Detailed Predictions for: Slide Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.31966654775122, -119.8678295108672, 8200
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 54 39 W 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 49 34 WSW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 47 32 WNW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 47 32 WNW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 47 32 WNW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 48 33 WNW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 48 33 W 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 50 35 WNW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 53 39 NNW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 56 44 NNE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 58 47 NE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 60 50 ENE 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 62 48 E 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 64 56 SE 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 67 53 SW 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 69 55 W 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 65 51 WNW 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 63 48 WNW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 63 48 WNW 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 64 49 WNW 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 60 45 NW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 58 43 NW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 56 41 WNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 55 40 W 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 55 40 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 51 36 W 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 49 34 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 49 34 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 48 33 WSW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 47 32 W 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 47 32 W 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 50 35 WNW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 52 38 NW 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 55 43 NNE 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 57 46 E 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 60 47 SE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 63 56 S 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 64 57 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 71 64 SW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 72 63 SW 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 74 64 W 17 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 72 60 W 19 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 70 56 W 19 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 68 53 W 17 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 61 46 W 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 58 43 W 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 56 41 W 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 55 40 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 54 39 W 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 50 35 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 49 34 WNW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 49 34 WNW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 48 33 NW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 48 33 WNW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 47 32 WNW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 50 35 NW 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 53 39 NNE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 55 43 NE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 57 47 NE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 60 51 NE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 61 54 NE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 63 56 NE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 69 62 NE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 73 64 NE 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 74 64 NE 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 75 63 NE 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 75 61 NNE 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 73 58 NNE 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 65 50 NNE 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 63 48 NNE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 61 46 N 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 61 46 N 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]