Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.5740107668, -116.89399273, 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

13 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 NW 3 8 1514 1550 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 64 64 NW 2 6 1514 1550 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 64 64 NW 2 6 1514 1550 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 64 64 NW 2 6 1514 1550 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 63 63 WNW 2 5 672 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 63 63 WNW 2 5 672 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 63 NW 2 6 672 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 63 63 NW 2 6 672 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 64 W 2 6 1514 1550 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 67 68 WSW 3 8 1935 1716 166 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 72 74 W 4 9 2208 2101 551 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 77 82 W 6 12 2386 2319 769 Blue 18
12 Noon Sat 79 85 W 8 13 2466 2385 835 Blue 21
1 PM Sat 80 86 WNW 9 16 2541 2408 858 Blue 22
2 PM Sat 80 86 W 8 14 2541 2408 858 Blue 22
3 PM Sat 81 86 W 9 16 2541 2408 858 Blue 22
4 PM Sat 80 83 NW 6 12 2409 2341 791 Blue 19
5 PM Sat 78 80 WNW 11 18 2342 2274 724 Blue 16
6 PM Sat 76 77 WNW 9 16 2275 2207 657 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 73 73 NW 6 13 2181 2062 512 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 69 69 NW 5 11 2007 1788 238 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 67 67 NW 4 9 1863 1550 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 66 66 NW 3 8 1791 1550 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 66 66 NW 2 6 1791 1550 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sun 65 65 NW 2 6 1719 1550 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 65 65 NW 2 6 1719 1550 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 65 65 WNW 2 6 1719 1550 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 65 65 NW 3 8 1719 1550 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 65 65 NW 3 8 1719 1550 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 64 64 NW 3 9 1514 1550 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 64 64 WNW 3 8 1514 1550 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 64 64 WNW 3 8 1514 1550 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 65 65 WNW 3 8 1719 1550 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 68 69 WNW 4 9 2007 1788 238 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 73 75 WNW 6 12 2231 2140 590 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 76 81 WNW 8 14 2364 2297 747 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 78 84 WNW 9 16 2438 2363 813 Blue 20
1 PM Sun 79 86 WNW 9 16 2541 2408 858 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 79 85 WNW 9 16 2466 2385 835 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 79 84 WNW 9 16 2438 2363 813 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 79 83 WNW 9 16 2409 2341 791 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 77 79 WNW 9 16 2320 2252 702 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 77 78 WNW 9 16 2298 2229 679 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 76 76 NW 8 14 2253 2180 630 Blue 12
8 PM Sun 68 68 NW 8 13 1935 1716 166 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 72 72 NW 6 12 2142 2004 454 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 70 70 NW 5 11 2063 1860 310 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 64 64 NW 4 10 1514 1550 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 NW 4 9 1935 1716 166 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 68 68 NW 4 9 1935 1716 166 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 64 64 NW 3 9 1514 1550 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 67 67 NW 3 8 1863 1550 0 Blue 3
4 AM Mon 67 67 NW 3 8 1863 1550 0 Blue 3
5 AM Mon 63 63 NW 2 6 672 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 65 65 NW 2 6 1719 1550 0 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 65 65 NW 3 9 1719 1550 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 63 63 NW 4 10 672 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 70 71 WNW 5 11 2103 1932 382 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 74 75 WNW 6 12 2231 2140 590 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 75 82 WNW 8 14 2386 2319 769 Blue 18
12 Noon Mon 79 87 WNW 10 17 2615 2436 886 Blue 23
1 PM Mon 78 86 WNW 10 18 2541 2408 858 Blue 22
2 PM Mon 78 86 WNW 11 19 2541 2408 858 Blue 22
3 PM Mon 78 84 WNW 11 19 2438 2363 813 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 78 82 WNW 11 18 2386 2319 769 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 76 78 WNW 10 18 2298 2229 679 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 75 76 WNW 10 17 2253 2180 630 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 73 73 WNW 9 14 2181 2062 512 Blue 9
8 PM Mon 68 68 WNW 8 14 1935 1716 166 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 69 69 WNW 8 13 2007 1788 238 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 68 68 NW 8 13 1935 1716 166 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 64 64 NW 5 11 1514 1550 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 62 62 NW 3 8 440 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 62 62 NW 2 6 440 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 63 63 NW 3 8 672 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 63 63 NW 2 5 672 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 63 63 NW 2 5 672 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 63 63 NNW 2 6 672 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 62 NNW 2 6 440 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 62 62 NNW 2 6 440 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 63 WNW 3 8 672 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 68 WNW 3 8 1935 1716 166 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 71 72 WNW 3 8 2142 2004 454 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 75 82 WNW 6 13 2386 2319 769 Blue 18
12 Noon Tue 78 86 WNW 6 13 2541 2408 858 Blue 22
1 PM Tue 79 87 WNW 6 13 2615 2436 886 Blue 23
2 PM Tue 78 86 WNW 10 18 2541 2408 858 Blue 22
3 PM Tue 79 85 WNW 10 18 2466 2385 835 Blue 21
4 PM Tue 78 82 WNW 10 18 2386 2319 769 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 77 79 WNW 10 18 2320 2252 702 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 74 75 WNW 10 18 2231 2140 590 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 71 71 WNW 10 18 2103 1932 382 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 68 68 WNW 8 14 1935 1716 166 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 66 66 WNW 8 14 1791 1550 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 65 65 WNW 8 14 1719 1550 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 64 64 WNW 5 10 1514 1550 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 WNW 5 10 1514 1550 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 64 64 WNW 5 10 1514 1550 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 64 64 NW 3 8 1514 1550 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 64 64 NW 3 8 1514 1550 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 63 63 NW 3 8 672 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 63 63 NNW 2 6 672 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 63 NNW 2 6 672 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 63 NNW 2 6 672 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 65 NW 3 8 1719 1550 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 68 68 NW 3 8 1935 1716 166 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 72 72 NW 3 8 2142 2004 454 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 75 81 WNW 6 13 2364 2297 747 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 78 86 WNW 6 13 2541 2408 858 Blue 22
1 PM Wed 79 87 WNW 6 13 2615 2436 886 Blue 23
2 PM Wed 79 86 WNW 10 17 2541 2408 858 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 80 86 WNW 10 17 2541 2408 858 Blue 22
4 PM Wed 79 83 WNW 10 17 2409 2341 791 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 77 79 WNW 10 17 2320 2252 702 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 74 75 WNW 10 17 2231 2140 590 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 71 71 WNW 10 17 2103 1932 382 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 69 69 WNW 8 14 2007 1788 238 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 67 67 WNW 8 14 1863 1550 0 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 66 66 WNW 8 14 1791 1550 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 65 65 NW 5 10 1719 1550 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 NW 5 10 1719 1550 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 64 64 NW 5 10 1514 1550 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 64 64 NNW 2 6 1514 1550 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 64 64 NNW 2 6 1514 1550 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 63 63 NNW 2 6 672 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 63 63 N 2 6 672 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 63 63 N 2 6 672 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 64 64 N 2 6 1514 1550 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 66 66 NW 2 6 1791 1550 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 69 69 NW 2 6 2007 1788 238 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 73 73 NW 2 6 2181 2062 512 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 77 83 WNW 6 12 2409 2341 791 Blue 19
12 Noon Thu 79 86 WNW 6 12 2541 2408 858 Blue 22
1 PM Thu 81 89 WNW 6 12 2735 2537 987 Blue 25
2 PM Thu 80 87 W 9 16 2615 2436 886 Blue 23
3 PM Thu 81 87 W 9 16 2615 2436 886 Blue 23
4 PM Thu 80 84 W 9 16 2438 2363 813 Blue 20
5 PM Thu 79 81 WNW 9 16 2364 2297 747 Blue 17
6 PM Thu 76 77 WNW 9 16 2275 2207 657 Blue 13
7 PM Thu 73 73 WNW 9 16 2181 2062 512 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 71 71 WNW 5 12 2103 1932 382 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 69 69 WNW 5 12 2007 1788 238 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 68 68 WNW 5 12 1935 1716 166 Blue 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst