Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.2845028, -116.6696569, 5130
LZ Altitude (f): 3130
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
6 AM Mon 46 46 E 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 45 45 E 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 50 50 E 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 56 57 W 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 67 69 SW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 72 75 SSW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 74 77 SSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 75 78 SW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 75 77 WSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 75 76 WSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 73 73 WSW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 68 68 SW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 62 62 SSE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 59 59 ESE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 56 56 ESE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 54 54 ESE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 52 52 E 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 50 50 SE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 ESE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 47 47 SE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 46 46 SE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 45 45 SE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 45 45 ESE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 44 44 ESE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 44 44 ESE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 43 43 ESE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 47 47 ESE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 55 55 SSE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 60 61 SSW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 64 65 SSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 65 66 SW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 66 67 SW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 64 64 SW 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 62 62 SW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 60 60 SW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 56 56 SSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 53 53 SW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 50 50 SW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 48 48 S 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 47 47 SE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 45 45 SE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 43 43 SE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 42 42 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 44 44 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 44 44 SE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 41 41 SSE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 40 40 SE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 44 44 ESE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 41 41 ESE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 45 45 SE 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 47 47 SSW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 46 46 SW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 54 54 SW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 55 55 SW 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 53 53 SW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 49 49 WSW 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 49 49 WSW 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 53 53 SW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 45 45 W 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 49 49 W 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 47 47 W 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 41 41 WNW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 40 40 WNW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 44 44 NNE 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 41 41 ENE 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 36 36 WSW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 42 42 SSW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 39 39 S 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 35 35 SSW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 40 40 SSW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 42 42 SSW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 39 39 SSW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 37 37 WSW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 40 40 WSW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 46 46 WSW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 52 53 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 56 58 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 59 61 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 60 62 W 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 60 61 W 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 61 61 W 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 59 59 W 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 57 57 W 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 54 54 W 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 51 51 WNW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 49 49 WNW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 47 47 WNW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 46 46 NW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 45 45 NW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 NW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 43 43 NW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 42 42 NW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 41 41 NW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 40 40 NW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 38 38 NW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 37 37 NW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 38 38 NW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 41 41 NW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 46 47 NW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 52 54 WNW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 56 59 WNW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 59 63 WNW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 60 63 W 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 60 62 W 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 60 61 W 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 59 59 W 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 56 56 W 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 52 52 W 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 49 49 W 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 47 47 W 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 45 45 W 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 44 44 W 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 42 42 W 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 W 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 40 40 WNW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 39 39 WNW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 39 39 WNW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 38 38 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 36 36 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 35 35 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 37 37 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 42 42 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 49 50 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 56 58 SW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 60 63 SW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 62 65 SW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 64 67 WSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 63 65 WSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 64 65 WSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 62 62 WSW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 59 59 WSW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 54 54 WSW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 51 51 WSW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 48 48 WSW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 46 46 WSW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 44 44 WSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 43 43 WSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 WSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 41 41 WSW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 40 40 WSW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 40 40 WSW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 39 39 W 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst