Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.7298, -117.063, 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

13 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 71 66 WSW 1 3 2143 2005 155 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 71 66 S 1 3 2143 2005 155 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 70 65 WSW 1 3 2103 1932 82 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 69 64 SW 2 5 2063 1859 9 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 68 63 SW 0 1 2006 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 68 63 WSW 0 1 2006 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 66 61 N 2 3 1859 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 78 73 SSW 1 2 2322 2254 404 Blue 9
8 AM Sat 82 78 WSW 3 4 2442 2366 516 Blue 14
9 AM Sat 86 83 WSW 4 5 2757 2553 703 Blue 19
10 AM Sat 88 87 SW 6 8 3171 2858 1008 Blue 23
11 AM Sat 91 90 SW 6 7 3483 3167 1317 Blue 26
12 Noon Sat 93 95 SW 6 8 4100 3747 1897 Blue 31
1 PM Sat 95 99 SW 8 9 4545 4208 2358 Blue 35
2 PM Sat 97 100 SW 8 10 4650 4323 2473 Blue 36
3 PM Sat 96 98 SW 10 12 4441 4092 2242 Blue 34
4 PM Sat 92 88 SSW 14 16 3252 2961 1111 Blue 24
5 PM Sat 89 84 SSW 11 13 2861 2627 777 Blue 20
6 PM Sat 87 83 WNW 4 5 2757 2553 703 Blue 19
7 PM Sat 82 77 SW 5 6 2413 2344 494 Blue 13
8 PM Sat 78 73 SW 2 5 2322 2254 404 Blue 9
9 PM Sat 75 70 SW 1 2 2254 2182 332 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 74 69 SSW 1 2 2232 2142 292 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 73 68 SSE 1 2 2209 2102 252 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 73 68 E 0 0 2209 2102 252 Blue 4
1 AM Sun 72 67 SW 1 3 2182 2063 213 Blue 3
2 AM Sun 71 66 SSW 2 4 2143 2005 155 Blue 2
3 AM Sun 71 66 SW 2 4 2143 2005 155 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 70 65 WSW 1 2 2103 1932 82 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 70 65 W 0 1 2103 1932 82 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 73 68 SSW 2 4 2209 2102 252 Blue 4
7 AM Sun 76 71 SSW 1 1 2277 2209 359 Blue 7
8 AM Sun 79 75 W 2 2 2367 2299 449 Blue 11
9 AM Sun 82 80 W 4 4 2555 2413 563 Blue 16
10 AM Sun 86 86 WSW 4 5 3067 2755 905 Blue 22
11 AM Sun 90 92 WSW 5 6 3753 3330 1480 Blue 28
12 Noon Sun 93 96 WSW 6 8 4216 3862 2012 Blue 32
1 PM Sun 95 99 SW 9 10 4545 4208 2358 Blue 35
2 PM Sun 96 93 SW 11 12 3869 3476 1626 Blue 29
3 PM Sun 95 97 SW 11 13 4332 3977 2127 Blue 33
4 PM Sun 94 94 SW 11 12 3985 3624 1774 Blue 30
5 PM Sun 92 90 SW 9 10 3483 3167 1317 Blue 26
6 PM Sun 89 85 SW 7 8 2964 2688 838 Blue 21
7 PM Sun 83 78 SW 5 5 2442 2366 516 Blue 14
8 PM Sun 78 73 SW 4 7 2322 2254 404 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 75 70 S 3 7 2254 2182 332 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 73 68 SSW 2 6 2209 2102 252 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 71 66 SW 1 2 2143 2005 155 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 70 65 WSW 1 2 2103 1932 82 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 70 65 W 1 2 2103 1932 82 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 69 64 NW 0 1 2063 1859 9 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 68 63 WNW 1 3 2006 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 68 63 SW 0 0 2006 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 67 62 WSW 1 2 1932 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 70 65 WNW 0 1 2103 1932 82 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 74 69 NW 0 1 2232 2142 292 Blue 5
8 AM Mon 78 74 WNW 2 2 2344 2277 427 Blue 10
9 AM Mon 82 80 W 3 3 2555 2413 563 Blue 16
10 AM Mon 86 86 W 4 5 3067 2755 905 Blue 22
11 AM Mon 90 92 W 5 6 3753 3330 1480 Blue 28
12 Noon Mon 93 97 WSW 6 7 4332 3977 2127 Blue 33
1 PM Mon 95 99 WSW 8 10 4545 4208 2358 Blue 35
2 PM Mon 96 99 WSW 11 12 4545 4208 2358 Blue 35
3 PM Mon 95 97 WSW 12 14 4332 3977 2127 Blue 33
4 PM Mon 94 94 SW 11 13 3985 3624 1774 Blue 30
5 PM Mon 91 89 SW 10 12 3334 3064 1214 Blue 25
6 PM Mon 89 85 SW 6 7 2964 2688 838 Blue 21
7 PM Mon 83 78 WSW 5 5 2442 2366 516 Blue 14
8 PM Mon 77 72 SW 4 8 2300 2231 381 Blue 8
9 PM Mon 74 69 SSW 2 5 2232 2142 292 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 72 67 SSW 2 6 2182 2063 213 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 70 65 SSW 2 5 2103 1932 82 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst