Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.329, -116.97225, 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 53 48 E 2 6 945 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 48 E 2 6 945 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 47 E 2 6 945 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 47 E 2 6 945 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 47 ENE 2 6 945 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 47 ENE 2 6 945 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 47 ENE 2 6 945 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 47 ENE 2 5 945 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 47 ENE 1 1 945 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 51 NE 1 5 945 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 62 58 WSW 3 8 945 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 67 64 WSW 4 9 1265 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 69 66 WSW 4 10 1461 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 71 67 W 5 11 1614 3200 0 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 72 68 W 4 10 1764 3200 0 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 70 65 W 4 10 1351 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 66 61 W 3 6 1010 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 61 56 WSW 2 6 945 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 57 52 S 2 5 945 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 56 51 SE 1 5 945 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 55 50 SE 1 5 945 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 49 SE 1 4 945 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 49 SE 1 5 945 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 49 SE 2 6 945 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 53 48 ESE 3 8 945 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 47 ESE 3 9 945 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 46 ESE 3 8 945 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 51 46 ESE 3 8 945 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 51 46 ESE 3 8 945 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 46 ESE 4 9 945 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 46 ESE 5 11 945 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 46 ESE 6 12 945 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 46 SE 5 11 945 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 49 S 4 10 945 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 56 S 4 10 945 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 64 61 S 5 11 1010 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 68 65 S 6 13 1351 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 69 66 S 9 14 1461 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 70 66 S 9 16 1461 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 68 63 S 8 14 1180 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 65 60 S 6 12 945 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 62 57 SSE 5 11 945 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 58 53 SE 3 8 945 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 54 49 ESE 2 6 945 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 53 48 E 1 5 945 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 52 47 ENE 1 4 945 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 47 NE 1 4 945 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 52 47 NE 1 5 945 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 51 46 ENE 1 5 945 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 46 ENE 2 5 945 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 46 ENE 2 6 945 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 45 ENE 3 8 945 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 46 ENE 4 9 945 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 44 ENE 5 11 945 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 43 ENE 6 12 945 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 44 ENE 6 12 945 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 47 ENE 5 11 945 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 52 NE 4 9 945 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 58 NE 3 9 945 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 64 61 N 5 10 1010 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 67 64 NW 6 13 1265 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 68 65 W 9 16 1351 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 68 64 W 8 14 1265 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 67 62 WNW 6 13 1095 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 65 60 NW 5 11 945 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 62 57 NNW 5 11 945 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 58 53 NNE 5 11 945 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 56 51 NE 5 11 945 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 54 49 NE 6 12 945 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 54 49 ENE 8 13 945 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 49 ENE 9 16 945 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 54 49 ENE 9 16 945 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 49 ENE 10 17 945 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 48 ENE 10 17 945 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 48 ENE 9 16 945 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 48 ENE 8 14 945 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 47 ENE 8 14 945 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 46 ENE 8 14 945 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 46 ENE 8 14 945 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 47 ENE 8 12 945 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 50 ENE 8 12 945 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 55 ENE 8 12 945 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 63 60 ENE 8 12 945 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 67 64 ENE 8 12 1265 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 70 67 ENE 8 12 1614 3200 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 71 68 NNW 9 13 1764 3200 0 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 71 67 NNW 9 13 1614 3200 0 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 70 65 NNW 9 13 1351 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 68 63 NE 8 12 1180 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 65 60 NE 8 12 945 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 61 56 NE 8 12 945 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 58 53 E 8 11 945 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 57 52 E 8 11 945 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 56 51 E 8 11 945 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 51 E 9 12 945 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 51 E 9 12 945 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 51 E 9 12 945 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 51 E 9 13 945 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 51 E 9 13 945 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 51 E 9 13 945 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 51 ENE 10 14 945 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 50 ENE 10 14 945 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 50 ENE 10 14 945 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 50 E 10 16 945 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 57 52 E 10 16 945 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 57 E 10 16 945 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 65 61 E 10 16 1010 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 68 65 E 10 16 1351 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 70 67 E 10 16 1614 3200 0 Blue 1
1 PM Fri 72 69 E 12 18 1877 3200 0 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 72 68 E 12 18 1764 3200 0 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 71 66 E 12 18 1461 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 69 64 E 10 16 1265 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 66 61 E 10 16 1010 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 62 57 E 10 16 945 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 60 55 E 9 13 945 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 59 54 E 9 13 945 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 58 53 E 9 13 945 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 59 54 E 9 14 945 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 59 54 E 9 14 945 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 59 54 E 9 14 945 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 59 54 E 9 14 945 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 59 54 E 9 14 945 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 54 E 9 14 945 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 53 E 10 14 945 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 57 52 E 10 14 945 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 57 52 E 10 14 945 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 52 E 9 14 945 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 59 54 E 9 14 945 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 58 E 9 14 945 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 65 61 E 11 16 1010 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 68 65 E 11 16 1351 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 70 67 E 11 16 1614 3200 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 72 69 E 11 17 1877 3200 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sat 72 68 E 11 17 1764 3200 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sat 71 66 E 11 17 1461 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 69 64 E 10 14 1265 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 66 61 E 10 14 1010 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 62 57 E 10 14 945 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 60 55 E 8 12 945 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 59 54 E 8 12 945 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 59 54 E 8 12 945 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 59 54 E 9 12 945 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst