Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.606, -111.5089, 9950
LZ Altitude (f): 8200
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

29 JAN 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 16 16 SSE 2 3 9745 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 23 23 SE 2 3 12096 12096 2146 White 7
2 AM Sun 23 23 SSE 3 3 12096 12096 2146 White 7
3 AM Sun 15 15 SSE 3 4 8944 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 25 25 SSE 3 3 12527 12527 2577 White 9
5 AM Sun 25 25 SSE 3 4 12527 12527 2577 White 9
6 AM Sun 15 15 SSE 3 4 8944 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 24 24 S 4 4 12311 12311 2361 White 8
8 AM Sun 24 24 S 3 4 12311 12311 2361 White 8
9 AM Sun 14 14 S 3 5 8099 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 17 17 SSW 3 6 10635 9950 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 18 18 SSW 2 5 11010 9950 0 White 2
12 Noon Sun 19 19 SW 1 3 11228 9950 0 White 3
1 PM Sun 17 17 W 1 3 10635 9950 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 16 16 NW 1 3 9745 9950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 20 20 NNW 3 6 11446 10587 637 White 4
4 PM Sun 15 15 N 4 7 8944 9950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 14 14 NNE 4 9 8099 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 19 19 NNE 5 10 11228 9950 0 White 3
7 PM Sun 12 12 NNE 4 7 6146 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 13 13 NNE 4 6 7176 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 16 16 NE 3 4 9745 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 14 14 NE 3 4 8099 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 12 12 NE 3 4 6146 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 12 12 NE 2 4 6146 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 10 10 NE 3 4 5036 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 8 8 NNE 3 5 5036 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 8 8 NE 3 4 5036 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 7 7 NE 2 4 5036 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 6 6 NE 2 3 5036 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 5 5 NNE 1 3 5036 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 3 3 NNE 2 4 5036 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 4 4 NE 1 2 5036 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 4 4 N 1 2 5036 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 11 11 NE 1 1 5036 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 5 6 N 0 1 5036 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 9 11 NW 1 2 5036 9950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 11 12 WNW 2 4 6146 9950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 14 15 WNW 2 4 8944 9950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 14 15 WNW 2 4 8944 9950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 14 14 WNW 3 5 8099 9950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 11 11 NW 2 5 5036 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 17 17 NW 1 2 10635 9950 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 8 8 WNW 1 3 5036 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 5 5 WSW 0 1 5036 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 4 4 S 0 1 5036 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 3 3 SSE 0 1 5036 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 2 2 SE 0 1 5036 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 1 1 SSE 1 2 5036 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 1 1 S 0 1 5036 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 1 1 S 0 1 5036 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 2 2 SW 0 1 5036 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 2 2 SSE 1 2 5036 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 2 2 S 1 2 5036 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 2 2 S 0 1 5036 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 3 3 S 1 2 5036 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 3 3 S 1 2 5036 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 4 4 S 2 4 5036 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 13 14 SSE 1 2 8099 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 16 18 S 2 3 11010 9950 0 White 2
12 Noon Tue 15 17 SSW 2 5 10635 9950 0 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 17 19 SSW 2 5 11228 9950 0 White 3
2 PM Tue 18 20 SSW 2 5 11446 10587 637 White 4
3 PM Tue 20 21 SSW 2 5 11663 11408 1458 White 5
4 PM Tue 21 21 SW 2 4 11663 11408 1458 White 5
5 PM Tue 22 22 SW 2 3 11879 11879 1929 White 6
6 PM Tue 23 23 SW 2 3 12096 12096 2146 White 7
7 PM Tue 20 20 SW 2 3 11446 10587 637 White 4
8 PM Tue 17 17 SSW 2 3 10635 9950 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 14 14 SSW 1 3 8099 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 14 14 SSW 1 3 8099 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 14 14 SW 1 3 8099 9950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]