Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.8223, -116.9588, 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time UTC:

 250314/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 40 35 SW 6 12 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 39 34 SSW 2 6 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 38 33 SSE 3 9 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 38 33 SSE 5 10 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 37 32 SSE 4 10 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 37 32 S 4 10 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 38 33 S 4 9 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 37 32 S 4 9 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 37 32 SW 4 9 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 38 33 SW 3 8 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 38 33 SSW 4 9 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 38 33 S 4 9 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 38 33 SSE 5 11 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 38 33 SSE 5 10 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 39 34 SSE 5 11 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 40 35 SSE 6 12 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 42 37 SSE 6 12 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 44 39 S 8 14 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 44 39 S 8 14 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 44 39 SW 8 13 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 44 39 WSW 8 14 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 45 40 WSW 9 16 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 44 39 WSW 10 18 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 43 38 WSW 11 19 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 43 38 WSW 9 16 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 38 WSW 5 11 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 37 SW 3 9 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 41 36 SSW 4 9 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 40 35 S 5 11 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 39 34 SSE 6 13 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 34 SSE 8 13 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 34 SSE 6 13 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 40 35 SSE 6 13 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 41 37 S 6 12 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 44 41 S 6 12 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 47 46 SSW 5 11 3396 2260 0 White 1
12 Noon Sat 50 50 SSW 5 11 4265 4265 2005 White 5
1 PM Sat 52 52 SW 5 10 4696 4696 2436 White 7
2 PM Sat 54 54 SW 4 10 5122 5122 2862 White 9
3 PM Sat 56 54 SW 5 11 5122 5122 2862 White 9
4 PM Sat 57 54 WSW 5 11 5122 5122 2862 White 9
5 PM Sat 58 54 WSW 6 12 5122 5122 2862 White 9
6 PM Sat 56 51 SW 6 12 4481 4481 2221 White 6
7 PM Sat 55 50 S 6 12 4265 4265 2005 White 5
8 PM Sat 53 48 S 6 12 3832 2539 279 White 3
9 PM Sat 51 46 S 5 11 3396 2260 0 White 1
10 PM Sat 49 44 SSE 4 10 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 47 42 SE 4 9 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 41 SE 3 9 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 40 SE 3 9 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 39 SE 3 8 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 39 SE 3 8 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 39 SE 2 6 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 39 SE 2 5 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 39 ESE 2 5 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 40 E 2 5 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 42 ENE 2 6 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 46 N 2 6 3396 2260 0 White 1
10 AM Sun 54 51 WNW 3 8 4481 4481 2221 White 6
11 AM Sun 58 56 WSW 3 8 5547 5547 3287 White 11
12 Noon Sun 61 59 WSW 4 9 6178 6178 3918 White 14
1 PM Sun 64 63 SW 4 10 7010 7010 4750 White 18
2 PM Sun 65 63 SW 5 11 7010 7010 4750 White 18
3 PM Sun 67 64 SW 6 12 7218 7218 4958 White 19
4 PM Sun 68 64 SW 6 13 7218 7218 4958 White 19
5 PM Sun 67 62 SW 6 13 6803 6803 4543 White 17
6 PM Sun 66 61 SW 5 11 6596 6596 4336 White 16
7 PM Sun 63 58 WSW 3 8 5968 5968 3708 White 13
8 PM Sun 60 55 W 2 5 5335 5335 3075 White 10
9 PM Sun 57 52 W 1 5 4696 4696 2436 White 7
10 PM Sun 55 50 NW 1 5 4265 4265 2005 White 5
11 PM Sun 53 48 NNW 2 5 3832 2539 279 White 3
12 Midnight Mon 52 47 NNW 1 5 3614 2260 0 White 2
1 AM Mon 51 46 NNW 1 1 3396 2260 0 White 1
2 AM Mon 50 45 NNW 1 1 2736 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 45 N 1 1 2736 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 44 N 1 5 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 43 NNW 2 5 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 43 NNW 2 5 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 49 44 NNW 2 5 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 45 WSW 2 6 2736 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 52 47 WSW 2 6 3614 2260 0 White 2
10 AM Mon 55 51 WSW 2 6 4481 4481 2221 White 6
11 AM Mon 58 55 SW 6 12 5335 5335 3075 White 10
12 Noon Mon 60 58 SW 6 12 5968 5968 3708 White 13
1 PM Mon 62 60 SW 6 12 6387 6387 4127 White 15
2 PM Mon 63 61 WSW 13 23 6596 6596 4336 White 16
3 PM Mon 63 60 WSW 13 23 6387 6387 4127 White 15
4 PM Mon 62 58 WSW 13 23 5968 5968 3708 White 13
5 PM Mon 60 55 WSW 19 29 5335 5335 3075 White 10
6 PM Mon 58 53 WSW 19 29 4909 4909 2649 White 8
7 PM Mon 55 50 WSW 19 29 4265 4265 2005 White 5
8 PM Mon 53 48 SW 16 26 3832 2539 279 White 3
9 PM Mon 51 46 SW 16 26 3396 2260 0 White 1
10 PM Mon 49 44 SW 16 26 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 47 42 WSW 10 18 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 46 41 WSW 10 18 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 40 WSW 10 18 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 45 40 WSW 6 13 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 39 WSW 6 13 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 38 WSW 6 13 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 37 WSW 5 10 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 41 36 WSW 5 10 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 40 35 WSW 5 10 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 41 36 W 5 12 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 42 38 W 5 12 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 45 42 W 5 12 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 48 46 W 11 18 3396 2260 0 White 1
12 Noon Tue 51 50 W 11 18 4265 4265 2005 White 5
1 PM Tue 53 52 W 11 18 4696 4696 2436 White 7
2 PM Tue 55 53 W 12 21 4909 4909 2649 White 8
3 PM Tue 57 55 W 12 21 5335 5335 3075 White 10
4 PM Tue 58 54 W 12 21 5122 5122 2862 White 9
5 PM Tue 58 54 W 13 21 5122 5122 2862 White 9
6 PM Tue 56 51 W 13 21 4481 4481 2221 White 6
7 PM Tue 55 50 W 13 21 4265 4265 2005 White 5
8 PM Tue 53 48 W 6 13 3832 2539 279 White 3
9 PM Tue 50 45 W 6 13 2736 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 48 43 W 6 13 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 46 41 ENE 2 6 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 45 40 ENE 2 6 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 44 39 ENE 2 6 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 44 39 ENE 3 8 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 38 ENE 3 8 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 38 ENE 3 8 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 38 ENE 5 10 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 38 ENE 5 10 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 39 ENE 5 10 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 45 40 ENE 5 12 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 48 44 ENE 5 12 1048 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 52 50 ENE 5 12 4265 4265 2005 White 5
11 AM Wed 56 55 E 6 12 5335 5335 3075 White 10
12 Noon Wed 59 59 E 6 12 6178 6178 3918 White 14
1 PM Wed 61 61 E 6 12 6596 6596 4336 White 16
2 PM Wed 63 63 E 6 12 7010 7010 4750 White 18
3 PM Wed 64 63 E 6 12 7010 7010 4750 White 18
4 PM Wed 64 61 E 6 12 6596 6596 4336 White 16
5 PM Wed 64 60 WNW 5 12 6387 6387 4127 White 15
6 PM Wed 63 58 WNW 5 12 5968 5968 3708 White 13
7 PM Wed 61 56 WNW 5 12 5547 5547 3287 White 11
8 PM Wed 58 53 ENE 3 8 4909 4909 2649 White 8
9 PM Wed 55 50 ENE 3 8 4265 4265 2005 White 5
10 PM Wed 53 48 ENE 3 8 3832 2539 279 White 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst