Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.8223, -116.9588, 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time UTC:

 260712/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sun 73 68 ESE 1 1 1872 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 72 67 S 1 1 1842 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 69 64 SSE 1 1 1750 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 68 63 ESE 0 0 1720 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 67 62 SSE 2 5 1689 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 66 61 E 2 6 1686 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 65 60 ENE 2 6 1686 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 67 62 ESE 1 5 1689 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 70 65 S 0 0 1781 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 75 71 SW 2 6 2053 2260 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 79 76 S 3 8 2198 2260 0 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 83 84 SW 2 6 3059 2487 227 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 87 89 SW 5 11 3533 3232 972 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 89 91 SW 6 12 3947 3409 1149 Blue 21
2 PM Sun 90 90 S 5 11 3736 3321 1061 Blue 20
3 PM Sun 92 91 W 6 12 3947 3409 1149 Blue 21
4 PM Sun 91 89 WSW 8 14 3533 3232 972 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 90 87 WSW 5 11 3325 3056 796 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 89 85 W 6 12 3148 2683 423 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 86 81 SW 5 11 2489 2260 0 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 84 79 SSW 5 10 2313 2260 0 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 80 75 SW 2 6 2174 2260 0 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 77 72 W 1 5 2100 2260 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 75 70 NW 1 1 1956 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 74 69 NNW 0 0 1903 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 72 67 N 1 1 1842 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 70 65 E 0 0 1781 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 69 64 ESE 1 1 1750 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 68 63 SE 1 1 1720 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 67 62 ESE 1 1 1689 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 66 61 NNE 1 1 1686 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 68 63 SSW 1 4 1720 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 70 65 SSW 2 5 1781 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 74 70 WSW 2 6 1956 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 78 74 W 3 9 2150 2260 0 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 81 79 W 4 10 2313 2260 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 85 83 SW 5 11 2971 2399 139 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 87 86 S 4 10 3237 2961 701 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 88 88 E 8 13 3414 3144 884 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 91 90 S 8 14 3736 3321 1061 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 89 87 SW 11 20 3325 3056 796 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 89 86 WSW 9 17 3237 2961 701 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 88 83 WSW 8 14 2971 2399 139 Blue 13
7 PM Mon 86 81 SW 5 11 2489 2260 0 Blue 11
8 PM Mon 84 79 S 4 9 2313 2260 0 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 81 76 S 2 6 2198 2260 0 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 78 73 SSW 2 5 2125 2260 0 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 76 71 WSW 1 1 2053 2260 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 73 68 SSW 1 1 1872 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 71 66 SW 0 0 1811 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 69 64 NNW 1 1 1750 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 68 63 S 0 0 1720 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 67 62 WNW 0 0 1689 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 67 62 NW 1 1 1689 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 68 63 NNE 0 0 1720 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 70 65 NNE 0 0 1781 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 72 68 N 0 3 1872 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 76 73 W 1 5 2125 2260 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 80 79 W 3 9 2313 2260 0 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 84 85 W 5 10 3148 2683 423 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 88 90 W 6 12 3736 3321 1061 Blue 20
1 PM Tue 91 94 W 6 12 5251 3932 1672 Blue 24
2 PM Tue 93 95 W 6 12 5404 4722 2462 Blue 25
3 PM Tue 96 97 W 9 16 7387 5234 2974 Blue 27
4 PM Tue 97 96 W 10 17 5686 5081 2821 Blue 26
5 PM Tue 97 94 W 10 14 5251 3932 1672 Blue 24
6 PM Tue 96 92 W 9 16 4809 3526 1266 Blue 22
7 PM Tue 95 90 W 6 12 3736 3321 1061 Blue 20
8 PM Tue 92 87 W 4 8 3325 3056 796 Blue 17
9 PM Tue 89 84 W 2 6 3059 2487 227 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 85 80 W 1 5 2401 2260 0 Blue 10
11 PM Tue 82 77 W 1 4 2223 2260 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Wed 79 74 W 1 1 2150 2260 0 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 77 72 W 1 1 2100 2260 0 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 75 70 N 0 3 1956 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 74 69 N 0 0 1903 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 73 68 N 0 0 1872 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 73 68 N 0 3 1872 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 74 69 N 0 3 1903 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 76 71 N 0 3 2053 2260 0 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 79 75 N 0 3 2174 2260 0 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 83 80 N 0 3 2401 2260 0 Blue 10
10 AM Wed 88 87 N 0 3 3325 3056 796 Blue 17
11 AM Wed 92 92 WSW 4 10 4809 3526 1266 Blue 22
12 Noon Wed 94 95 WSW 4 10 5404 4722 2462 Blue 25
1 PM Wed 96 98 WSW 4 10 7965 5387 3127 Blue 28
2 PM Wed 97 98 SW 6 12 7965 5387 3127 Blue 28
3 PM Wed 98 98 SW 6 12 7965 5387 3127 Blue 28
4 PM Wed 98 97 SW 6 12 7387 5234 2974 Blue 27
5 PM Wed 98 95 WSW 10 14 5404 4722 2462 Blue 25
6 PM Wed 96 92 WSW 10 14 4809 3526 1266 Blue 22
7 PM Wed 94 89 WSW 10 14 3533 3232 972 Blue 19
8 PM Wed 92 87 WSW 4 9 3325 3056 796 Blue 17
9 PM Wed 89 84 WSW 4 9 3059 2487 227 Blue 14
10 PM Wed 86 81 WSW 4 9 2489 2260 0 Blue 11
11 PM Wed 83 78 S 0 4 2247 2260 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Thu 80 75 S 0 4 2174 2260 0 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 78 73 S 0 4 2125 2260 0 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 76 71 ENE 0 3 2053 2260 0 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 75 70 ENE 0 3 1956 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 74 69 ENE 0 3 1903 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 74 69 ENE 0 3 1903 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 75 70 ENE 0 3 1956 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 77 72 ENE 0 3 2100 2260 0 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 80 76 E 0 4 2198 2260 0 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 83 81 E 0 4 2489 2260 0 Blue 11
10 AM Thu 87 86 E 0 4 3237 2961 701 Blue 16
11 AM Thu 91 88 SSW 5 11 3414 3144 884 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 93 91 SSW 5 11 3947 3409 1149 Blue 21
1 PM Thu 95 93 SSW 5 11 5097 3723 1463 Blue 23
2 PM Thu 95 93 SSW 9 14 5097 3723 1463 Blue 23
3 PM Thu 95 92 SSW 9 14 4809 3526 1266 Blue 22
4 PM Thu 94 90 SSW 9 14 3736 3321 1061 Blue 20
5 PM Thu 92 88 SW 10 14 3414 3144 884 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 90 85 SW 10 14 3148 2683 423 Blue 15
7 PM Thu 89 84 SW 10 14 3059 2487 227 Blue 14
8 PM Thu 87 82 SW 4 8 2691 2311 51 Blue 12
9 PM Thu 84 79 SW 4 8 2313 2260 0 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 82 77 SW 4 8 2223 2260 0 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 79 74 SSW 1 4 2150 2260 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 76 71 SSW 1 4 2053 2260 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 74 69 SSW 1 4 1903 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 72 67 N 0 3 1842 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 71 66 N 0 3 1811 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 70 65 N 0 3 1781 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 70 65 N 0 3 1781 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 70 65 N 0 3 1781 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 71 66 N 0 3 1811 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 73 69 SSE 1 4 1903 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 76 73 SSE 1 4 2125 2260 0 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 80 78 SSE 1 4 2247 2260 0 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 83 81 WSW 5 10 2489 2260 0 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 86 84 WSW 5 10 3059 2487 227 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 88 86 WSW 5 10 3237 2961 701 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 89 87 WSW 9 14 3325 3056 796 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 89 87 WSW 9 14 3325 3056 796 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 89 86 WSW 9 14 3237 2961 701 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 87 83 WSW 10 16 2971 2399 139 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 86 81 WSW 10 16 2489 2260 0 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 84 79 WSW 10 16 2313 2260 0 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 82 77 WSW 6 10 2223 2260 0 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 80 75 WSW 6 10 2174 2260 0 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 78 73 WSW 6 10 2125 2260 0 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst