Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.7298, -117.063, 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

30 NOV 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 44 39 NW 2 6 646 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 43 38 W 2 5 646 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 38 WSW 2 6 646 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 41 36 SW 3 9 646 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 40 35 SSW 4 9 646 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 39 34 SSW 3 9 646 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 38 33 S 3 8 646 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 38 33 SSW 3 8 646 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 41 36 SSW 2 6 646 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 45 41 SSW 3 9 646 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 52 49 SW 4 9 1808 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 55 52 SW 4 10 2903 1850 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 57 54 SW 5 11 3032 2792 942 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 59 56 SSW 8 14 3161 2965 1115 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 58 54 SSW 8 14 3032 2792 942 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 58 53 SW 9 16 2968 2263 413 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 56 51 SSW 10 17 2820 1850 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 53 48 SSW 9 17 1332 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 51 46 SSW 9 16 646 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 49 44 SSW 8 14 646 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 49 44 SSW 6 13 646 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 48 43 SSW 5 12 646 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 42 SSW 5 10 646 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 46 41 SSW 4 10 646 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 46 41 SSW 4 9 646 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 40 S 3 9 646 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 40 S 3 9 646 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 39 S 4 9 646 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 38 S 4 9 646 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 38 S 3 8 646 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 37 SSE 3 8 646 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 43 38 SSE 2 6 646 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 44 39 S 3 9 646 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 45 40 S 5 11 646 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 49 44 SSW 6 13 646 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 51 46 SSW 8 14 646 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 53 48 SSW 9 16 1332 1850 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 54 49 SSW 9 16 1808 1850 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 55 50 SSW 10 17 2274 1850 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 56 51 SW 10 17 2820 1850 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 56 51 SW 10 17 2820 1850 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 55 50 SW 9 14 2274 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 54 49 SSW 6 12 1808 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 52 47 SSW 5 11 845 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 51 46 SSW 5 10 646 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 50 45 S 5 11 646 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 49 44 S 5 12 646 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 48 43 S 6 13 646 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 44 S 8 14 646 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 44 S 8 14 646 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 43 S 6 13 646 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 43 SSE 5 12 646 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 43 SSE 4 10 646 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 43 SE 4 10 646 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 43 SE 4 10 646 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 43 ESE 4 10 646 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 43 SE 5 10 646 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 49 44 S 5 11 646 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 51 47 SSW 5 11 845 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 53 49 SSW 5 11 1808 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 55 51 SSW 5 11 2820 1850 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 56 52 SSW 5 10 2903 1850 0 Blue 1
2 PM Fri 57 52 SSW 4 10 2903 1850 0 Blue 1
3 PM Fri 57 52 SSW 4 9 2903 1850 0 Blue 1
4 PM Fri 57 52 SSW 3 8 2903 1850 0 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 56 51 SW 3 8 2820 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 54 49 WSW 2 6 1808 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 53 48 W 2 5 1332 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 47 WNW 2 5 845 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 50 45 N 2 6 646 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 44 NNE 3 6 646 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 43 N 3 6 646 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 47 42 NNW 2 6 646 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 41 NW 2 6 646 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 41 N 2 6 646 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 40 E 2 5 646 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 40 ESE 2 5 646 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 39 ESE 2 5 646 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 38 ESE 2 5 646 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 39 SSE 5 10 646 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 42 SSE 5 10 646 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 47 SSE 5 10 845 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 57 53 SSW 4 10 2968 2263 413 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 60 57 SSW 4 10 3225 3029 1179 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 62 59 SSW 4 10 3467 3157 1307 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 64 60 SSW 6 12 4454 3222 1372 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 64 60 SSW 6 12 4454 3222 1372 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 63 58 SSW 6 12 3289 3093 1243 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 62 57 SSW 9 16 3225 3029 1179 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 59 54 SSW 9 16 3032 2792 942 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 56 51 SSW 9 16 2820 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 53 48 S 5 11 1332 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 47 S 5 11 845 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 50 45 S 5 11 646 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 45 SSW 4 9 646 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 49 44 SSW 4 9 646 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 43 SSW 4 9 646 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 47 42 SSW 2 5 646 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 41 SSW 2 5 646 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 40 SSW 2 5 646 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 39 S 2 5 646 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 38 S 2 5 646 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 37 S 2 5 646 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 42 37 SSW 3 8 646 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 40 SSW 3 8 646 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 49 44 SSW 3 8 646 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 53 48 W 3 9 1332 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 55 51 W 3 9 2820 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 57 53 W 3 9 2968 2263 413 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 58 54 WNW 10 17 3032 2792 942 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 59 54 WNW 10 17 3032 2792 942 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 59 54 WNW 10 17 3032 2792 942 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 58 53 W 12 20 2968 2263 413 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 56 51 W 12 20 2820 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 53 48 W 12 20 1332 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 50 45 W 8 13 646 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 49 44 W 8 13 646 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 48 43 W 8 13 646 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 41 SSW 4 9 646 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 46 41 SSW 4 9 646 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 45 40 SSW 4 9 646 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 39 ESE 3 9 646 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 38 ESE 3 9 646 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 37 ESE 3 9 646 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 41 36 ESE 5 11 646 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 40 35 ESE 5 11 646 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 38 33 ESE 5 11 646 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 39 34 SE 5 10 646 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 36 SE 5 10 646 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 45 41 SE 5 10 646 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 49 46 W 3 9 646 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 52 49 W 3 9 1808 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 55 52 W 3 9 2903 1850 0 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 57 54 NW 4 10 3032 2792 942 Blue 3
2 PM Mon 59 55 NW 4 10 3096 2901 1051 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 59 54 NW 4 10 3032 2792 942 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 58 53 NE 10 18 2968 2263 413 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 56 51 NE 10 18 2820 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 54 49 NE 10 18 1808 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 51 46 N 5 11 646 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 48 43 N 5 11 646 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 46 41 N 5 11 646 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 44 39 NW 2 6 646 1850 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst