Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.2845028, -116.6696569, 5130
LZ Altitude (f): 3130
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time UTC:

 250217/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 N 3 8 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 N 3 8 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 N 3 8 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 N 4 9 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 44 N 4 9 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 43 NNE 3 8 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 NE 2 6 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 43 NE 2 6 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 E 3 8 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 51 52 NNW 2 5 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 58 61 WSW 4 9 3508 5130 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 62 66 WSW 9 16 4802 5130 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 64 68 WSW 12 20 5333 5130 0 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 66 69 WSW 14 24 5636 5130 0 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 65 67 WSW 14 24 5029 5130 0 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 65 66 WSW 13 23 4802 5130 0 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 63 63 WSW 13 23 4059 5130 0 Blue 1
5 PM Mon 60 60 SW 10 17 3247 5130 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 55 55 S 6 12 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 53 53 SE 4 9 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 50 50 SE 3 8 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 48 48 E 3 8 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 46 46 ENE 3 9 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 45 45 ENE 3 9 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 44 44 NE 4 9 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 43 43 NE 4 9 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 41 41 NE 4 9 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 40 40 NE 4 9 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 40 40 NE 4 9 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 38 38 NE 4 9 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 39 39 N 4 9 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 38 38 N 4 9 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 41 41 NNW 4 9 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 47 48 W 3 8 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 57 WSW 3 9 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 59 62 SW 5 11 3769 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 63 67 S 6 13 5029 5130 0 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 66 69 SSE 9 16 5636 5130 0 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 65 67 SE 9 16 5029 5130 0 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 65 66 SE 8 14 4802 5130 0 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 66 66 SE 6 12 4802 5130 0 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 63 63 ESE 5 11 4059 5130 0 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 59 59 E 3 9 2984 5130 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 56 56 ENE 2 6 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 53 53 ENE 3 8 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 51 51 ENE 3 8 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 50 ENE 3 9 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 48 48 E 3 8 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 E 2 6 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 E 2 5 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 ENE 1 5 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 NE 1 1 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 44 NE 0 1 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 42 NNE 0 1 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 42 N 1 1 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 43 43 N 1 2 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 48 NNW 1 2 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 55 56 WNW 1 3 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 64 W 2 5 4467 5130 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 64 67 W 4 9 5029 5130 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 67 71 W 6 12 6250 5311 181 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 68 71 W 9 16 6250 5311 181 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 69 71 W 10 16 6250 5311 181 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 68 69 W 9 16 5636 5130 0 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 66 66 W 9 14 4802 5130 0 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 63 63 W 8 12 4059 5130 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 59 59 W 6 10 2984 5130 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 56 56 W 5 8 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 53 W 4 8 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 51 51 W 3 6 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 49 W 3 8 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 48 48 W 3 8 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 W 3 8 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 WNW 2 5 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 45 WNW 3 8 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 44 WNW 3 8 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 43 NW 2 4 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 42 42 NW 2 4 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 41 NW 2 4 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 43 43 NNE 2 4 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 48 NNE 2 4 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 55 NNE 2 4 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 63 E 4 10 4059 5130 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 63 67 E 4 10 5029 5130 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 65 69 E 4 10 5636 5130 0 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 66 70 ESE 10 16 5942 5130 0 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 66 69 ESE 10 16 5636 5130 0 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 67 68 ESE 10 16 5333 5130 0 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 65 65 SSE 8 13 4666 5130 0 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 62 62 SSE 8 13 3769 5130 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 59 59 SSE 8 13 2984 5130 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 56 56 ENE 3 6 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 53 53 ENE 3 6 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 51 51 ENE 3 6 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 50 ENE 2 4 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 49 ENE 2 4 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 ENE 2 4 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 47 ENE 2 4 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 45 45 ENE 2 4 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 44 44 ENE 2 4 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 43 NE 2 4 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 42 42 NE 2 4 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 NE 2 4 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 42 ENE 2 4 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 47 47 ENE 2 4 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 53 55 ENE 2 4 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 61 E 5 12 3508 5130 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 62 66 E 5 12 4802 5130 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 65 69 E 5 12 5636 5130 0 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 66 70 E 10 17 5942 5130 0 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 66 69 E 10 17 5636 5130 0 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 66 67 E 10 17 5029 5130 0 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 66 66 E 8 12 4802 5130 0 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 63 63 E 8 12 4059 5130 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 59 59 E 8 12 2984 5130 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 56 56 ENE 2 4 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 53 53 ENE 2 4 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 51 51 ENE 2 4 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 50 50 ENE 2 4 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 48 ENE 2 4 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 47 47 ENE 2 4 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 46 NE 1 3 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 45 45 NE 1 3 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 NE 1 3 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 NE 1 2 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 NE 1 2 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 NE 1 2 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 ENE 1 3 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 48 ENE 1 3 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 57 ENE 1 3 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 64 E 2 8 4467 5130 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 65 69 E 2 8 5636 5130 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 67 71 E 2 8 6250 5311 181 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 68 72 SSW 8 13 6628 5610 480 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 68 71 SSW 8 13 6250 5311 181 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 68 69 SSW 8 13 5636 5130 0 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 68 68 WSW 6 11 5333 5130 0 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 65 65 WSW 6 11 4666 5130 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 62 62 WSW 6 11 3769 5130 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 58 58 N 2 3 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 55 55 N 2 3 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 53 53 N 2 3 2780 5130 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 51 51 NE 2 3 2780 5130 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst