Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.5740107668, -116.89399273, 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 24 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 NW 5 11 2226 1550 0 White 1
1 AM Wed 56 56 WNW 5 11 2226 1550 0 White 1
2 AM Wed 55 55 WNW 4 10 2002 1550 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 W 4 9 2002 1550 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 WNW 4 10 2002 1550 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 WNW 4 10 2002 1550 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 WNW 5 10 2002 1550 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 WNW 5 10 486 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 55 WNW 5 12 2002 1550 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 56 57 NW 6 12 2451 1550 0 White 2
10 AM Wed 57 59 WNW 8 13 2889 2346 796 White 4
11 AM Wed 60 65 WNW 9 16 4176 4176 2626 White 10
12 Noon Wed 62 68 WNW 10 18 4311 4223 2673 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 63 69 WNW 12 20 4372 4228 2678 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 63 69 WNW 13 23 4372 4228 2678 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 63 68 WNW 13 23 4311 4223 2673 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 62 65 WNW 13 23 4176 4176 2626 White 10
5 PM Wed 62 62 WNW 13 23 3534 3427 1877 White 7
6 PM Wed 61 61 WNW 13 23 3320 2996 1446 White 6
7 PM Wed 58 58 WNW 13 21 2673 2105 555 White 3
8 PM Wed 57 57 NW 12 21 2451 1550 0 White 2
9 PM Wed 56 56 NW 12 20 2226 1550 0 White 1
10 PM Wed 57 57 NW 11 19 2451 1550 0 White 2
11 PM Wed 57 57 NW 11 18 2451 1550 0 White 2
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 NW 10 18 2451 1550 0 White 2
1 AM Thu 56 56 NW 10 17 2226 1550 0 White 1
2 AM Thu 56 56 NW 9 17 2226 1550 0 White 1
3 AM Thu 57 57 NW 9 16 2451 1550 0 White 2
4 AM Thu 56 56 WNW 9 16 2226 1550 0 White 1
5 AM Thu 56 56 WNW 8 14 2226 1550 0 White 1
6 AM Thu 56 56 WNW 8 14 2226 1550 0 White 1
7 AM Thu 56 56 NW 8 13 2226 1550 0 White 1
8 AM Thu 56 56 NW 6 13 2226 1550 0 White 1
9 AM Thu 56 56 NW 6 13 2226 1550 0 White 1
10 AM Thu 57 57 NW 6 13 2451 1550 0 White 2
11 AM Thu 59 60 NW 8 13 3104 2587 1037 White 5
12 Noon Thu 60 61 WNW 9 16 3320 2996 1446 White 6
1 PM Thu 61 62 W 11 18 3534 3427 1877 White 7
2 PM Thu 61 62 W 12 20 3534 3427 1877 White 7
3 PM Thu 61 62 W 12 21 3534 3427 1877 White 7
4 PM Thu 60 60 W 12 21 3104 2587 1037 White 5
5 PM Thu 59 59 W 12 20 2889 2346 796 White 4
6 PM Thu 58 58 W 11 19 2673 2105 555 White 3
7 PM Thu 56 56 W 11 18 2226 1550 0 White 1
8 PM Thu 55 55 W 10 17 2002 1550 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 55 55 WNW 10 17 2002 1550 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 55 55 WNW 9 16 2002 1550 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 55 55 WNW 9 16 2002 1550 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 WNW 8 14 2002 1550 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 55 55 WNW 6 13 2002 1550 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 WNW 6 12 2002 1550 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 55 55 W 5 12 2002 1550 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 55 55 W 6 12 2002 1550 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 WSW 6 12 486 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 SW 5 11 486 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 54 SSW 5 11 486 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 55 S 5 11 2002 1550 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 56 56 SSW 6 13 2226 1550 0 White 1
10 AM Fri 58 58 SW 9 16 2673 2105 555 White 3
11 AM Fri 59 60 SW 10 18 3104 2587 1037 White 5
12 Noon Fri 60 62 WSW 11 19 3534 3427 1877 White 7
1 PM Fri 61 63 WSW 12 20 3749 3749 2199 White 8
2 PM Fri 61 63 WSW 13 21 3749 3749 2199 White 8
3 PM Fri 61 62 W 13 23 3534 3427 1877 White 7
4 PM Fri 61 62 W 13 23 3534 3427 1877 White 7
5 PM Fri 60 60 W 14 23 3104 2587 1037 White 5
6 PM Fri 58 58 W 14 23 2673 2105 555 White 3
7 PM Fri 57 57 W 13 23 2451 1550 0 White 2
8 PM Fri 56 56 W 13 23 2226 1550 0 White 1
9 PM Fri 56 56 W 13 23 2226 1550 0 White 1
10 PM Fri 56 56 W 13 21 2226 1550 0 White 1
11 PM Fri 56 56 W 12 21 2226 1550 0 White 1
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 W 12 20 2226 1550 0 White 1
1 AM Sat 56 56 W 11 19 2226 1550 0 White 1
2 AM Sat 55 55 WSW 11 18 2002 1550 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 55 55 W 10 17 2002 1550 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 55 55 W 9 14 2002 1550 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 55 55 W 8 14 2002 1550 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 W 8 14 486 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 W 8 14 486 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 55 WSW 8 13 2002 1550 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 57 57 WSW 8 13 2451 1550 0 White 2
10 AM Sat 60 61 WSW 8 13 3320 2996 1446 White 6
11 AM Sat 62 66 SW 10 17 4229 4212 2662 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 64 68 SW 10 17 4311 4223 2673 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 65 69 SW 10 17 4372 4228 2678 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 65 69 WSW 12 20 4372 4228 2678 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 65 68 WSW 12 20 4311 4223 2673 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 65 67 WSW 12 20 4254 4217 2667 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 63 64 W 11 19 3963 3963 2413 White 9
6 PM Sat 62 62 W 11 19 3534 3427 1877 White 7
7 PM Sat 59 59 W 11 19 2889 2346 796 White 4
8 PM Sat 58 58 W 8 14 2673 2105 555 White 3
9 PM Sat 56 56 W 8 14 2226 1550 0 White 1
10 PM Sat 55 55 W 8 14 2002 1550 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 55 55 SW 4 10 2002 1550 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 SW 4 10 486 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 54 SW 4 10 486 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 53 SSE 4 9 486 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 53 SSE 4 9 486 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 52 SSE 4 9 486 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 ESE 4 10 486 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 53 ESE 4 10 486 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 53 ESE 4 10 486 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 56 S 4 9 2226 1550 0 White 1
9 AM Sun 58 60 S 4 9 3104 2587 1037 White 5
10 AM Sun 62 65 S 4 9 4176 4176 2626 White 10
11 AM Sun 66 72 W 6 13 4553 4362 2812 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 68 75 W 6 13 4882 4544 2994 Blue 20
1 PM Sun 70 78 W 6 13 5537 4866 3316 Blue 23
2 PM Sun 70 77 W 11 19 5295 4753 3203 Blue 22
3 PM Sun 70 75 W 11 19 4882 4544 2994 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 69 72 W 11 19 4553 4362 2812 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 68 69 WNW 11 18 4372 4228 2678 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 66 66 WNW 11 18 4229 4212 2662 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 63 63 WNW 11 18 3749 3749 2199 White 8
8 PM Sun 60 60 WNW 6 13 3104 2587 1037 White 5
9 PM Sun 59 59 WNW 6 13 2889 2346 796 White 4
10 PM Sun 58 58 WNW 6 13 2673 2105 555 White 3
11 PM Sun 57 57 SSW 3 8 2451 1550 0 White 2
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 SSW 3 8 2451 1550 0 White 2
1 AM Mon 56 56 SSW 3 8 2226 1550 0 White 1
2 AM Mon 56 56 SE 4 9 2226 1550 0 White 1
3 AM Mon 55 55 SE 4 9 2002 1550 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 SE 4 9 486 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 SE 3 8 486 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 55 SE 3 8 2002 1550 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 56 56 SE 3 8 2226 1550 0 White 1
8 AM Mon 58 59 S 4 9 2889 2346 796 White 4
9 AM Mon 62 65 S 4 9 4176 4176 2626 White 10
10 AM Mon 66 71 S 4 9 4480 4304 2754 Blue 16
11 AM Mon 71 77 W 8 14 5295 4753 3203 Blue 22
12 Noon Mon 73 80 W 8 14 6018 5259 3709 Blue 25
1 PM Mon 74 81 W 8 14 6259 5500 3950 Blue 26
2 PM Mon 74 81 W 11 19 6259 5500 3950 Blue 26
3 PM Mon 74 79 W 11 19 5778 5018 3468 Blue 24
4 PM Mon 73 76 W 11 19 5052 4640 3090 Blue 21
5 PM Mon 72 73 WNW 11 19 4654 4433 2883 Blue 18
6 PM Mon 69 69 WNW 11 19 4372 4228 2678 Blue 14
7 PM Mon 65 65 WNW 11 19 4176 4176 2626 White 10
8 PM Mon 63 63 WNW 8 14 3749 3749 2199 White 8
9 PM Mon 61 61 WNW 8 14 3320 2996 1446 White 6
10 PM Mon 60 60 WNW 8 14 3104 2587 1037 White 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst