Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.8223, -116.9588, 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 76 71 ENE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 74 69 SE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 74 69 SE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 72 67 SE 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 72 67 SE 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 71 66 SE 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 70 65 SE 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 70 65 ESE 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 73 68 S 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 78 74 S 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 83 81 SSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 89 86 WSW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 92 90 WSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 94 92 WSW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 96 93 W 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 95 92 W 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 95 91 W 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 93 88 W 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 89 84 WSW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 85 80 SSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 82 77 S 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 79 74 SSW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 77 72 SW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 76 71 SW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 74 69 SSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 72 67 SSE 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 72 67 ESE 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 71 66 ESE 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 69 64 ESE 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 69 64 ESE 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 68 63 SE 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 68 63 SSE 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 70 65 S 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 74 70 S 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 77 74 SSW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 84 83 SW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 88 88 SW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 90 90 SW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 92 91 SSW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 93 91 SSW 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 92 89 SSW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 90 85 SSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 86 81 SSW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 81 76 S 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 76 71 S 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 74 69 S 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 72 67 SSE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 70 65 SSE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 68 63 SSE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 67 62 SSE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 66 61 SSE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 64 59 SE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 64 59 E 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 64 59 SSE 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 63 58 SSE 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 64 59 S 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 66 61 S 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 70 66 SSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 76 73 WSW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 81 80 W 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 85 85 W 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 88 88 WSW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 89 88 SW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 90 88 SW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 90 87 SW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 88 83 SW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 84 79 WSW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 80 75 W 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 76 71 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 73 68 NW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 72 67 N 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 70 65 NE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 68 63 NE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 67 62 NE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 66 61 NE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 65 60 NE 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 64 59 NE 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 64 59 ENE 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 64 59 ENE 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 64 59 ENE 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 66 61 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 70 66 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 76 73 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 81 80 WSW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 85 85 WSW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 87 87 WSW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 89 88 WSW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 89 87 WSW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 88 85 WSW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 86 81 WSW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 83 78 WSW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 78 73 WSW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 74 69 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 72 67 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 70 65 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 69 64 NE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 68 63 NE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 67 62 NE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 66 61 NE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 65 60 NE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 64 59 NE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 64 59 ENE 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 64 59 ENE 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 64 59 ENE 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 66 61 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 71 66 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 76 72 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 80 79 WSW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 84 83 WSW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 86 86 WSW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 88 87 WSW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 88 86 WSW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 87 83 WSW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 85 80 WSW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 82 77 WSW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 78 73 WSW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 74 69 W 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 71 66 W 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 69 64 W 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 68 63 NE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 66 61 NE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 64 59 NE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 63 58 NE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 62 57 NE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 62 57 NE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 62 57 NE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 62 57 NE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 62 57 NE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 64 59 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 68 64 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 74 71 ENE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 78 77 WSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 82 81 WSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 84 84 WSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 86 85 W 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 86 84 W 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 85 81 W 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 83 78 W 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 80 75 W 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 76 71 W 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 73 68 W 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 70 65 W 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 68 63 W 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst