Detailed Predictions for: Inspiration Point
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.3011, -111.626, 6700
LZ Altitude (f): 4900
Sounding

Station:

 KSLC

Date/Time:

 25 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 S 6 12 11035 9845 3145 White 4
1 AM Thu 54 54 S 6 12 10598 9229 2529 White 2
2 AM Thu 54 54 S 6 12 10598 9229 2529 White 2
3 AM Thu 55 55 S 5 11 10817 9707 3007 White 3
4 AM Thu 52 52 S 5 11 9722 7497 797 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 50 50 S 5 11 8458 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 SE 6 12 7532 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 SE 6 12 6494 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 50 SE 6 12 8458 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 54 S 6 12 10598 9229 2529 White 2
10 AM Thu 55 57 S 6 12 11253 10078 3378 White 5
11 AM Thu 56 59 S 6 12 11685 11555 4855 White 7
12 Noon Thu 57 59 W 11 17 11685 11555 4855 White 7
1 PM Thu 57 60 W 11 17 11901 11901 5201 White 8
2 PM Thu 58 60 W 11 17 11901 11901 5201 White 8
3 PM Thu 55 56 WSW 14 17 11035 9845 3145 White 4
4 PM Thu 55 56 WSW 14 17 11035 9845 3145 White 4
5 PM Thu 54 54 WSW 14 17 10598 9229 2529 White 2
6 PM Thu 53 53 W 11 12 9861 8401 1701 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 51 51 W 11 12 9304 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 48 48 W 11 12 6494 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 46 46 NW 6 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 46 46 NW 6 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 45 45 NW 6 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 WSW 5 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 45 45 WSW 5 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 45 45 WSW 5 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 45 W 5 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 45 W 5 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 43 W 5 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 43 43 SE 4 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 SE 4 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 42 SE 4 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 44 44 SW 4 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 45 45 SW 4 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 44 44 SW 4 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 45 45 WSW 6 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 45 45 WSW 6 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 45 45 WSW 6 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 44 44 W 10 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 43 43 W 10 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 42 42 W 10 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 41 41 W 8 11 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 40 40 W 8 11 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 39 39 W 8 11 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 38 38 W 6 13 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 38 38 W 6 13 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 38 38 W 6 13 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 38 38 NNE 6 12 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 38 38 NNE 6 12 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 39 NNE 6 12 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 NE 8 13 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 39 39 NE 8 13 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 NE 8 13 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 40 40 WNW 9 12 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 40 WNW 9 12 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 WNW 9 12 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 41 41 W 9 13 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 40 40 W 9 13 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 40 40 W 9 13 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 39 39 WNW 13 16 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 39 40 WNW 13 16 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 39 39 WNW 13 16 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 40 41 WNW 13 16 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 41 41 WNW 13 16 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 42 42 WNW 13 16 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 42 42 WNW 11 17 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 42 42 WNW 11 17 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 41 41 WNW 11 17 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 40 40 W 10 13 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 40 40 W 10 13 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 41 41 W 10 13 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 W 6 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 41 41 W 6 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 41 41 W 6 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 41 41 W 6 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 40 40 W 6 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 39 39 W 6 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 W 6 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 39 39 W 6 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 41 41 W 6 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 43 44 WSW 6 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 44 45 WSW 6 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 45 47 WSW 6 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 46 49 W 9 12 7532 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 47 50 W 9 12 8458 6700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 48 51 W 9 12 9304 6700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 48 51 WNW 9 14 9304 6700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 49 51 WNW 9 14 9304 6700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 50 51 WNW 9 14 9304 6700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 50 50 WNW 10 14 8458 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 48 48 WNW 10 14 6494 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 46 46 WNW 10 14 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 44 44 NNE 6 11 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 43 43 NNE 6 11 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 42 42 NNE 6 11 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 E 8 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 42 E 8 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 42 E 8 10 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 41 ESE 6 11 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 40 40 ESE 6 11 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 39 39 ESE 6 11 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 39 39 ESE 8 11 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 41 41 ESE 8 11 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 43 43 ESE 8 11 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 47 SSE 9 12 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 49 51 SSE 9 12 9304 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 52 55 SSE 9 12 10817 9707 3007 White 3
12 Noon Mon 54 59 SW 10 16 11685 11555 4855 White 7
1 PM Mon 56 61 SW 10 16 12114 12114 5414 White 9
2 PM Mon 57 62 SW 10 16 12326 12326 5626 White 10
3 PM Mon 57 61 SW 12 18 12114 12114 5414 White 9
4 PM Mon 58 61 SW 12 18 12114 12114 5414 White 9
5 PM Mon 58 60 SW 12 18 11901 11901 5201 White 8
6 PM Mon 58 59 SW 12 19 11685 11555 4855 White 7
7 PM Mon 56 56 SW 12 19 11035 9845 3145 White 4
8 PM Mon 54 54 SW 12 19 10598 9229 2529 White 2
9 PM Mon 52 52 SE 8 12 9722 7497 797 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 51 51 SE 8 12 9304 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 50 SE 8 12 8458 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 ESE 9 12 7532 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 48 48 ESE 9 12 6494 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 48 ESE 9 12 6494 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 47 E 8 12 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 46 46 E 8 12 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 44 E 8 12 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 E 8 11 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 E 8 11 6286 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 48 E 8 11 6494 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 52 SE 8 11 9722 7497 797 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 53 56 SE 8 11 11035 9845 3145 White 4
11 AM Tue 56 60 SE 8 11 11901 11901 5201 White 8
12 Noon Tue 58 63 SW 10 14 12537 12537 5837 White 11
1 PM Tue 60 66 SW 10 14 13170 13170 6470 White 14
2 PM Tue 62 68 SW 10 14 13590 13590 6890 White 16
3 PM Tue 63 68 SW 11 17 13590 13590 6890 White 16
4 PM Tue 64 67 SW 11 17 13380 13380 6680 White 15
5 PM Tue 64 66 SW 11 17 13170 13170 6470 White 14
6 PM Tue 64 65 WSW 11 16 12960 12960 6260 White 13
7 PM Tue 61 61 WSW 11 16 12114 12114 5414 White 9
8 PM Tue 58 58 WSW 11 16 11469 11076 4376 White 6
9 PM Tue 56 56 ESE 8 12 11035 9845 3145 White 4
10 PM Tue 55 55 ESE 8 12 10817 9707 3007 White 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]