Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.7298, -117.063, 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

14 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 50 45 WNW 6 13 1722 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 43 NW 6 10 686 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 41 NW 5 9 686 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 41 NW 4 6 686 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 40 NW 4 6 686 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 38 NW 5 8 686 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 38 WNW 4 8 686 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 42 37 WSW 2 3 686 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 40 SSW 1 1 686 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 44 SSW 2 4 786 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 52 48 SW 4 8 2365 1850 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 55 52 WSW 6 10 3780 2686 836 White 7
12 Noon Sun 58 55 WSW 8 12 4416 3889 2039 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 59 56 SW 10 17 4647 4205 2355 White 11
2 PM Sun 59 56 WSW 12 19 4647 4205 2355 White 11
3 PM Sun 60 56 WSW 14 24 4647 4205 2355 White 11
4 PM Sun 59 55 WSW 16 25 4416 3889 2039 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 59 54 WSW 17 26 4213 3400 1550 White 9
6 PM Sun 58 53 WSW 16 26 3997 3104 1254 White 8
7 PM Sun 56 51 W 14 23 3429 2361 511 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 54 49 W 12 19 2723 2068 218 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 52 47 WSW 10 16 2212 1850 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 50 45 WSW 9 13 1722 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 49 44 WSW 8 12 786 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 43 WSW 6 11 686 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 42 W 5 9 686 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 41 WSW 4 6 686 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 41 WSW 3 5 686 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 40 W 3 5 686 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 41 W 4 6 686 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 40 W 4 8 686 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 39 W 4 8 686 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 40 WSW 5 8 686 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 49 45 WSW 5 9 1722 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 49 WSW 5 9 2723 2068 218 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 54 53 WSW 5 10 3997 3104 1254 White 8
12 Noon Mon 58 58 WSW 6 10 5085 4393 2543 White 13
1 PM Mon 61 61 W 6 11 5722 5606 3756 White 16
2 PM Mon 63 63 W 6 11 6145 6044 4194 White 18
3 PM Mon 66 65 W 8 12 6567 6479 4629 White 20
4 PM Mon 66 63 W 8 12 6145 6044 4194 White 18
5 PM Mon 66 62 W 8 12 5933 5825 3975 White 17
6 PM Mon 65 60 W 6 11 5509 5323 3473 White 15
7 PM Mon 61 56 W 6 11 4647 4205 2355 White 11
8 PM Mon 58 53 W 5 10 3997 3104 1254 White 8
9 PM Mon 55 50 WNW 4 8 3113 2209 359 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 54 49 NNW 3 5 2723 2068 218 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 52 47 N 2 3 2212 1850 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 52 47 N 1 1 2212 1850 0 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 50 45 NNE 1 1 1722 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 43 NNE 1 1 686 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 44 NNE 1 1 786 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 43 NE 1 1 686 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 46 41 NE 2 2 686 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 43 NE 2 3 686 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 45 NE 2 3 1722 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 46 NE 2 4 2069 1850 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 58 55 NNE 3 4 4416 3889 2039 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 63 62 NNW 3 4 5933 5825 3975 White 17
11 AM Tue 66 67 WNW 3 5 6987 6912 5062 White 22
12 Noon Tue 73 75 WNW 3 5 8651 8415 6565 White 30
1 PM Tue 74 77 W 4 6 9068 9068 7218 White 32
2 PM Tue 73 75 W 5 8 8651 8415 6565 White 30
3 PM Tue 78 78 W 6 11 9275 9275 7425 White 33
4 PM Tue 78 76 W 9 14 8860 8793 6943 White 31
5 PM Tue 73 69 W 10 17 7406 7406 5556 White 24
6 PM Tue 76 71 W 10 16 7822 7822 5972 White 26
7 PM Tue 73 68 W 8 12 7197 7156 5306 White 23
8 PM Tue 64 59 W 5 10 5298 4671 2821 White 14
9 PM Tue 64 59 WNW 4 8 5298 4671 2821 White 14
10 PM Tue 63 58 N 3 5 5085 4393 2543 White 13
11 PM Tue 58 53 NE 3 5 3997 3104 1254 White 8
12 Midnight Wed 56 51 E 3 5 3429 2361 511 Blue 6
1 AM Wed 55 50 E 3 5 3113 2209 359 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 55 50 NE 2 4 3113 2209 359 Blue 5
3 AM Wed 55 50 ESE 3 5 3113 2209 359 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 54 49 ESE 3 5 2723 2068 218 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 53 48 ENE 2 4 2365 1850 0 Blue 3
6 AM Wed 53 48 ENE 2 4 2365 1850 0 Blue 3
7 AM Wed 55 50 ENE 2 4 3113 2209 359 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 58 54 NE 3 5 4213 3400 1550 White 9
9 AM Wed 63 60 NE 3 5 5509 5323 3473 White 15
10 AM Wed 69 68 NE 3 5 7197 7156 5306 White 23
11 AM Wed 74 75 W 5 8 8651 8415 6565 White 30
12 Noon Wed 77 79 W 5 8 9483 9483 7633 White 34
1 PM Wed 79 81 W 5 8 9897 9897 8047 White 36
2 PM Wed 80 81 W 9 13 9897 9897 8047 White 36
3 PM Wed 82 82 W 9 13 10102 10102 8252 White 37
4 PM Wed 81 79 W 9 13 9483 9483 7633 White 34
5 PM Wed 81 77 WSW 9 14 9068 9068 7218 White 32
6 PM Wed 78 73 WSW 9 14 8235 8173 6323 White 28
7 PM Wed 73 68 WSW 9 14 7197 7156 5306 White 23
8 PM Wed 69 64 WSW 6 11 6356 6262 4412 White 19
9 PM Wed 66 61 WSW 6 11 5722 5606 3756 White 16
10 PM Wed 63 58 WSW 6 11 5085 4393 2543 White 13
11 PM Wed 61 56 ENE 4 6 4647 4205 2355 White 11
12 Midnight Thu 59 54 ENE 4 6 4213 3400 1550 White 9
1 AM Thu 58 53 ENE 4 6 3997 3104 1254 White 8
2 AM Thu 56 51 ENE 3 5 3429 2361 511 Blue 6
3 AM Thu 55 50 ENE 3 5 3113 2209 359 Blue 5
4 AM Thu 54 49 ENE 3 5 2723 2068 218 Blue 4
5 AM Thu 54 49 E 3 5 2723 2068 218 Blue 4
6 AM Thu 54 49 E 3 5 2723 2068 218 Blue 4
7 AM Thu 56 51 E 3 5 3429 2361 511 Blue 6
8 AM Thu 58 53 SE 4 6 3997 3104 1254 White 8
9 AM Thu 63 59 SE 4 6 5298 4671 2821 White 14
10 AM Thu 68 66 SE 4 6 6778 6696 4846 White 21
11 AM Thu 73 72 WSW 6 10 8028 8028 6178 White 27
12 Noon Thu 76 76 WSW 6 10 8860 8793 6943 White 31
1 PM Thu 78 78 WSW 6 10 9275 9275 7425 White 33
2 PM Thu 80 79 WSW 10 16 9483 9483 7633 White 34
3 PM Thu 79 77 WSW 10 16 9068 9068 7218 White 32
4 PM Thu 80 77 WSW 10 16 9068 9068 7218 White 32
5 PM Thu 78 74 SW 11 18 8443 8269 6419 White 29
6 PM Thu 75 70 SW 11 18 7613 7613 5763 White 25
7 PM Thu 71 66 SW 11 18 6778 6696 4846 White 21
8 PM Thu 67 62 WSW 8 12 5933 5825 3975 White 17
9 PM Thu 64 59 WSW 8 12 5298 4671 2821 White 14
10 PM Thu 62 57 WSW 8 12 4870 4248 2398 White 12
11 PM Thu 60 55 SW 5 8 4416 3889 2039 Blue 10
12 Midnight Fri 58 53 SW 5 8 3997 3104 1254 White 8
1 AM Fri 56 51 SW 5 8 3429 2361 511 Blue 6
2 AM Fri 55 50 SSE 3 5 3113 2209 359 Blue 5
3 AM Fri 54 49 SSE 3 5 2723 2068 218 Blue 4
4 AM Fri 53 48 SSE 3 5 2365 1850 0 Blue 3
5 AM Fri 52 47 ESE 3 5 2212 1850 0 Blue 2
6 AM Fri 52 47 ESE 3 5 2212 1850 0 Blue 2
7 AM Fri 53 48 ESE 3 5 2365 1850 0 Blue 3
8 AM Fri 55 50 WSW 4 6 3113 2209 359 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 58 54 WSW 4 6 4213 3400 1550 White 9
10 AM Fri 63 61 WSW 4 6 5722 5606 3756 White 16
11 AM Fri 68 69 WSW 6 11 7406 7406 5556 White 24
12 Noon Fri 71 73 WSW 6 11 8235 8173 6323 White 28
1 PM Fri 74 76 WSW 6 11 8860 8793 6943 White 31
2 PM Fri 75 76 WSW 10 17 8860 8793 6943 White 31
3 PM Fri 75 75 WSW 10 17 8651 8415 6565 White 30
4 PM Fri 76 74 WSW 10 17 8443 8269 6419 White 29
5 PM Fri 74 70 WSW 11 18 7613 7613 5763 White 25
6 PM Fri 71 66 WSW 11 18 6778 6696 4846 White 21
7 PM Fri 67 62 WSW 11 18 5933 5825 3975 White 17
8 PM Fri 64 59 WSW 9 13 5298 4671 2821 White 14
9 PM Fri 61 56 WSW 9 13 4647 4205 2355 White 11
10 PM Fri 59 54 WSW 9 13 4213 3400 1550 White 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst