Detailed Predictions for: Inspiration Point
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.3011, -111.626, 6700
LZ Altitude (f): 4900
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

29 JAN 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 23 23 S 6 13 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 25 25 S 6 13 5800 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 24 24 S 10 17 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 24 24 S 10 17 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 24 24 S 10 17 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 25 25 S 10 18 5800 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 25 25 S 10 18 5800 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 25 25 S 10 18 5800 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 24 24 S 10 16 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 25 25 S 10 16 5800 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 25 25 S 10 16 5800 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 27 27 SW 8 12 7718 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 27 27 SW 8 12 7718 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 27 27 SW 8 12 7718 6700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 25 25 WSW 5 10 5800 6700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 24 24 WSW 5 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 23 23 WSW 5 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 20 20 WSW 6 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 19 19 WSW 6 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 18 18 WSW 6 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 17 17 WSW 6 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 17 17 WSW 6 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 15 15 WSW 6 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 15 15 W 5 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 15 15 W 5 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 15 15 W 5 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 15 15 WSW 6 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 15 15 WSW 6 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 13 13 WSW 6 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 12 12 SSW 5 9 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 10 10 SSW 5 9 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 9 9 SSW 5 9 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 8 8 NNE 5 9 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 10 10 NNE 5 9 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 12 12 NNE 5 9 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 13 13 WSW 5 8 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 13 14 WSW 5 8 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 15 16 WSW 5 8 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 15 15 W 5 9 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 15 15 W 5 9 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 13 13 W 5 9 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 10 10 WNW 5 8 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 9 9 WNW 5 8 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 6 6 WNW 5 8 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 5 5 NNE 6 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 5 5 NNE 6 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 5 5 NNE 6 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 5 5 ENE 5 9 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 5 5 ENE 5 9 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 5 5 ENE 5 9 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 6 6 ENE 5 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 6 6 ENE 5 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 6 6 ENE 5 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 6 6 ENE 5 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 6 6 ENE 5 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 5 5 ENE 5 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 5 5 ENE 6 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 9 9 ENE 6 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 13 14 ENE 6 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 17 18 WSW 4 6 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 19 21 WSW 4 6 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 20 22 WSW 4 6 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 20 21 W 5 8 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 20 21 W 5 8 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 19 19 W 5 8 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 17 17 W 4 6 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 15 15 W 4 6 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 13 13 W 4 6 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 10 10 E 5 9 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 10 10 E 5 9 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 10 10 E 5 9 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 10 10 E 5 8 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 12 12 E 5 8 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 13 13 E 5 8 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 14 14 E 5 9 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 14 14 E 5 9 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 14 14 E 5 9 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 14 14 E 5 9 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 14 14 E 5 9 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 14 14 E 5 9 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 15 15 E 5 9 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 18 18 E 5 9 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 21 21 E 5 9 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 24 25 SW 5 8 5800 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 25 26 SW 5 8 6812 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 26 27 SW 5 8 7718 6700 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 26 27 W 5 9 7718 6700 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 26 27 W 5 9 7718 6700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 25 25 W 5 9 5800 6700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 23 23 W 5 8 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 21 21 W 5 8 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 18 18 W 5 8 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 15 15 E 6 9 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 15 15 E 6 9 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 14 14 E 6 9 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 14 14 E 5 9 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 15 15 E 5 9 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 17 17 E 5 9 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 18 18 E 6 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 19 19 E 6 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 19 19 E 6 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 19 19 E 6 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 19 19 E 6 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 19 19 E 6 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 20 20 E 6 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 23 23 E 6 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 26 26 E 6 10 6812 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 29 30 S 5 8 9721 7681 981 White 1
12 Noon Thu 30 32 S 5 8 10155 9246 2546 White 2
1 PM Thu 31 33 S 5 8 10369 10015 3315 White 3
2 PM Thu 31 32 SSW 5 8 10155 9246 2546 White 2
3 PM Thu 31 32 SSW 5 8 10155 9246 2546 White 2
4 PM Thu 29 29 SSW 5 8 9317 6799 99 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 28 28 SSE 5 8 8547 6700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 26 26 SSE 5 8 6812 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 24 24 SSE 5 8 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 23 23 E 5 9 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 22 22 E 5 9 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 22 22 E 5 9 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 22 22 E 6 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 23 23 E 6 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 24 24 E 6 10 5036 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 25 25 E 6 10 5800 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 25 25 E 6 10 5800 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 25 25 E 6 10 5800 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 25 25 ESE 8 11 5800 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 25 25 ESE 8 11 5800 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 26 26 ESE 8 11 6812 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 27 27 ESE 8 11 7718 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 29 29 ESE 8 11 9317 6799 99 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 32 32 ESE 8 11 10155 9246 2546 White 2
11 AM Fri 34 34 SSE 6 11 10580 10580 3880 White 4
12 Noon Fri 35 35 SSE 6 11 10789 10789 4089 White 5
1 PM Fri 35 35 SSE 6 11 10789 10789 4089 White 5
2 PM Fri 35 35 SSW 6 10 10789 10789 4089 White 5
3 PM Fri 34 34 SSW 6 10 10580 10580 3880 White 4
4 PM Fri 33 33 SSW 6 10 10369 10015 3315 White 3
5 PM Fri 31 31 S 6 10 9938 8492 1792 White 1
6 PM Fri 29 29 S 6 10 9317 6799 99 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 28 28 S 6 10 8547 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 27 27 SSE 8 11 7718 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 27 27 SSE 8 11 7718 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 27 27 SSE 8 11 7718 6700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]