Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.8223, -116.9588, 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

13 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 75 70 WNW 1 4 2239 2260 0 Blue 6
1 AM Sat 74 69 SW 1 1 2216 2260 0 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 72 67 SW 1 1 2155 2260 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sat 71 66 WSW 0 0 2115 2260 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sat 70 65 W 0 0 2075 2260 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sat 69 64 W 0 0 2028 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 68 63 W 0 0 1955 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 71 66 W 1 1 2115 2260 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sat 74 70 WSW 1 1 2239 2260 0 Blue 6
9 AM Sat 79 76 NNE 1 5 2373 2306 46 Blue 12
10 AM Sat 84 83 S 2 6 2705 2498 238 Blue 19
11 AM Sat 88 86 WSW 4 9 2993 2704 444 Blue 22
12 Noon Sat 92 91 WSW 5 11 3524 3190 930 Blue 27
1 PM Sat 95 94 WSW 5 11 3900 3516 1256 Blue 30
2 PM Sat 96 94 SW 8 13 3900 3516 1256 Blue 30
3 PM Sat 96 94 NW 4 9 3900 3516 1256 Blue 30
4 PM Sat 97 94 S 11 19 3900 3516 1256 Blue 30
5 PM Sat 95 91 S 1 1 3524 3190 930 Blue 27
6 PM Sat 92 87 SSW 3 9 3096 2783 523 Blue 23
7 PM Sat 89 84 W 5 11 2787 2574 314 Blue 20
8 PM Sat 86 81 NW 6 12 2576 2421 161 Blue 17
9 PM Sat 82 77 WNW 5 11 2396 2328 68 Blue 13
10 PM Sat 79 74 WSW 3 9 2329 2261 1 Blue 10
11 PM Sat 77 72 SSW 2 5 2284 2260 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sun 75 70 SW 1 5 2239 2260 0 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 74 69 WSW 1 4 2216 2260 0 Blue 5
2 AM Sun 72 67 W 1 1 2155 2260 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 71 66 W 1 1 2115 2260 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 70 65 W 1 1 2075 2260 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 69 64 W 1 1 2028 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 67 62 W 0 0 1882 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 69 64 W 0 0 2028 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 72 68 W 0 0 2193 2260 0 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 75 72 W 1 5 2284 2260 0 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 79 78 W 3 8 2422 2351 91 Blue 14
11 AM Sun 82 82 W 4 10 2648 2450 190 Blue 18
12 Noon Sun 90 90 W 5 11 3375 3092 832 Blue 26
1 PM Sun 93 94 W 6 13 3900 3516 1256 Blue 30
2 PM Sun 90 90 W 8 14 3375 3092 832 Blue 26
3 PM Sun 94 93 W 9 17 3784 3367 1107 Blue 29
4 PM Sun 94 92 WSW 10 18 3669 3271 1011 Blue 28
5 PM Sun 89 86 WSW 10 18 2993 2704 444 Blue 22
6 PM Sun 90 86 WSW 10 17 2993 2704 444 Blue 22
7 PM Sun 87 82 SW 8 14 2648 2450 190 Blue 18
8 PM Sun 81 76 SW 6 12 2373 2306 46 Blue 12
9 PM Sun 76 71 SW 5 11 2261 2260 0 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 75 70 WSW 4 9 2239 2260 0 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 73 68 WSW 3 8 2193 2260 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Mon 73 68 WSW 2 6 2193 2260 0 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 73 68 WSW 2 6 2193 2260 0 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 69 64 WSW 2 5 2028 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 73 68 WSW 1 5 2193 2260 0 Blue 4
4 AM Mon 72 67 W 1 5 2155 2260 0 Blue 3
5 AM Mon 67 62 WNW 2 5 1882 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 72 67 WNW 2 5 2155 2260 0 Blue 3
7 AM Mon 74 69 W 2 5 2216 2260 0 Blue 5
8 AM Mon 70 66 W 2 6 2115 2260 0 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 80 78 W 3 8 2422 2351 91 Blue 14
10 AM Mon 82 82 W 4 10 2648 2450 190 Blue 18
11 AM Mon 79 81 W 5 11 2576 2421 161 Blue 17
12 Noon Mon 89 92 W 6 13 3669 3271 1011 Blue 28
1 PM Mon 90 93 W 9 16 3784 3367 1107 Blue 29
2 PM Mon 86 89 W 10 18 3275 2989 729 Blue 25
3 PM Mon 92 93 W 11 19 3784 3367 1107 Blue 29
4 PM Mon 92 91 W 11 19 3524 3190 930 Blue 27
5 PM Mon 86 84 W 11 19 2787 2574 314 Blue 20
6 PM Mon 88 84 W 10 18 2787 2574 314 Blue 20
7 PM Mon 84 79 W 9 16 2451 2373 113 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 78 73 W 6 13 2306 2260 0 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 77 72 W 5 11 2284 2260 0 Blue 8
10 PM Mon 76 71 W 4 10 2261 2260 0 Blue 7
11 PM Mon 71 66 WSW 3 8 2115 2260 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 68 63 WSW 2 5 1955 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 67 62 W 2 5 1882 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 67 62 W 2 5 1882 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 66 61 W 1 5 1809 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 66 61 WSW 1 1 1809 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 65 60 NW 1 1 1736 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 65 60 NW 1 1 1736 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 67 62 NW 1 1 1882 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 69 65 W 2 5 2075 2260 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 73 71 W 2 5 2261 2260 0 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 78 78 W 2 5 2422 2351 91 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 82 84 W 5 10 2787 2574 314 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 86 89 W 5 10 3275 2989 729 Blue 25
1 PM Tue 90 93 W 5 10 3784 3367 1107 Blue 29
2 PM Tue 92 95 W 9 16 4015 3662 1402 Blue 31
3 PM Tue 92 93 W 9 16 3784 3367 1107 Blue 29
4 PM Tue 93 92 W 9 16 3669 3271 1011 Blue 28
5 PM Tue 91 89 W 10 18 3275 2989 729 Blue 25
6 PM Tue 88 84 W 10 18 2787 2574 314 Blue 20
7 PM Tue 85 80 W 10 18 2500 2395 135 Blue 16
8 PM Tue 81 76 W 5 10 2373 2306 46 Blue 12
9 PM Tue 78 73 W 5 10 2306 2260 0 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 75 70 W 5 10 2239 2260 0 Blue 6
11 PM Tue 72 67 W 2 5 2155 2260 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 70 65 W 2 5 2075 2260 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 69 64 W 2 5 2028 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 67 62 NW 1 1 1882 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 61 NW 1 1 1809 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 60 NW 1 1 1736 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 60 N 1 1 1736 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 66 61 N 1 1 1809 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 68 63 N 1 1 1955 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 71 67 W 2 5 2155 2260 0 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 75 73 W 2 5 2306 2260 0 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 79 79 W 2 5 2451 2373 113 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 84 85 W 5 10 2890 2647 387 Blue 21
12 Noon Wed 88 91 W 5 10 3524 3190 930 Blue 27
1 PM Wed 91 94 W 5 10 3900 3516 1256 Blue 30
2 PM Wed 93 95 W 9 16 4015 3662 1402 Blue 31
3 PM Wed 93 94 W 9 16 3900 3516 1256 Blue 30
4 PM Wed 94 93 W 9 16 3784 3367 1107 Blue 29
5 PM Wed 92 89 W 10 17 3275 2989 729 Blue 25
6 PM Wed 90 86 W 10 17 2993 2704 444 Blue 22
7 PM Wed 87 82 W 10 17 2648 2450 190 Blue 18
8 PM Wed 83 78 W 5 10 2422 2351 91 Blue 14
9 PM Wed 79 74 W 5 10 2329 2261 1 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 76 71 W 5 10 2261 2260 0 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 73 68 NW 2 5 2193 2260 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 71 66 NW 2 5 2115 2260 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 70 65 NW 2 5 2075 2260 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 69 64 N 2 5 2028 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 68 63 N 2 5 1955 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 67 62 N 2 5 1882 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 67 62 N 1 1 1882 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 68 63 N 1 1 1955 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 69 64 N 1 1 2028 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 72 68 W 2 5 2193 2260 0 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 76 74 W 2 5 2329 2261 1 Blue 10
10 AM Thu 81 80 W 2 5 2500 2395 135 Blue 16
11 AM Thu 85 86 W 4 10 2993 2704 444 Blue 22
12 Noon Thu 89 92 W 4 10 3669 3271 1011 Blue 28
1 PM Thu 92 95 W 4 10 4015 3662 1402 Blue 31
2 PM Thu 94 97 W 8 14 4246 3892 1632 Blue 33
3 PM Thu 94 95 W 8 14 4015 3662 1402 Blue 31
4 PM Thu 94 93 W 8 14 3784 3367 1107 Blue 29
5 PM Thu 94 91 W 10 17 3524 3190 930 Blue 27
6 PM Thu 91 87 W 10 17 3096 2783 523 Blue 23
7 PM Thu 87 82 W 10 17 2648 2450 190 Blue 18
8 PM Thu 84 79 W 4 9 2451 2373 113 Blue 15
9 PM Thu 80 75 W 4 9 2351 2283 23 Blue 11
10 PM Thu 77 72 W 4 9 2284 2260 0 Blue 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst