Detailed Predictions for: Ord
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.403, -117.183, 4753
LZ Altitude (f): 1614
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

14 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 S 11 15 5790 4753 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 40 40 SSW 9 14 5558 4753 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 40 40 SSW 9 13 5558 4753 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 39 39 SSW 9 13 5150 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 38 38 SSW 9 14 4600 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 S 10 16 4600 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 37 37 S 10 17 4600 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 33 33 S 6 14 4600 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 41 42 SSW 10 13 6021 5136 383 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 43 45 SSW 9 11 6709 6012 1259 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 46 50 SSW 10 11 8013 7187 2434 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 48 54 SSW 13 14 8622 8103 3350 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 50 56 SSW 17 20 9418 8304 3551 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 50 52 SSW 22 26 8215 7776 3023 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 49 51 SSW 23 27 8114 7558 2805 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 49 49 SSW 20 23 7785 6920 2167 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 48 49 SSW 18 21 7785 6920 2167 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 46 46 SSW 15 19 6937 6240 1487 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 45 45 SSW 13 16 6709 6012 1259 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 44 44 SSW 13 15 6480 5782 1029 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 44 44 SSW 11 14 6480 5782 1029 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 43 43 SSW 12 15 6251 5553 800 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 43 43 SSW 11 15 6251 5553 800 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 43 43 SSW 11 15 6251 5553 800 Blue 4
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 SSW 11 15 6021 5136 383 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 42 42 SSW 9 13 6021 5136 383 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 42 42 SSW 9 12 6021 5136 383 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 41 41 SSW 8 11 5790 4753 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 40 40 SSW 7 10 5558 4753 0 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 40 40 SW 5 8 5558 4753 0 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 39 39 SW 5 8 5150 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 41 41 SSW 2 4 5790 4753 0 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 42 43 WNW 3 4 6251 5553 800 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 45 47 NW 6 8 7217 6468 1715 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 47 51 NW 6 7 8114 7558 2805 Blue 12
11 AM Mon 50 56 NW 5 6 9418 8304 3551 Blue 17
12 Noon Mon 53 60 NW 5 6 11065 9743 4990 Blue 21
1 PM Mon 56 64 NW 4 5 11535 11203 6450 Blue 25
2 PM Mon 58 65 WNW 5 6 11602 11378 6625 Blue 26
3 PM Mon 60 64 WNW 5 6 11535 11203 6450 Blue 25
4 PM Mon 61 61 WNW 6 7 11241 10161 5408 Blue 22
5 PM Mon 61 62 WNW 4 5 11409 10688 5935 Blue 23
6 PM Mon 60 60 W 4 5 11065 9743 4990 Blue 21
7 PM Mon 58 58 WSW 4 6 10260 8967 4214 Blue 19
8 PM Mon 55 55 SW 5 8 9023 8203 3450 Blue 16
9 PM Mon 53 53 SW 4 7 8316 8002 3249 Blue 14
10 PM Mon 52 52 SW 2 3 8215 7776 3023 Blue 13
11 PM Mon 51 51 SW 1 2 8114 7558 2805 Blue 12
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 SW 1 2 8013 7187 2434 Blue 11
1 AM Tue 49 49 SSW 1 2 7785 6920 2167 Blue 10
2 AM Tue 49 49 WSW 0 1 7785 6920 2167 Blue 10
3 AM Tue 48 48 NW 1 2 7592 6694 1941 Blue 9
4 AM Tue 47 47 NNW 3 6 7217 6468 1715 Blue 8
5 AM Tue 47 47 N 2 5 7217 6468 1715 Blue 8
6 AM Tue 47 47 NNW 2 5 7217 6468 1715 Blue 8
7 AM Tue 49 49 NNW 3 5 7785 6920 2167 Blue 10
8 AM Tue 52 53 NNW 2 3 8316 8002 3249 Blue 14
9 AM Tue 56 59 NNE 2 2 10793 9358 4605 Blue 20
10 AM Tue 60 65 N 3 3 11602 11378 6625 Blue 26
11 AM Tue 63 69 N 5 5 12445 11796 7043 Blue 30
12 Noon Tue 66 73 NNE 4 5 12999 12547 7794 Blue 34
1 PM Tue 69 77 N 4 5 13834 13098 8345 Blue 38
2 PM Tue 71 78 N 5 6 14761 13236 8483 Blue 39
3 PM Tue 71 76 NNW 7 8 13402 12960 8207 Blue 37
4 PM Tue 72 75 NNW 7 8 13276 12823 8070 Blue 36
5 PM Tue 71 72 NW 6 7 12861 12409 7656 Blue 33
6 PM Tue 70 70 WNW 4 5 12583 12049 7296 Blue 31
7 PM Tue 67 67 W 2 4 12112 11521 6768 Blue 28
8 PM Tue 64 64 SW 3 6 11535 11203 6450 Blue 25
9 PM Tue 62 62 SSW 5 9 11409 10688 5935 Blue 23
10 PM Tue 60 60 S 4 8 11065 9743 4990 Blue 21
11 PM Tue 59 59 S 4 8 10793 9358 4605 Blue 20

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst