Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.2845028, -116.6696569, 5130
LZ Altitude (f): 3130
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

30 NOV 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 NW 0 1 3036 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 NW 1 3 2970 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 44 44 NW 2 4 2841 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 WNW 2 4 2841 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 WNW 3 6 2841 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 44 WNW 3 6 2841 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 W 2 5 2970 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 W 2 5 2905 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 46 WNW 3 6 2970 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 51 52 NW 2 2 3503 5130 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 55 57 ENE 1 1 4976 5130 0 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 54 55 ESE 2 3 4817 5130 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 61 64 ESE 3 4 6556 5749 619 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 63 65 SE 3 4 6814 6009 879 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 60 61 ESE 3 4 5774 5130 0 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 67 67 SE 3 4 7326 6525 1395 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 57 57 SE 3 4 4976 5130 0 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 50 50 SE 3 4 3232 5130 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 41 41 S 1 2 2841 5130 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 42 42 WSW 3 6 2841 5130 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 36 36 W 5 11 2841 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 34 34 W 6 13 2841 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 32 32 W 7 15 2841 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 32 32 W 7 16 2841 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 W 8 18 2841 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 43 43 W 9 20 2841 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 28 28 W 9 20 2841 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 42 W 9 20 2841 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 W 9 20 2841 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 28 28 W 10 21 2841 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 43 43 W 10 20 2841 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 W 10 15 2970 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 W 10 14 2841 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 51 W 9 11 3297 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 54 54 W 8 10 4666 5130 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 56 59 W 7 8 5249 5130 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 60 63 W 7 8 6297 5488 358 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 60 62 WSW 8 9 6036 5238 108 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 65 66 W 10 11 7071 6268 1138 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 52 52 W 11 15 3503 5130 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 45 45 WSW 11 24 2905 5130 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 42 42 W 11 24 2841 5130 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 42 42 W 11 23 2841 5130 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 41 41 W 9 20 2841 5130 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 35 35 W 9 20 2841 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 39 39 W 10 21 2841 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 38 38 W 10 21 2841 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 34 34 W 9 19 2841 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 37 37 W 9 20 2841 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 37 37 W 11 23 2841 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 34 34 W 10 21 2841 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 40 40 W 9 20 2841 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 43 W 9 19 2841 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 36 36 W 10 21 2841 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 42 W 9 20 2841 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 W 9 12 3166 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 47 47 W 8 11 3036 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 55 W 7 8 4817 5130 0 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 57 59 W 4 5 5249 5130 0 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 59 61 W 2 2 5774 5130 0 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 61 62 W 0 0 6036 5238 108 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 62 62 ENE 1 1 6036 5238 108 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 62 62 ENE 2 3 6036 5238 108 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 63 63 E 4 5 6297 5488 358 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 62 62 E 5 6 6036 5238 108 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 60 60 E 5 6 5511 5130 0 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 57 57 ESE 4 5 4976 5130 0 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 55 55 SE 3 4 4817 5130 0 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 54 54 SE 2 3 4666 5130 0 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 52 52 SE 1 2 3503 5130 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 51 51 ENE 0 0 3297 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 51 NNW 0 1 3297 5130 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst