NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.

Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

Hourly wind gust has been added to the detail page.

RASP and Windgrams should not be impacted


See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model



Check out the WINDGRAMS


Sounding

Station:

 KNKX (alt)

Date/Time:

 20 MAR 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

 NOAA Digital Forecast
error getting data for site: Laguna coordinate: 32.9339606586,-116.481859729 error getting data for site: Winchester coordinate: 33.7298,-117.063
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Site
Name		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch
Torrey Pines Gliderport S 13 0 S 31 0 WSW 24 0 W 12 0 W 8 0 NW 12 0
Blossom Valley SSW 13 0 S 24 0 SW 17 0 W 9 0 W 10 913 W 10 550
Horse Canyon SW 17 0 SSW 26 0 WSW 29 0 W 18 0 W 14 528 W 16 0
Little Black S 13 0 S 29 0 WSW 21 0 W 10 0 W 9 0 W 10 0
Marshall S 12 0 SSE 29 0 SW 26 0 SSW 11 0 SW 8 0 WSW 10 0
Crestline S 18 0 S 36 0 SW 26 0 SSW 12 0 W 10 0 NNW 11 0
Mentone SE 10 0 SSE 25 0 SW 19 0 SW 6 0 N 6 0 NW 9 0
Kagel SSW 11 0 S 44 0 SSW 29 0 NW 12 0 NNW 14 0 N 18 0
Lake Elsinore SW 14 48 S 29 0 SW 24 0 WSW 11 0 WSW 10 111 S 9 48
Big Black SSW 16 138 SSW 27 0 WSW 26 0 W 12 0 W 11 0 WSW 11 0
Otay Mesa S 12 0 SSE 27 0 WSW 21 0 W 10 0 W 9 879 WNW 11 150
Soboba SSW 13 0 S 26 0 SW 25 0 SW 9 0 WSW 9 0 W 8 0
Henninger Flats SE 9 0 S 32 0 SW 25 0 WSW 9 0 WNW 10 0 NNW 12 0
Palomar SSE 11 0 S 27 0 SW 21 0 WSW 9 0 W 9 0 W 9 0
Thomas Mt WSW 24 0 SSW 33 0 WSW 31 0 W 19 0 W 16 1208 WNW 14 1095
Blackhawk SW 33 766 SSW 58 0 SW 49 0 SW 26 0 WSW 18 463 W 18 0
Ord S 29 57 S 55 0 SSW 37 0 SSW 23 0 W 13 0 WNW 14 0
Warner Springs WSW 17 0 SSW 27 0 WSW 23 0 W 12 0 W 13 0 W 13 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst