Blue 34
5 PM Fri 74 73 WSW 11 18 11213 10780 7610 White 31
6 PM Fri 71 69 WSW 11 18 10384 9088 5918 White 27
7 PM Fri 68 66 WSW 11 18 9169 8243 5073 Blue 24
8 PM Fri 64 62 WSW 9 13 8162 7729 4559 Blue 20
9 PM Fri 62 60 WSW 9 13 7904 7044 3874 Blue 18
10 PM Fri 60 58 WSW 9 13 7434 6604 3434 Blue 16

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst