Detailed Predictions for: Slide Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.31966654775122, -119.8678295108672, 8200
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

 KREV

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 37 22 W 26 39 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 36 21 W 23 34 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 34 19 W 23 34 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 33 18 W 23 34 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 31 16 W 21 32 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 30 15 W 21 32 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 28 13 W 21 32 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 30 15 W 13 20 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 32 17 W 13 20 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 35 20 W 13 20 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 36 21 WSW 9 14 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 37 22 WSW 9 14 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 38 23 WSW 9 14 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 40 25 W 10 14 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 41 26 W 10 14 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 38 23 W 10 14 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 36 21 NW 5 9 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 34 19 NW 5 9 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 31 16 NW 5 9 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 30 15 NNW 4 6 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 30 15 NNW 4 6 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 29 14 NNW 4 6 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 29 14 NW 4 6 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 28 13 NW 4 6 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 28 13 NW 4 6 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 27 12 NNW 5 8 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 27 12 NNW 5 8 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 26 11 NNW 5 8 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 25 10 NNE 5 9 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 23 8 NNE 5 9 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 22 7 NNE 5 9 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 23 8 NE 9 12 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 23 8 NE 9 12 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 24 9 NE 9 12 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 24 9 NE 13 20 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 25 11 NE 13 20 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 26 12 NE 13 20 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 26 12 ENE 11 17 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 25 11 ENE 11 17 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 24 9 ENE 11 17 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 23 8 ENE 18 28 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 22 7 ENE 18 28 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 21 6 ENE 18 28 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 21 6 ENE 19 29 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 21 6 ENE 19 29 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 22 7 ENE 19 29 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 22 7 ESE 20 31 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 22 7 ESE 20 31 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 23 8 ESE 20 31 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 23 8 SE 18 28 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 23 8 SE 18 28 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 22 7 SE 18 28 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 22 7 SE 16 25 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 22 7 SE 16 25 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 21 6 SE 16 25 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 21 6 SE 14 23 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 22 7 SE 14 23 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 23 8 SE 14 23 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 24 10 SE 9 12 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 25 11 SE 9 12 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 27 13 SE 9 12 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 27 13 ESE 10 11 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 27 13 ESE 10 11 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 26 11 ESE 10 11 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 24 9 ESE 9 12 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 23 8 ESE 9 12 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 22 7 ESE 9 12 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 21 6 SSE 8 12 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 21 6 SSE 8 12 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 22 7 SSE 8 12 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 23 8 S 9 13 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 23 8 S 9 13 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 24 9 S 9 13 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 24 9 S 9 13 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 24 9 S 9 13 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 25 10 S 9 13 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 25 10 SSW 8 11 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 25 10 SSW 8 11 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 25 10 SSW 8 11 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 25 10 SSW 8 12 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 26 11 SSW 8 12 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 27 12 SSW 8 12 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 28 13 SSW 6 10 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 29 14 SSW 6 10 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 31 16 SSW 6 10 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 31 16 S 6 10 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 31 16 S 6 10 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 29 14 S 6 10 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 27 12 SE 6 10 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 27 12 SE 6 10 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 26 11 SE 6 10 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 26 11 SSE 6 11 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 26 11 SSE 6 11 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 26 11 SSE 6 11 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 26 11 S 9 12 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 27 12 S 9 12 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 27 12 S 9 12 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 28 13 S 9 13 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 28 13 S 9 13 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 28 13 S 9 13 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 27 12 S 8 12 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 27 12 S 8 12 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 27 12 S 8 12 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 27 12 S 8 12 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 27 12 S 8 12 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 27 12 S 8 12 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 28 13 SSE 6 10 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 29 14 SSE 6 10 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 31 16 SSE 6 10 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 31 16 ESE 8 10 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 30 15 ESE 8 10 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 28 13 ESE 8 10 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 27 12 E 8 11 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 26 11 E 8 11 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 25 10 E 8 11 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 25 10 SE 8 12 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 25 10 SE 8 12 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 26 11 SE 8 12 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 26 11 S 9 14 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 26 11 S 9 14 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 27 12 S 9 14 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 27 12 SSW 9 14 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 27 12 SSW 9 14 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 27 12 SSW 9 14 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 27 12 SSW 9 13 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 26 11 SSW 9 13 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 26 11 SSW 9 13 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 27 12 S 9 12 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 27 12 S 9 12 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 28 13 S 9 12 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 29 14 SE 8 11 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 30 16 SE 8 11 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 32 18 SE 8 11 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 32 18 E 8 11 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 31 16 E 8 11 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 30 15 E 8 11 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 28 13 ENE 8 12 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 26 11 ENE 8 12 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 25 10 ENE 8 12 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 25 10 ESE 9 13 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 25 10 ESE 9 13 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 25 10 ESE 9 13 9196 9196 996 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 26 11 S 10 16 9196 9196 996 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]