Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.8223, -116.9588, 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

30 NOV 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 34 29 E 2 5 646 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 34 29 E 2 6 646 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 33 28 ENE 3 6 646 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 33 28 ENE 2 5 646 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 32 27 ESE 1 3 646 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 32 27 ESE 2 5 646 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 35 30 ESE 1 3 646 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 36 31 S 0 1 646 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 37 32 S 2 5 646 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 41 37 S 1 2 646 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 50 46 WSW 2 2 2103 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 57 55 WSW 3 4 3391 3138 878 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 54 50 WSW 3 4 3011 2563 303 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 53 48 WSW 4 5 2881 2260 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 61 57 SW 5 5 4586 3268 1008 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 53 48 SW 6 8 2881 2260 0 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 53 48 SW 9 10 2881 2260 0 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 49 44 SW 7 8 1142 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 46 41 SSW 5 8 646 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 41 36 SSW 4 8 646 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 40 35 SSW 3 6 646 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 39 34 SSW 2 5 646 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 39 34 SSW 2 6 646 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 38 33 SSW 2 5 646 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 41 36 SW 2 5 646 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 41 36 SW 3 6 646 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 36 31 SSW 2 5 646 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 41 36 SSW 2 5 646 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 36 SSW 3 6 646 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 35 30 SSW 4 8 646 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 36 SSW 4 7 646 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 41 36 S 3 6 646 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 35 30 SSW 3 7 646 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 41 SSW 4 5 646 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 47 42 SW 4 4 646 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 43 38 SW 4 5 646 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 50 45 SSW 4 5 1627 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 50 45 SW 5 5 1627 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 44 39 SSW 5 5 646 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 51 46 SSW 5 6 2103 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 50 45 SSW 6 6 1627 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 41 36 SSW 6 8 646 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 45 40 SSW 5 8 646 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 45 40 SSW 4 7 646 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 37 32 SSW 3 6 646 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 44 39 SSW 3 6 646 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 43 38 S 3 6 646 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 37 32 S 4 7 646 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 39 SSW 3 6 646 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 45 40 SSW 3 4 646 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 37 32 S 3 5 646 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 43 38 S 2 4 646 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 39 SSE 3 5 646 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 37 32 S 2 4 646 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 43 38 SE 2 5 646 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 37 SE 2 4 646 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 38 33 E 2 3 646 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 51 46 WNW 1 1 2103 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 52 48 WNW 1 2 2881 2260 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 47 42 NNW 0 1 646 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 54 51 WSW 1 1 3076 2880 620 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 55 51 W 1 1 3076 2880 620 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 50 45 NW 1 1 1627 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 57 52 NNW 2 2 3140 2945 685 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 58 53 NW 3 3 3205 3009 749 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 49 44 NNW 4 4 1142 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 49 44 N 3 8 1142 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 46 41 NE 3 6 646 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 44 39 ENE 4 8 646 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 44 39 ENE 5 10 646 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 43 38 ENE 5 11 646 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 39 ENE 5 11 646 2260 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst