Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.329, -116.97225, 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 23 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 53 48 S 2 6 440 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 48 S 2 6 440 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 48 S 2 6 440 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 48 S 2 6 440 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 48 S 2 6 440 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 47 S 2 6 440 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 47 S 2 6 440 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 47 S 3 6 440 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 47 SSW 4 9 440 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 47 SW 4 9 440 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 49 WSW 4 10 440 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 56 56 WSW 5 11 2821 3200 0 White 4
12 Noon Tue 58 59 WSW 6 12 3473 3200 0 White 7
1 PM Tue 59 60 WSW 6 13 3690 3597 397 White 8
2 PM Tue 60 60 WSW 8 14 3690 3597 397 White 8
3 PM Tue 60 59 WSW 8 14 3473 3200 0 White 7
4 PM Tue 60 58 WSW 8 14 3256 3200 0 White 6
5 PM Tue 60 56 W 6 13 2821 3200 0 White 4
6 PM Tue 59 54 W 5 11 2378 3200 0 White 2
7 PM Tue 54 49 WSW 4 9 440 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 51 46 WSW 3 8 440 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 50 45 WSW 2 6 440 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 45 SW 2 6 440 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 45 SSW 2 6 440 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 45 SSW 2 6 440 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 50 45 SW 2 6 440 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 45 SW 2 6 440 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 45 WSW 2 5 440 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 45 WNW 1 5 440 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 45 NW 1 5 440 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 45 W 2 5 440 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 45 SW 2 6 440 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 45 SSW 3 8 440 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 51 47 SW 4 9 440 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 51 WSW 5 10 1057 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 56 57 W 6 12 3038 3200 0 White 5
12 Noon Wed 58 60 W 8 14 3690 3597 397 White 8
1 PM Wed 60 62 W 10 17 3755 3708 508 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 61 62 W 11 18 3755 3708 508 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 61 60 W 11 19 3690 3597 397 White 8
4 PM Wed 60 58 W 11 18 3256 3200 0 White 6
5 PM Wed 59 54 W 10 18 2378 3200 0 White 2
6 PM Wed 56 51 W 9 16 1057 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 53 48 W 8 13 440 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 50 45 W 6 12 440 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 45 W 5 11 440 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 45 W 4 10 440 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 45 W 4 9 440 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 45 W 4 9 440 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 45 W 4 10 440 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 45 W 5 10 440 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 45 WNW 4 10 440 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 45 WNW 4 10 440 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 45 WNW 4 10 440 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 45 W 4 9 440 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 45 SW 4 9 440 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 45 SSW 4 9 440 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 46 SSW 4 10 440 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 53 49 SW 5 10 440 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 54 53 SW 5 12 2155 3200 0 White 1
12 Noon Thu 56 55 SW 8 13 2601 3200 0 White 3
1 PM Thu 57 56 WSW 9 16 2821 3200 0 White 4
2 PM Thu 58 57 W 10 18 3038 3200 0 White 5
3 PM Thu 58 56 W 11 19 2821 3200 0 White 4
4 PM Thu 58 55 W 12 20 2601 3200 0 White 3
5 PM Thu 57 52 W 12 20 1811 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 55 50 W 11 20 440 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 52 47 WSW 10 18 440 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 51 46 WSW 9 16 440 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 50 45 WSW 8 13 440 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 45 WSW 5 11 440 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 46 WSW 5 10 440 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 46 WSW 5 10 440 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 46 SW 5 11 440 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 46 SW 6 12 440 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 46 SW 6 12 440 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 46 SSW 5 11 440 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 46 S 5 11 440 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 46 S 5 11 440 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 46 S 5 11 440 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 46 S 8 13 440 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 47 S 8 13 440 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 54 50 S 8 13 440 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 56 54 W 10 18 2378 3200 0 White 2
12 Noon Fri 58 56 W 10 18 2821 3200 0 White 4
1 PM Fri 59 57 W 10 18 3038 3200 0 White 5
2 PM Fri 60 58 WSW 13 23 3256 3200 0 White 6
3 PM Fri 62 59 WSW 13 23 3473 3200 0 White 7
4 PM Fri 62 58 WSW 13 23 3256 3200 0 White 6
5 PM Fri 62 57 WSW 14 23 3038 3200 0 White 5
6 PM Fri 60 55 WSW 14 23 2601 3200 0 White 3
7 PM Fri 58 53 WSW 14 23 2155 3200 0 White 1
8 PM Fri 56 51 SW 11 19 1057 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 54 49 SW 11 19 440 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 49 SW 11 19 440 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 53 48 SSW 10 17 440 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 53 48 SSW 10 17 440 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 48 SSW 10 17 440 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 47 SE 8 14 440 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 47 SE 8 14 440 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 46 SE 8 14 440 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 46 ESE 8 14 440 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 46 ESE 8 14 440 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 46 ESE 8 14 440 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 47 SSE 8 14 440 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 51 SSE 8 14 1057 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 54 SSE 8 14 2378 3200 0 White 2
11 AM Sat 61 60 SSW 9 16 3690 3597 397 White 8
12 Noon Sat 63 62 SSW 9 16 3755 3708 508 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 66 66 SSW 9 16 3815 3769 569 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 67 66 SW 12 20 3815 3769 569 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 69 67 SW 12 20 3830 3784 584 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 69 66 SW 12 20 3815 3769 569 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 68 64 WSW 11 18 3785 3739 539 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 65 60 WSW 11 18 3690 3597 397 White 8
7 PM Sat 61 56 WSW 11 18 2821 3200 0 White 4
8 PM Sat 58 53 SW 6 12 2155 3200 0 White 1
9 PM Sat 56 51 SW 6 12 1057 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 50 SW 6 12 440 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 49 ESE 4 10 440 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 48 ESE 4 10 440 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 53 48 ESE 4 10 440 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 47 NNE 4 10 440 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 47 NNE 4 10 440 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 46 NNE 4 10 440 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 46 N 4 10 440 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 47 N 4 10 440 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 49 N 4 10 440 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 52 NW 4 10 1811 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 57 NW 4 10 3038 3200 0 White 5
10 AM Sun 65 64 NW 4 10 3785 3739 539 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 69 70 W 8 14 3924 3828 628 Blue 18
12 Noon Sun 72 74 W 8 14 4886 4173 973 Blue 22
1 PM Sun 74 76 W 8 14 5082 4661 1461 Blue 24
2 PM Sun 75 77 W 10 18 5166 4872 1672 Blue 25
3 PM Sun 76 76 W 10 18 5082 4661 1461 Blue 24
4 PM Sun 75 73 W 10 18 4684 3901 701 Blue 21
5 PM Sun 74 70 W 10 17 3924 3828 628 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 70 65 W 10 17 3800 3754 554 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 66 61 W 10 17 3740 3670 470 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 62 57 N 6 12 3038 3200 0 White 5
9 PM Sun 60 55 N 6 12 2601 3200 0 White 3
10 PM Sun 59 54 N 6 12 2378 3200 0 White 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst