Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.2845028, -116.6696569, 5130
LZ Altitude (f): 3130
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 ENE 2 6 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 39 39 NE 2 6 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 39 39 ENE 2 5 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 39 ENE 2 5 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 ENE 1 5 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 39 39 ENE 1 5 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 39 39 ENE 1 5 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 39 39 E 1 5 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 40 40 NE 2 6 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 48 E 2 6 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 57 SSE 6 12 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 62 64 SSE 6 13 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 65 67 S 4 9 3012 5130 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 65 66 WSW 9 16 2916 5130 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 66 67 WSW 8 14 3012 5130 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 65 65 WSW 8 14 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 62 62 WSW 6 12 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 58 58 SSW 4 10 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 55 55 SE 3 8 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 53 53 ESE 2 6 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 51 51 ESE 2 5 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 49 49 E 2 5 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 48 48 E 2 6 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 47 47 ESE 2 5 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 ESE 1 5 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 45 ESE 1 5 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 44 44 ESE 1 5 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 43 43 ESE 1 4 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 42 42 ESE 1 1 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 39 39 ESE 1 1 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 38 38 E 1 5 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 38 38 E 1 5 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 43 43 SE 2 5 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 52 S 2 6 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 59 SSW 3 8 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 63 65 SSW 5 11 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 65 67 SW 8 14 3012 5130 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 64 66 SW 10 17 2916 5130 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 65 66 SW 10 17 2916 5130 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 63 63 SW 9 16 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 61 61 SW 8 13 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 57 57 W 5 11 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 53 53 NNW 2 6 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 50 50 NNE 1 1 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 47 47 NNE 1 1 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 45 45 ENE 1 5 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 44 44 E 2 6 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 42 42 E 3 8 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 41 41 E 3 8 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 41 41 E 3 8 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 40 40 ENE 3 8 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 40 40 ENE 3 8 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 38 38 NE 3 8 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 36 36 NE 4 10 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 36 36 NE 5 11 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 36 36 NE 6 12 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 42 42 NE 5 12 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 49 50 ENE 5 11 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 58 ENE 4 10 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 60 62 ENE 5 12 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 62 65 NE 8 14 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 63 65 NNE 9 16 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 63 64 NNE 10 17 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 62 62 NNE 10 17 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 60 60 NE 9 16 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 57 57 NE 8 13 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 53 53 NE 5 11 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 49 49 NE 4 10 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 47 47 NE 5 11 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 45 45 NE 6 13 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 44 44 NE 9 16 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 42 42 NE 9 14 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 41 41 NE 8 14 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 40 40 NNE 6 13 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 39 NE 6 13 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 39 39 NE 8 13 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 38 NE 8 13 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 38 NE 8 13 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 38 38 NE 8 13 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 38 38 ENE 8 11 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 ENE 8 11 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 51 ENE 8 11 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 59 E 10 16 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 62 E 10 16 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 62 64 E 10 16 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 63 65 E 12 18 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 63 64 E 12 18 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 62 62 E 12 18 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 60 60 E 10 16 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 57 57 E 10 16 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 53 53 E 10 16 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 50 50 ENE 8 11 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 48 48 ENE 8 11 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 47 ENE 8 11 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 46 46 ENE 8 11 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 45 45 ENE 8 11 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 ENE 8 11 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 ENE 6 11 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 42 ENE 6 11 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 42 ENE 6 11 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 41 41 ENE 8 12 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 40 40 ENE 8 12 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 40 40 ENE 8 12 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 40 40 ENE 9 13 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 44 ENE 9 13 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 51 52 ENE 9 13 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 57 58 E 12 19 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 60 62 E 12 19 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 62 64 E 12 19 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 63 65 E 16 23 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 62 63 E 16 23 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 61 61 E 16 23 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 59 59 E 13 20 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 56 56 E 13 20 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 54 54 E 13 20 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 51 51 ENE 10 13 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 50 ENE 10 13 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 49 ENE 10 13 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 48 ENE 9 13 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 47 47 ENE 9 13 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 ENE 9 13 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 45 45 ENE 9 13 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 45 45 ENE 9 13 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 ENE 9 13 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 44 ENE 9 13 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 ENE 9 13 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 ENE 9 13 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 ENE 9 14 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 46 ENE 9 14 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 53 ENE 9 14 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 57 58 E 12 18 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 60 62 E 12 18 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 62 64 E 12 18 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 62 64 E 14 20 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 63 64 E 14 20 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 62 62 E 14 20 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 60 60 E 11 18 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 57 57 E 11 18 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 54 54 E 11 18 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 51 51 E 8 12 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 50 50 E 8 12 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 48 E 8 12 2877 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 48 48 ENE 8 11 2877 5130 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst