Detailed Predictions for: Thomas Mt
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.5999, -116.65385, 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 4550
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 ESE 3 8 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 49 SE 2 6 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 SE 3 7 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 48 S 1 3 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 SE 1 2 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 48 S 0 1 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 47 SW 0 1 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 NNW 8 12 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 51 ESE 1 3 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 55 55 SE 2 5 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 58 58 SSW 1 2 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 60 60 SW 2 2 6341 5900 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 62 62 W 4 5 6828 5900 0 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 63 64 W 4 5 7920 6457 557 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 62 63 W 6 7 7382 6339 439 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 61 61 W 5 6 6459 5900 0 Blue 2
4 PM Mon 58 58 W 5 6 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 54 54 W 5 9 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 52 52 W 3 7 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 50 50 W 2 6 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 48 48 W 2 5 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 47 47 WSW 2 5 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 47 47 W 2 5 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 46 46 W 4 8 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 W 3 6 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 44 44 WSW 1 3 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 43 43 W 3 7 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 42 WSW 2 4 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 42 42 SW 2 4 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 41 41 W 3 7 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 41 41 WSW 2 5 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 SSE 2 4 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 45 45 SSE 2 6 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 51 S 1 3 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 53 55 WSW 2 3 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 55 57 WSW 5 5 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 56 59 W 6 7 5672 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 57 59 W 6 7 5672 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 57 58 W 6 7 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 56 56 W 7 8 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 54 54 W 7 8 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 49 49 WNW 5 8 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 46 46 WNW 4 8 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 43 43 NNW 2 4 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 42 42 NE 1 3 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 42 42 NE 1 3 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 41 41 NNE 2 4 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 41 41 NE 2 4 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 40 40 NE 2 5 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 40 40 ENE 3 7 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 40 40 ENE 3 7 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 40 40 ENE 4 8 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 40 40 ENE 4 9 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 ENE 4 9 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 41 41 ENE 5 12 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 41 41 ENE 7 15 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 44 ENE 8 17 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 49 50 ENE 7 13 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 52 54 ENE 7 8 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 54 56 ENE 6 7 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 55 58 NE 5 5 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 57 59 NE 4 4 5672 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 57 58 NNE 3 3 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 57 57 N 3 3 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 55 55 NNE 3 4 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 51 51 ENE 3 5 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 48 48 E 4 10 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 46 46 E 6 12 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 45 45 E 6 14 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 44 44 E 6 14 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 44 44 E 6 13 4974 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 43 43 E 6 13 4974 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst