Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.8223, -116.9588, 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time UTC:

 260118/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sun 55 50 E 10 17 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 55 50 E 10 17 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 49 ENE 9 17 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 49 ENE 9 17 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 48 ENE 10 17 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 48 ENE 10 17 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 48 ENE 10 17 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 48 ENE 10 17 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 52 ENE 9 14 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 61 56 E 4 10 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 65 61 E 3 6 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 68 65 E 2 5 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 71 68 NNE 1 5 1345 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 74 71 N 2 5 2247 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 75 71 NNE 2 6 2247 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 74 70 NNE 3 8 1948 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 74 69 ENE 4 10 1648 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 70 65 ENE 5 11 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 66 61 E 5 11 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 62 57 E 5 11 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 60 55 E 5 11 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 59 54 ESE 4 10 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 53 ESE 4 9 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 55 50 ESE 4 9 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 49 ESE 4 10 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 49 ESE 4 10 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 48 ESE 4 10 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 47 ESE 4 9 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 46 ESE 3 9 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 46 E 3 9 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 46 E 3 9 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 46 E 3 8 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 51 ESE 3 8 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 56 S 2 6 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 65 62 SW 1 5 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 69 66 SW 2 5 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 72 70 SW 2 6 1948 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 73 70 SW 2 6 1948 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 75 72 SSW 2 6 2544 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 74 70 SE 3 8 1948 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 75 70 E 3 8 1948 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 67 62 E 4 10 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 64 59 E 6 12 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 62 57 ENE 8 14 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 60 55 ENE 9 16 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 60 55 ENE 10 17 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 58 53 ENE 10 17 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 59 54 ENE 10 18 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 53 ENE 10 18 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 49 ENE 11 18 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 51 E 11 18 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 50 E 11 18 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 47 E 10 18 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 53 E 10 18 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 51 E 10 18 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 46 E 9 17 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 53 E 8 13 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 65 61 E 5 11 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 64 61 ESE 3 9 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 69 66 E 3 8 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 71 68 E 4 9 1345 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 70 67 E 4 10 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 72 68 ENE 5 11 1345 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 73 69 NE 6 12 1648 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 71 66 NE 6 12 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 69 64 NE 6 12 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 66 61 ENE 6 12 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 60 55 ENE 6 12 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 61 56 ENE 6 12 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 60 55 ENE 8 13 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 55 50 ENE 8 14 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 52 47 ENE 8 14 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 47 ENE 8 13 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 47 ENE 6 12 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 47 ENE 6 12 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 46 ENE 5 11 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 46 E 5 11 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 45 E 5 11 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 44 E 5 11 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 45 ENE 5 11 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 49 ENE 5 11 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 55 ENE 5 11 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 63 59 E 3 8 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 66 63 E 3 8 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 68 65 E 3 8 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 70 67 W 4 10 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 71 67 W 4 10 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 71 66 W 4 10 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 71 66 W 5 11 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 68 63 W 5 11 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 63 58 W 5 11 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 59 54 ENE 4 10 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 57 52 ENE 4 10 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 55 50 ENE 4 10 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 49 ENE 4 10 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 48 ENE 4 10 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 47 ENE 4 10 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 47 ENE 4 10 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 46 ENE 4 10 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 46 ENE 4 10 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 45 ENE 4 10 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 45 ENE 4 10 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 44 ENE 4 10 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 45 ENE 3 8 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 53 48 ENE 3 8 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 52 ENE 3 8 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 61 57 WSW 4 10 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 63 59 WSW 4 10 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 65 61 WSW 4 10 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 66 62 WSW 8 14 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 67 63 WSW 8 14 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 67 62 WSW 8 14 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 67 62 WSW 9 16 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 65 60 WSW 9 16 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 61 56 WSW 9 16 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 57 52 WSW 5 11 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 55 50 WSW 5 11 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 49 WSW 5 11 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 48 SSW 3 8 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 47 SSW 3 8 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 46 SSW 3 8 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 45 N 2 6 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 44 N 2 6 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 44 N 2 6 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 44 N 2 6 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 43 N 2 6 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 42 N 2 6 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 42 SSW 3 8 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 44 SSW 3 8 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 47 SSW 3 8 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 56 52 SW 5 11 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 58 55 SW 5 11 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 60 57 SW 5 11 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 61 58 SW 9 16 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 62 58 SW 9 16 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 62 57 SW 9 16 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 63 58 SW 11 19 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 61 56 SW 11 19 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 58 53 SW 11 19 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 56 51 SW 6 12 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 54 49 SW 6 12 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 47 SW 6 12 1209 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 47 E 4 10 1209 2260 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst