Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.7298, -117.063, 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

28 MAR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 50 45 WSW 2 6 541 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 44 WSW 2 6 541 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 42 SW 2 6 541 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 41 SW 2 5 541 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 41 SW 2 6 541 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 44 39 W 3 6 541 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 39 WNW 3 8 541 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 39 WNW 3 9 541 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 46 41 SW 2 6 541 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 47 SSW 2 5 870 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 55 51 SW 2 6 2169 1850 0 White 1
11 AM Thu 59 59 SW 3 9 2868 2773 923 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 62 63 WSW 4 10 3880 2941 1091 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 65 66 WSW 4 10 4319 3869 2019 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 66 65 SW 6 13 4186 3495 1645 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 66 64 SW 10 17 4033 3027 1177 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 67 64 WSW 10 17 4033 3027 1177 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 66 62 W 13 21 3536 2867 1017 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 64 59 W 11 19 2868 2773 923 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 62 57 W 10 18 2806 2711 861 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 57 52 W 9 16 2267 1850 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 54 49 WSW 8 14 1726 1850 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 52 47 SSW 6 13 870 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 46 S 6 12 541 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 45 S 6 12 541 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 44 S 6 12 541 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 42 S 6 12 541 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 42 S 5 11 541 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 40 S 4 10 541 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 40 S 4 9 541 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 40 S 4 9 541 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 39 S 4 10 541 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 40 S 5 11 541 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 47 42 S 6 12 541 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 50 46 SSW 6 13 541 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 53 50 SSW 8 14 1948 1850 0 White 0
12 Noon Fri 55 53 SSW 9 16 2608 2133 283 White 3
1 PM Fri 57 55 SSW 10 18 2743 2266 416 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 58 56 SSW 11 19 2775 2332 482 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 58 56 SSW 13 21 2775 2332 482 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 58 54 SSW 14 24 2712 2199 349 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 57 52 SSW 14 24 2267 1850 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 55 50 SSW 13 23 1948 1850 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 53 48 SSW 12 20 1365 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 45 SW 10 18 541 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 44 SW 9 16 541 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 43 SSW 6 13 541 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 47 42 SSW 6 12 541 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 41 SSW 8 13 541 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 41 SSW 9 16 541 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 41 SSW 10 18 541 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 41 SSW 11 18 541 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 40 S 11 18 541 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 41 S 11 18 541 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 41 S 10 18 541 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 41 S 11 18 541 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 42 S 11 19 541 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 48 43 S 13 23 541 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 49 44 SSW 16 26 541 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 50 45 SSW 18 28 541 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 50 45 SSW 17 27 541 1850 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 50 45 SSW 16 26 541 1850 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 50 45 SSW 14 24 541 1850 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 49 44 SSW 14 24 541 1850 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 49 44 SSW 14 24 541 1850 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 49 44 SSW 13 23 541 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 48 43 SSW 12 20 541 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 48 43 S 10 17 541 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 47 42 S 8 14 541 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 47 42 S 8 14 541 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 46 41 S 8 13 541 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 41 S 8 13 541 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 40 S 6 13 541 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 39 SSE 6 12 541 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 39 SSE 5 11 541 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 38 SSE 5 11 541 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 38 SE 5 10 541 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 38 SE 5 10 541 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 38 SE 5 10 541 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 38 SE 5 10 541 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 39 SSE 3 9 541 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 41 SSE 3 9 541 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 48 43 SSE 3 9 541 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 50 46 S 10 18 541 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 52 48 S 10 18 1365 1850 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 53 49 S 10 18 1726 1850 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 53 49 S 9 16 1726 1850 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 53 48 S 9 16 1365 1850 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 53 48 S 9 16 1365 1850 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 52 47 S 10 17 870 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 51 46 S 10 17 541 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 50 45 S 10 17 541 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 49 44 SE 6 12 541 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 48 43 SE 6 12 541 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 48 43 SE 6 12 541 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 42 E 3 8 541 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 41 E 3 8 541 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 40 E 3 8 541 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 44 39 E 3 8 541 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 39 E 3 8 541 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 39 E 3 8 541 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 39 ENE 3 8 541 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 38 ENE 3 8 541 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 39 ENE 3 8 541 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 39 S 3 8 541 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 47 43 S 3 8 541 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 50 46 S 3 8 541 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 52 49 W 5 11 1726 1850 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 55 53 W 5 11 2608 2133 283 White 3
1 PM Mon 58 56 W 5 11 2775 2332 482 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 60 58 W 8 13 2837 2742 892 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 61 58 W 8 13 2837 2742 892 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 62 58 W 8 13 2837 2742 892 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 61 57 W 8 14 2806 2711 861 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 60 55 W 8 14 2743 2266 416 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 58 53 W 8 14 2608 2133 283 White 3
8 PM Mon 56 51 WSW 6 12 2169 1850 0 White 1
9 PM Mon 53 48 WSW 6 12 1365 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 46 WSW 6 12 541 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 45 E 3 8 541 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 43 E 3 8 541 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 42 E 3 8 541 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 41 ENE 2 6 541 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 40 ENE 2 6 541 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 45 40 ENE 2 6 541 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 39 NE 2 6 541 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 39 NE 2 6 541 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 40 NE 2 6 541 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 42 NE 3 9 541 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 48 NE 3 9 1365 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 54 NE 3 9 2712 2199 349 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 61 61 WNW 5 11 3031 2836 986 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 64 65 WNW 5 11 4186 3495 1645 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 67 69 WNW 5 11 4821 4307 2457 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 69 70 WNW 5 11 5011 4435 2585 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 71 70 WNW 5 11 5011 4435 2585 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 70 68 WNW 5 11 4590 4173 2323 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 70 66 WNW 6 13 4319 3869 2019 Blue 16
6 PM Tue 69 64 WNW 6 13 4033 3027 1177 Blue 14
7 PM Tue 66 61 WNW 6 13 3031 2836 986 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 63 58 WSW 5 11 2837 2742 892 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 60 55 WSW 5 11 2743 2266 416 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 57 52 WSW 5 11 2267 1850 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst