NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.

Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

Hourly wind gust has been added to the detail page.

RASP and Windgrams should not be impacted


See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model



Check out the WINDGRAMS


Sounding

Station:

 KNKX (alt)

Date/Time:

 31 MAY 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

 NOAA Digital Forecast
Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
Site
Name		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch
Torrey Pines Gliderport W 11 0 W 10 0 W 10 0 W 9 0 WSW 8 0 SW 10 0
Blossom Valley W 11 2516 WSW 11 3806 W 11 4446 W 10 5848 WSW 10 5848 WSW 11 4446
Horse Canyon WNW 14 1495 W 11 6209 WNW 12 7446 W 11 8870 W 12 8870 W 13 7241
Little Black W 13 0 W 10 0 W 11 2055 W 10 3305 W 9 3305 WSW 11 1491
Marshall SW 10 1777 SSW 10 2034 SSW 11 4751 SSW 11 7563 SSW 12 7563 SW 12 4751
Crestline SSW 12 484 S 13 778 SSW 12 3073 SSW 12 6297 SSW 13 6090 SSW 13 3073
Mentone WSW 11 2781 W 10 4739 W 11 7365 W 10 8803 WSW 11 8803 WSW 10 7573
Kagel S 9 3938 SSW 7 7758 S 8 9399
Lake Elsinore WSW 16 3096 WSW 14 3454 WSW 16 5622 WSW 11 8550 WSW 12 8550 SW 13 5467
Laguna W 13 5835 W 11 8480 W 10 10110
Big Black W 12 1749 WSW 10 2148 WSW 11 4263 WSW 10 7300 WSW 10 7300 WSW 11 4263
Otay Mesa W 12 2183 W 11 2872 WNW 11 4151 W 11 4443 W 10 4443 WSW 11 3733
Soboba SW 11 2173 SSW 13 3567 SW 13 3881 SW 13 7269 SW 12 7063 SW 12 4764
Henninger Flats SSW 9 2291 SSW 6 2387 SW 9 2700 SSW 9 4891 SSW 9 5207 SSW 9 2641
Palomar WSW 12 1774 WSW 10 2750 WSW 11 4344
Thomas Mt WNW 16 5048 W 11 7852 W 12 8677 W 12 9887 W 11 10088 W 13 8473
Winchester SSW 12 2812 SSW 16 4078 SSW 16 4911 SSW 13 7884 SSW 13 7884 SW 13 5444
Blackhawk WNW 16 7876 SW 16 9849 WNW 12 11179 NE 12 12839 SW 13 13387 ENE 17 11466
Ord SSW 19 6099 S 23 7349 SW 17 8176 SSW 19 9193 SSW 20 9193 SSW 20 7969
Warner Springs WSW 16 890 SW 13 3820 WSW 13 6490 SW 12 8114 SW 12 7913 WSW 13 6286

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst