Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.2845028, -116.6696569, 5130
LZ Altitude (f): 3130
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

14 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 W 10 18 4238 5130 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 45 45 W 9 13 4159 5130 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 43 43 W 9 13 3239 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 41 41 W 6 10 2979 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 40 40 WNW 4 8 2979 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 38 38 WNW 3 5 2979 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 37 37 WNW 3 4 2979 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 36 36 W 3 5 2979 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 37 37 W 5 9 2979 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 40 40 W 8 12 2979 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 45 46 W 11 18 4238 5130 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 50 52 WSW 13 23 6035 5233 103 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 52 54 WSW 16 25 6483 5789 659 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 54 56 W 17 28 6928 6235 1105 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 53 55 W 18 29 6706 6013 883 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 54 55 W 19 32 6706 6013 883 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 53 54 W 20 33 6483 5789 659 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 51 51 W 20 33 5810 5130 0 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 49 49 W 20 32 5267 5130 0 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 48 48 W 18 29 4590 5130 0 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 46 46 W 17 26 4238 5130 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 44 44 W 16 25 3784 5130 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 43 43 W 14 25 3239 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 42 42 W 13 21 3040 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 W 11 18 3040 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 41 W 12 19 2979 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 W 10 17 2979 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 39 W 10 17 2979 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 W 10 17 2979 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 38 W 10 16 2979 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 38 38 W 10 17 2979 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 37 37 W 10 17 2979 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 38 38 W 11 17 2979 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 40 41 W 11 17 2979 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 47 49 W 11 18 5267 5130 0 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 50 54 W 11 18 6483 5789 659 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 54 59 W 11 18 7774 6898 1768 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 58 63 W 12 19 8295 7948 2818 Blue 20
2 PM Mon 60 65 W 12 20 8915 8178 3048 Blue 22
3 PM Mon 62 65 W 12 20 8915 8178 3048 Blue 22
4 PM Mon 61 63 W 12 20 8295 7948 2818 Blue 20
5 PM Mon 62 63 W 11 18 8295 7948 2818 Blue 20
6 PM Mon 58 58 W 9 14 7557 6678 1548 Blue 15
7 PM Mon 54 54 WNW 6 11 6483 5789 659 Blue 11
8 PM Mon 53 53 WNW 4 8 6260 5565 435 Blue 10
9 PM Mon 49 49 WNW 3 5 5267 5130 0 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 50 50 WNW 3 5 5585 5130 0 Blue 7
11 PM Mon 46 46 WNW 3 5 4238 5130 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 NW 3 4 4238 5130 0 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 45 45 NW 3 4 4159 5130 0 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 43 43 NNW 3 4 3239 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 NNW 2 4 4238 5130 0 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 44 44 NNW 2 3 3784 5130 0 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 40 40 NNW 2 2 2979 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 N 2 2 3784 5130 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 48 48 NNE 2 3 4590 5130 0 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 46 47 NE 2 4 4345 5130 0 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 56 59 ENE 3 5 7774 6898 1768 Blue 16
10 AM Tue 61 66 E 5 9 9300 8277 3147 Blue 23
11 AM Tue 61 67 E 6 11 9680 8451 3321 Blue 24
12 Noon Tue 71 78 ESE 8 13 12208 11546 6416 Blue 35
1 PM Tue 69 76 S 9 16 11713 11423 6293 Blue 33
2 PM Tue 67 74 SSW 10 17 11503 11114 5984 Blue 31
3 PM Tue 73 78 SW 11 18 12208 11546 6416 Blue 35
4 PM Tue 74 77 WSW 12 20 11961 11484 6354 Blue 34
5 PM Tue 66 67 W 12 19 9680 8451 3321 Blue 24
6 PM Tue 69 69 W 11 18 10469 9219 4089 White 26
7 PM Tue 66 66 W 9 14 9300 8277 3147 Blue 23
8 PM Tue 58 58 WNW 6 11 7557 6678 1548 Blue 15
9 PM Tue 58 58 WNW 5 9 7557 6678 1548 Blue 15
10 PM Tue 60 60 WNW 4 8 7992 7141 2011 Blue 17
11 PM Tue 52 52 WNW 4 6 6035 5233 103 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 N 4 8 4590 5130 0 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 48 48 N 4 8 4590 5130 0 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 49 49 NW 4 6 5267 5130 0 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 49 49 N 5 9 5267 5130 0 Blue 6
4 AM Wed 48 48 N 5 9 4590 5130 0 Blue 5
5 AM Wed 47 47 NW 3 5 4345 5130 0 Blue 4
6 AM Wed 47 47 NW 3 5 4345 5130 0 Blue 4
7 AM Wed 50 50 NW 3 5 5585 5130 0 Blue 7
8 AM Wed 54 55 NW 6 10 6706 6013 883 Blue 12
9 AM Wed 60 63 NW 6 10 8295 7948 2818 Blue 20
10 AM Wed 67 71 NW 6 10 10885 9966 4836 White 28
11 AM Wed 72 78 WSW 10 16 12208 11546 6416 Blue 35
12 Noon Wed 76 83 WSW 10 16 12897 12447 7317 Blue 40
1 PM Wed 77 84 WSW 10 16 13032 12582 7452 Blue 41
2 PM Wed 78 84 W 13 21 13032 12582 7452 Blue 41
3 PM Wed 77 82 W 13 21 12762 12312 7182 Blue 39
4 PM Wed 78 81 W 13 21 12627 12130 7000 Blue 38
5 PM Wed 76 77 W 12 20 11961 11484 6354 Blue 34
6 PM Wed 72 72 W 12 20 11091 10453 5323 White 29
7 PM Wed 68 68 W 12 20 10063 8838 3708 Blue 25
8 PM Wed 64 64 W 9 14 8524 8080 2950 Blue 21
9 PM Wed 60 60 W 9 14 7992 7141 2011 Blue 17
10 PM Wed 58 58 W 9 14 7557 6678 1548 Blue 15
11 PM Wed 56 56 W 8 12 6928 6235 1105 Blue 13
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 W 8 12 6483 5789 659 Blue 11
1 AM Thu 52 52 W 8 12 6035 5233 103 Blue 9
2 AM Thu 51 51 WNW 6 11 5810 5130 0 Blue 8
3 AM Thu 50 50 WNW 6 11 5585 5130 0 Blue 7
4 AM Thu 48 48 WNW 6 11 4590 5130 0 Blue 5
5 AM Thu 48 48 WNW 6 11 4590 5130 0 Blue 5
6 AM Thu 48 48 WNW 6 11 4590 5130 0 Blue 5
7 AM Thu 50 50 WNW 6 11 5585 5130 0 Blue 7
8 AM Thu 54 54 WNW 6 11 6483 5789 659 Blue 11
9 AM Thu 60 61 WNW 6 11 8097 7501 2371 Blue 18
10 AM Thu 66 69 WNW 6 11 10469 9219 4089 White 26
11 AM Thu 71 75 SW 10 16 11564 11285 6155 Blue 32
12 Noon Thu 74 79 SW 10 16 12356 11639 6509 Blue 36
1 PM Thu 76 81 SW 10 16 12627 12130 7000 Blue 38
2 PM Thu 75 79 WSW 13 21 12356 11639 6509 Blue 36
3 PM Thu 75 78 WSW 13 21 12208 11546 6416 Blue 35
4 PM Thu 76 78 WSW 13 21 12208 11546 6416 Blue 35
5 PM Thu 74 74 WSW 12 20 11503 11114 5984 Blue 31
6 PM Thu 70 70 WSW 12 20 10677 9595 4465 White 27
7 PM Thu 67 67 WSW 12 20 9680 8451 3321 Blue 24
8 PM Thu 63 63 W 9 14 8295 7948 2818 Blue 20
9 PM Thu 60 60 W 9 14 7992 7141 2011 Blue 17
10 PM Thu 58 58 W 9 14 7557 6678 1548 Blue 15
11 PM Thu 56 56 W 8 12 6928 6235 1105 Blue 13
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 W 8 12 6483 5789 659 Blue 11
1 AM Fri 52 52 W 8 12 6035 5233 103 Blue 9
2 AM Fri 50 50 W 6 11 5585 5130 0 Blue 7
3 AM Fri 49 49 W 6 11 5267 5130 0 Blue 6
4 AM Fri 48 48 W 6 11 4590 5130 0 Blue 5
5 AM Fri 47 47 W 8 12 4345 5130 0 Blue 4
6 AM Fri 47 47 W 8 12 4345 5130 0 Blue 4
7 AM Fri 48 48 W 8 12 4590 5130 0 Blue 5
8 AM Fri 51 51 W 8 12 5810 5130 0 Blue 8
9 AM Fri 56 58 W 8 12 7557 6678 1548 Blue 15
10 AM Fri 62 65 W 8 12 8915 8178 3048 Blue 22
11 AM Fri 67 73 WSW 11 18 11299 10943 5813 White 30
12 Noon Fri 70 77 WSW 11 18 11961 11484 6354 Blue 34
1 PM Fri 72 79 WSW 11 18 12356 11639 6509 Blue 36
2 PM Fri 71 77 WSW 14 24 11961 11484 6354 Blue 34
3 PM Fri 72 77 WSW 14 24 11961 11484 6354 Blue 34
4 PM Fri 71 74 WSW 14 24 11503 11114 5984 Blue 31
5 PM Fri 69 70 W 14 24 10677 9595 4465 White 27
6 PM Fri 66 66 W 14 24 9300 8277 3147 Blue 23
7 PM Fri 62 62 W 14 24 8196 7759 2629 Blue 19
8 PM Fri 59 59 W 11 18 7774 6898 1768 Blue 16
9 PM Fri 56 56 W 11 18 6928 6235 1105 Blue 13
10 PM Fri 54 54 W 11 18 6483 5789 659 Blue 11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst