Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.11893, -117.11256, 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 53 51 ENE 2 6 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 51 ENE 2 5 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 51 ENE 2 6 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 51 ENE 2 6 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 51 ENE 2 6 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 51 ENE 2 6 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 51 ENE 3 8 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 51 ENE 2 6 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 51 ENE 2 6 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 56 NE 1 1 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 63 62 SW 2 6 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 66 65 WSW 3 8 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 69 68 WSW 4 9 3077 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 69 68 WSW 4 9 3077 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 70 69 WSW 4 9 3452 3170 0 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 69 67 WSW 3 8 2981 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 66 64 W 3 8 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 62 60 NW 2 6 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 59 57 NE 1 5 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 57 55 E 1 5 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 55 53 E 1 5 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 52 E 1 5 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 52 E 2 5 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 51 E 2 5 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 50 ENE 2 5 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 49 ENE 2 5 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 49 ENE 1 5 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 51 49 ENE 1 1 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 51 49 E 1 1 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 49 E 1 5 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 49 E 2 6 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 49 E 3 8 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 49 SE 3 8 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 52 SSW 3 8 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 60 SW 3 8 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 63 63 WSW 4 9 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 65 65 WSW 4 10 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 65 65 WSW 5 10 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 65 64 WSW 4 10 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 65 63 SW 4 9 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 65 63 SW 3 9 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 62 60 W 3 8 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 58 56 NW 3 8 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 55 53 NNW 3 8 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 52 50 N 2 6 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 51 49 NNE 2 6 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 51 49 NNE 2 6 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 48 NNE 3 8 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 48 NE 4 10 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 50 48 NE 5 12 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 48 NE 6 12 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 48 ENE 6 12 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 48 ENE 6 12 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 46 ENE 8 13 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 45 ENE 8 14 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 46 ENE 9 16 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 48 ENE 8 13 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 53 ENE 5 11 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 58 ENE 4 10 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 60 60 ENE 4 9 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 63 63 NE 4 9 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 64 64 NE 4 10 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 65 64 NE 4 10 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 64 62 NNE 5 10 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 63 61 NNE 5 11 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 60 58 NE 6 12 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 57 55 ENE 8 13 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 54 52 ENE 8 14 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 52 50 E 8 14 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 51 49 E 6 13 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 51 49 E 6 12 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 48 E 6 12 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 48 E 6 13 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 48 E 8 13 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 48 E 8 13 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 48 ENE 6 13 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 48 ENE 6 13 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 47 ENE 6 13 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 47 ENE 6 13 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 47 NE 6 11 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 49 NE 6 11 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 54 NE 6 11 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 59 NE 6 10 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 62 62 NE 6 10 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 64 64 NE 6 10 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 66 66 N 8 11 2885 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 66 65 N 8 11 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 66 64 N 8 11 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 64 62 NNE 6 10 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 62 60 NNE 6 10 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 58 56 NNE 6 10 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 55 53 NE 5 10 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 52 NE 5 10 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 51 NE 5 10 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 51 NE 6 10 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 50 NE 6 10 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 50 NE 6 10 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 50 NE 6 10 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 50 NE 6 10 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 50 NE 6 10 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 50 NE 6 11 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 49 NE 6 11 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 48 NE 6 11 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 49 NE 8 11 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 52 NE 8 11 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 56 NE 8 11 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 61 60 ENE 8 12 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 64 64 ENE 8 12 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 66 66 ENE 8 12 2885 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 68 68 ENE 9 13 3077 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 68 67 ENE 9 13 2981 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 67 65 ENE 9 13 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 65 63 ENE 8 12 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 62 60 ENE 8 12 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 59 57 ENE 8 12 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 57 55 ENE 6 11 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 56 54 ENE 6 11 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 53 ENE 6 11 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 53 ENE 8 11 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 53 ENE 8 11 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 53 ENE 8 11 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 53 ENE 8 11 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 53 ENE 8 11 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 53 ENE 8 11 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 53 ENE 8 12 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 52 ENE 8 12 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 51 ENE 8 12 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 52 ENE 8 12 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 54 ENE 8 12 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 57 ENE 8 12 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 60 E 8 12 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 64 64 E 8 12 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 66 66 E 8 12 2885 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 67 67 E 8 12 2981 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 68 67 E 8 12 2981 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 67 65 E 8 12 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 65 63 ENE 8 11 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 63 61 ENE 8 11 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 58 ENE 8 11 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 58 56 ENE 8 11 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 56 54 ENE 8 11 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 54 ENE 8 11 2877 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 54 ENE 6 10 2877 3170 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst