Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.7298, -117.063, 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 45 40 NNW 1 5 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 40 NNE 1 5 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 40 N 2 5 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 40 N 2 5 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 40 N 2 5 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 45 40 N 1 5 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 40 N 1 5 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 40 N 1 5 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 40 N 1 4 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 53 48 NW 1 4 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 61 57 WSW 1 5 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 67 63 WSW 2 5 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 71 68 SW 3 8 1901 1850 0 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 72 68 WSW 4 9 1901 1850 0 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 73 69 WSW 4 10 2014 1850 0 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 72 67 SW 5 11 1788 1850 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 68 63 SSW 9 17 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 63 58 SSW 6 12 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 60 55 SSW 4 10 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 57 52 SSW 3 8 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 55 50 SSW 3 9 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 52 47 SSW 4 10 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 50 45 SSW 5 12 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 47 42 SSW 6 12 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 45 40 SSW 5 11 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 44 39 SSW 4 10 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 42 37 SW 4 9 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 37 SW 3 8 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 42 37 WSW 2 5 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 37 SSW 1 5 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 42 37 SSE 1 4 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 37 SE 1 4 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 42 37 SSE 1 1 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 45 S 1 1 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 54 SSW 2 5 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 64 61 SSW 3 9 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 68 65 SSW 5 11 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 68 65 SSW 8 14 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 68 64 SSW 9 16 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 68 63 SSW 10 17 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 67 62 SSW 9 16 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 64 59 SSW 8 14 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 61 56 SSW 5 11 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 58 53 SSW 3 9 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 56 51 SW 3 8 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 49 WSW 3 8 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 53 48 W 3 8 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 52 47 W 2 6 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 45 WSW 2 6 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 44 WSW 2 5 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 43 W 1 5 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 42 NW 1 1 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 42 37 NNW 1 1 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 35 NW 1 1 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 40 35 W 1 5 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 35 W 2 5 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 45 40 W 2 5 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 48 WSW 2 6 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 55 WSW 2 6 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 63 60 W 3 9 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 66 63 NNW 4 10 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 68 65 N 5 11 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 69 65 N 5 11 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 69 64 N 5 11 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 67 62 N 5 11 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 64 59 ENE 6 12 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 60 55 SSE 8 14 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 56 51 S 8 14 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 54 49 S 8 14 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 51 46 S 6 12 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 44 S 5 10 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 48 43 SE 4 9 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 46 41 ENE 3 8 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 40 N 3 6 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 39 N 2 6 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 43 38 N 2 6 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 37 N 2 6 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 36 N 2 6 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 36 N 2 6 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 41 36 ENE 5 8 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 42 ENE 5 8 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 50 ENE 5 8 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 57 NE 5 10 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 65 62 NE 5 10 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 68 65 NE 5 10 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 70 67 NNE 6 10 1788 1850 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 71 67 NNE 6 10 1788 1850 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 71 66 NNE 6 10 1646 1850 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 69 64 NNE 8 11 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 66 61 NNE 8 11 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 62 57 NNE 8 11 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 58 53 ENE 6 11 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 56 51 ENE 6 11 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 49 ENE 6 11 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 47 ENE 6 10 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 46 ENE 6 10 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 45 ENE 6 10 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 44 ENE 6 10 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 43 ENE 6 10 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 42 ENE 6 10 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 41 ENE 6 10 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 39 ENE 6 10 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 43 38 ENE 6 10 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 39 ENE 6 10 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 44 ENE 6 10 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 51 ENE 6 10 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 62 58 ENE 8 12 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 66 63 ENE 8 12 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 70 67 ENE 8 12 1788 1850 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 71 68 ENE 9 14 1901 1850 0 Blue 1
2 PM Fri 72 68 ENE 9 14 1901 1850 0 Blue 1
3 PM Fri 71 66 ENE 9 14 1646 1850 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 69 64 ENE 9 12 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 66 61 ENE 9 12 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 63 58 ENE 9 12 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 60 55 ENE 8 12 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 58 53 ENE 8 12 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 51 ENE 8 12 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 49 ENE 8 11 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 53 48 ENE 8 11 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 47 ENE 8 11 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 46 ENE 8 11 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 45 ENE 8 11 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 45 ENE 8 11 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 44 ENE 8 11 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 43 ENE 8 11 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 43 ENE 8 11 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 43 ENE 8 11 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 46 ENE 8 11 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 53 ENE 8 11 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 63 59 E 9 13 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 67 64 E 9 13 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 70 67 E 9 13 1788 1850 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 71 68 E 9 14 1901 1850 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 71 67 E 9 14 1788 1850 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 70 65 E 9 14 1493 1850 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 69 64 ENE 8 13 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 66 61 ENE 8 13 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 63 58 ENE 8 13 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 60 55 ENE 8 11 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 58 53 ENE 8 11 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 51 ENE 8 11 1404 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 50 ENE 6 11 1404 1850 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst