Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.2845028, -116.6696569, 5130
LZ Altitude (f): 3130
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time UTC:

 260912/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 70 70 E 2 5 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 69 69 ENE 1 5 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 67 67 NE 1 1 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 66 66 N 1 5 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 63 63 E 1 5 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 62 62 ENE 1 5 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 62 62 ENE 2 5 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 60 E 1 5 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 64 S 0 0 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 71 73 SW 2 6 2632 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 79 82 SW 3 8 3888 5130 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 88 93 SW 5 11 9187 7249 2119 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 90 97 WSW 10 17 11787 9535 4405 Blue 19
1 PM Sat 90 97 WSW 11 19 11787 9535 4405 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 90 96 WSW 13 21 11077 9104 3974 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 90 95 WSW 13 23 10296 8342 3212 Blue 17
4 PM Sat 89 92 WSW 13 23 8417 6646 1516 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 87 88 WSW 12 21 6108 5130 0 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 83 83 WSW 9 17 4048 5130 0 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 80 80 SW 5 11 3568 5130 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 76 76 S 2 6 2918 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 74 74 S 1 1 2727 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 72 72 SE 1 1 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 70 70 E 1 1 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 69 69 E 1 4 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 67 67 E 1 5 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 65 65 ENE 1 5 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 64 64 E 1 4 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 61 E 1 1 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 60 E 1 1 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 59 59 ENE 0 0 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 58 NNE 0 0 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 62 N 1 1 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 68 70 NW 2 6 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 76 80 W 5 10 3568 5130 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 84 89 SW 8 14 6717 5130 0 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 87 93 SW 10 17 9187 7249 2119 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 87 94 SW 11 19 9668 7830 2700 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 87 93 SW 12 21 9187 7249 2119 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 87 92 WSW 13 23 8417 6646 1516 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 86 89 WSW 13 23 6717 5130 0 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 84 85 WSW 12 20 4582 5130 0 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 82 82 WSW 9 16 3888 5130 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 77 77 WSW 5 11 3013 5130 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 73 73 WSW 2 6 2632 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 70 70 W 1 4 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 68 68 W 1 5 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 67 67 W 2 5 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 W 1 5 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 62 NW 1 5 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 60 NW 1 4 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 58 WNW 1 1 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 57 W 1 1 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 56 W 1 1 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 56 W 1 1 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 57 57 W 1 5 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 60 60 W 2 6 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 67 69 W 3 8 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 76 80 WSW 5 10 3568 5130 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 83 88 WSW 6 13 6108 5130 0 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 86 93 WSW 9 17 9187 7249 2119 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 86 93 WSW 11 20 9187 7249 2119 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 85 91 WSW 13 21 7918 6052 922 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 85 90 WSW 13 23 7329 5482 352 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 84 87 WSW 13 23 5528 5130 0 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 82 83 WSW 12 19 4048 5130 0 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 79 79 WSW 9 17 3407 5130 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 74 74 W 5 11 2727 5130 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 70 70 W 3 4 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 68 68 W 2 5 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 66 66 W 2 5 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 64 64 W 2 3 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 62 62 W 2 6 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 59 59 W 2 6 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 57 W 1 1 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 55 W 1 1 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 W 1 1 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 53 53 W 1 1 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 53 W 1 1 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 W 1 1 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 57 WSW 2 3 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 65 67 WSW 2 3 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 73 77 WSW 2 3 3013 5130 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 81 86 SW 6 12 5105 5130 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 84 91 SW 6 12 7918 6052 922 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 84 91 SW 6 12 7918 6052 922 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 83 89 WSW 13 21 6717 5130 0 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 83 88 WSW 13 21 6108 5130 0 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 82 85 WSW 13 21 4582 5130 0 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 80 81 WSW 12 20 3728 5130 0 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 76 76 WSW 12 20 2918 5130 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 72 72 WSW 12 20 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 68 68 W 2 3 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 66 66 W 2 3 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 64 64 W 2 3 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 62 62 W 2 3 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 W 2 3 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 58 W 2 3 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 W 1 1 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 W 1 1 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 W 1 1 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 53 N 0 1 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 N 0 1 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 N 0 1 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 59 W 1 2 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 67 69 W 1 2 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 76 79 W 1 2 3407 5130 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 83 88 SW 5 12 6108 5130 0 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 86 93 SW 5 12 9187 7249 2119 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 87 94 SW 5 12 9668 7830 2700 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 86 92 SW 12 21 8417 6646 1516 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 86 91 SW 12 21 7918 6052 922 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 84 87 SW 12 21 5528 5130 0 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 82 83 WSW 11 18 4048 5130 0 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 78 78 WSW 11 18 3108 5130 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 74 74 WSW 11 18 2727 5130 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 70 70 N 0 1 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 68 68 N 0 1 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 66 66 N 0 1 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 65 65 N 0 1 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 N 0 1 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 62 N 0 1 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 N 0 0 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 N 0 0 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 N 0 0 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 N 0 0 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 N 0 0 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 N 0 0 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 63 WNW 0 1 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 71 73 WNW 0 1 2632 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 80 83 WNW 0 1 4048 5130 0 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 87 92 SSW 5 11 8417 6646 1516 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 90 97 SSW 5 11 11787 9535 4405 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 90 97 SSW 5 11 11787 9535 4405 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 89 95 SW 11 20 10296 8342 3212 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 89 94 SW 11 20 9668 7830 2700 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 88 91 SW 11 20 7918 6052 922 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 86 87 WSW 11 18 5528 5130 0 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 83 83 WSW 11 18 4048 5130 0 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 79 79 WSW 11 18 3407 5130 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 75 75 N 0 1 2822 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 72 72 N 0 1 2546 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 71 71 N 0 1 2546 5130 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst