Detailed Predictions for: Ord
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.403, -117.183, 4753
LZ Altitude (f): 1614
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

13 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 81 81 S 8 14 3933 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 78 78 S 8 14 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 78 78 S 6 13 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 76 76 S 6 13 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 75 75 SSE 6 13 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 75 75 SSE 6 12 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 73 73 SSE 6 12 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 74 74 S 4 10 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 77 78 S 3 8 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 83 85 SSE 4 9 4405 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 90 93 S 6 12 10866 7391 2638 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 94 97 S 9 16 17368 11740 6987 White 12
12 Noon Sat 96 100 S 9 16 17963 17239 12486 White 15
1 PM Sat 95 99 S 6 12 17766 16496 11743 White 14
2 PM Sat 95 99 SSE 6 13 17766 16496 11743 White 14
3 PM Sat 96 99 S 12 20 17766 16496 11743 White 14
4 PM Sat 94 96 S 18 29 17021 10818 6065 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 93 94 S 20 32 11975 8700 3947 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 91 91 S 17 27 8932 4753 0 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 89 89 S 14 24 5915 4753 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 88 88 S 12 20 4727 4753 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 86 86 S 10 17 4512 4753 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 83 83 S 8 14 4170 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 81 81 S 6 13 3933 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 78 78 S 5 12 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 76 76 S 5 11 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 75 75 S 5 11 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 74 74 S 5 11 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 72 72 S 5 11 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 72 72 S 5 10 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 69 69 S 4 9 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 70 70 SW 3 8 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 72 73 SW 2 6 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 78 80 SW 2 6 3814 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 83 87 SSW 2 6 4619 4753 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 86 90 SSW 3 8 7532 4753 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 90 95 S 5 11 15970 10110 5357 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 91 96 S 9 16 17021 10818 6065 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 89 94 S 11 19 11975 8700 3947 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 90 94 S 13 21 11975 8700 3947 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 91 94 S 14 24 11975 8700 3947 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 87 89 S 14 24 5915 4753 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 89 90 S 14 24 7532 4753 0 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 86 86 S 14 23 4512 4753 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 83 83 S 13 23 4170 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 78 78 S 13 21 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 80 80 SSW 12 21 3814 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 75 75 SSW 12 20 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 74 74 SSW 11 19 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 75 75 SSW 10 17 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 71 71 S 9 16 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 75 75 S 8 13 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 70 70 S 6 12 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 68 68 S 5 11 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 73 73 S 5 10 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 75 75 SSW 3 9 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 70 71 WSW 3 9 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 85 88 W 4 10 4727 4753 0 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 80 85 WNW 5 11 4405 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 83 90 WNW 6 13 7532 4753 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 91 99 W 8 14 17766 16496 11743 White 14
1 PM Mon 85 93 WSW 10 17 10866 7391 2638 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 87 95 SW 13 21 15970 10110 5357 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 86 92 SW 16 25 10349 5816 1063 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 92 97 SW 17 27 17368 11740 6987 White 12
5 PM Mon 85 88 SSW 18 28 4727 4753 0 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 91 92 SSW 17 27 10349 5816 1063 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 88 88 SSW 17 27 4727 4753 0 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 81 81 SSW 16 25 3933 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 79 79 SSW 14 24 3695 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 78 78 SSW 13 23 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 74 74 SSW 11 19 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 71 71 SSW 5 11 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 70 70 SSW 4 10 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 70 70 SSW 9 16 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 70 70 SSW 4 9 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 69 69 S 3 9 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 68 68 SSW 8 14 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 67 67 SSW 8 14 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 68 68 SSW 8 14 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 70 71 WSW 8 14 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 75 78 WSW 8 14 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 81 86 WSW 8 14 4512 4753 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 87 94 W 11 19 11975 8700 3947 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 90 98 W 11 19 17567 12863 8110 White 13
1 PM Tue 92 100 W 11 19 17963 17239 12486 White 15
2 PM Tue 91 99 WSW 14 24 17766 16496 11743 White 14
3 PM Tue 91 97 WSW 14 24 17368 11740 6987 White 12
4 PM Tue 90 95 WSW 14 24 15970 10110 5357 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 89 92 SW 16 25 10349 5816 1063 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 88 89 SW 16 25 5915 4753 0 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 87 87 SW 16 25 4619 4753 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 85 85 SSW 13 21 4405 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 82 82 SSW 13 21 4051 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 78 78 SSW 13 21 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 75 75 SSW 10 18 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 73 73 SSW 10 18 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 72 72 SSW 10 18 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 71 71 SSW 10 17 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 70 70 SSW 10 17 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 68 68 SSW 10 17 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 67 67 SSW 8 14 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 66 66 SSW 8 14 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 66 66 SSW 8 14 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 69 70 SW 8 14 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 74 77 SW 8 14 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 81 86 SW 8 14 4512 4753 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 86 93 WSW 10 18 10866 7391 2638 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 90 98 WSW 10 18 17567 12863 8110 White 13
1 PM Wed 92 100 WSW 10 18 17963 17239 12486 White 15
2 PM Wed 91 99 SW 14 24 17766 16496 11743 White 14
3 PM Wed 92 98 SW 14 24 17567 12863 8110 White 13
4 PM Wed 91 95 SW 14 24 15970 10110 5357 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 90 92 SW 14 24 10349 5816 1063 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 89 90 SW 14 24 7532 4753 0 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 87 87 SW 14 24 4619 4753 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 85 85 SSW 12 20 4405 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 82 82 SSW 12 20 4051 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 78 78 SSW 12 20 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 75 75 SSW 9 16 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 73 73 SSW 9 16 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 71 71 SSW 9 16 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 70 70 SSW 6 13 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 69 69 SSW 6 13 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 68 68 SSW 6 13 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 67 67 SSW 5 12 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 66 66 SSW 5 12 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 66 66 SSW 5 12 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 69 70 SW 5 10 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 74 77 SW 5 10 3655 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 81 86 SW 5 10 4512 4753 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 87 94 W 6 13 11975 8700 3947 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 90 98 W 6 13 17567 12863 8110 White 13
1 PM Thu 92 100 W 6 13 17963 17239 12486 White 15
2 PM Thu 92 100 SW 11 18 17963 17239 12486 White 15
3 PM Thu 93 99 SW 11 18 17766 16496 11743 White 14
4 PM Thu 92 96 SW 11 18 17021 10818 6065 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 91 93 SW 13 21 10866 7391 2638 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 89 90 SW 13 21 7532 4753 0 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 88 88 SW 13 21 4727 4753 0 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 86 86 SW 10 18 4512 4753 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 83 83 SW 10 18 4170 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 80 80 SW 10 18 3814 4753 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst