Detailed Predictions for: Torrey Pines Gliderport
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.8903198191, -117.251856742, 300
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 52 32 E 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 32 SE 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 32 SSE 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 32 SE 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 32 SSE 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 32 SE 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 32 SSE 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 32 SSE 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 36 SSE 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 61 41 SSE 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 64 45 S 3 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 65 47 S 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 66 48 SSW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 65 46 SW 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 65 46 WSW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 65 45 WSW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 63 43 SSW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 61 41 SSW 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 59 39 S 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 58 38 S 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 58 38 S 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 57 37 S 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 36 S 6 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 36 S 8 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 35 SSE 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 35 SSE 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 34 SSE 8 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 34 S 8 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 33 S 8 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 32 S 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 32 SSE 9 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 33 SSE 10 18 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 35 SSE 11 19 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 38 S 11 19 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 42 S 11 20 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 62 44 S 12 20 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 62 44 S 12 20 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 63 45 S 12 20 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 62 43 S 11 19 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 62 42 S 11 18 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 61 41 S 10 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 60 40 S 9 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 59 39 S 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 58 38 SSE 9 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 57 37 SSE 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 36 SSE 8 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 36 SSE 6 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 35 SSE 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 35 SSE 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 35 SSE 5 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 34 SSE 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 34 SSE 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 31 SSE 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 30 SSE 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 30 S 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 31 S 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 34 SSW 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 36 WSW 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 59 41 W 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 61 43 W 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 62 44 WNW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 62 44 NW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 62 43 NW 6 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 61 41 NW 8 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 61 41 NW 8 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 60 40 NW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 58 38 NNW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 57 37 NNW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 56 36 N 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 36 N 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 35 NNE 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 54 34 N 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 33 NW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 33 WNW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 32 NW 3 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 31 N 3 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 31 NNE 3 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 31 NNE 3 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 31 NNE 3 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 32 ENE 5 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 36 ENE 5 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 41 ENE 5 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 63 45 ENE 5 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 65 47 ENE 5 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 66 48 ENE 5 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 66 48 NW 6 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 66 47 NW 6 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 66 46 NW 6 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 64 44 NW 8 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 63 43 NW 8 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 61 41 NW 8 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 60 40 N 5 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 59 39 N 5 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 58 38 N 5 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 37 NE 5 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 36 NE 5 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 36 NE 5 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 35 ENE 6 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 34 ENE 6 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 34 ENE 6 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 34 ENE 6 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 33 ENE 6 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 33 ENE 6 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 34 ENE 8 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 38 ENE 8 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 42 ENE 8 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 65 47 ENE 6 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 67 49 ENE 6 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 67 49 ENE 6 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 68 50 NNW 9 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 68 49 NNW 9 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 67 47 NNW 9 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 66 46 NNW 8 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 65 45 NNW 8 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 63 43 NNW 8 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 62 42 NE 6 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 61 41 NE 6 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 60 40 NE 6 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 60 40 ENE 8 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 59 39 ENE 8 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 38 ENE 8 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 38 ENE 6 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 37 ENE 6 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 37 ENE 6 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 36 ENE 8 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 36 ENE 8 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 36 ENE 8 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 36 ENE 8 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 59 39 ENE 8 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 63 44 ENE 8 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 47 ENE 6 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 67 49 ENE 6 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 68 50 ENE 6 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 68 50 N 8 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 68 49 N 8 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 67 47 N 8 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 66 46 NNW 8 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 65 45 NNW 8 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 63 43 NNW 8 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 62 42 NNE 8 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 61 41 NNE 8 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 60 40 NNE 8 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 59 39 ENE 6 10 0 300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst