Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.2845028, -116.6696569, 5130
LZ Altitude (f): 3130
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 71 71 N 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 70 70 N 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 68 68 N 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 66 66 N 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 65 65 N 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 63 63 N 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 63 63 N 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 62 62 N 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 65 65 N 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 72 73 SW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 80 83 SW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 92 94 SSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 94 97 SW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 95 98 SW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 95 97 WSW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 94 96 WSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 93 94 WSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 91 91 WSW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 86 86 W 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 81 81 NW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 78 78 NNW 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 75 75 NNW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 72 72 NNW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 70 70 N 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 69 69 NNW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 66 66 NNW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 64 64 NW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 63 63 NW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 62 62 NNW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 61 61 NNW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 60 60 NW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 60 60 WNW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 62 62 WNW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 68 69 W 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 77 79 SW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 87 91 SW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 91 96 SW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 91 96 SW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 92 96 SW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 91 94 SW 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 90 92 SW 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 88 88 SW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 84 84 SW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 78 78 SSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 74 74 SSW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 70 70 SSW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 68 68 SSW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 66 66 SSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 SW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 61 61 SW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 60 60 SW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 58 58 WSW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 56 56 WNW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 56 56 SSW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 55 55 SSW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 56 56 S 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 59 59 S 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 67 68 S 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 78 80 SSW 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 86 90 SSW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 90 95 SSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 91 96 SW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 90 94 SW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 90 93 SW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 89 91 SW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 87 87 SW 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 83 83 WSW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 77 77 W 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 72 72 WNW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 69 69 WNW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 67 67 NW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 65 65 NW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 NW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 60 60 NW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 59 59 NW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 57 57 NNW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 56 56 N 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 56 56 N 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 55 55 N 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 56 56 N 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 59 59 NNE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 67 68 NNE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 77 79 NNE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 86 90 SSW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 89 94 SSW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 90 95 SSW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 89 93 SW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 89 92 SW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 88 90 SW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 85 85 WSW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 81 81 WSW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 76 76 WSW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 72 72 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 69 69 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 66 66 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 64 64 NW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 NW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 61 61 NW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 59 59 NW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 57 57 NW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 56 56 NW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 56 56 NW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 55 55 NW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 55 55 NW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 58 58 WNW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 66 67 WNW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 76 78 WNW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 85 89 SW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 88 92 SW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 89 94 SW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 88 92 WSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 88 91 WSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 87 88 WSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 84 84 W 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 80 80 W 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 76 76 W 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 72 72 W 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 69 69 W 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 66 66 W 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 64 64 WNW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 62 62 WNW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 60 60 WNW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 58 58 NW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 56 56 NW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 56 56 NW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 55 55 NW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 54 54 NW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 55 55 NW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 58 58 WNW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 66 67 WNW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 75 78 WNW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 83 87 WSW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 86 91 WSW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 87 92 WSW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 86 90 W 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 86 89 W 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 85 87 W 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 82 82 W 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 79 79 W 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 74 74 W 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 70 70 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 67 67 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 65 65 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst