Detailed Predictions for: Mollies Nipple
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.1239, -113.298, 4375
LZ Altitude (f): 3320
Sounding

Station:

 KSLC

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 ESE 5 5 3989 4375 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 42 42 ESE 5 5 3989 4375 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 E 5 5 3551 4375 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 38 38 E 5 5 3431 4375 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 37 37 E 5 5 3431 4375 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 37 37 E 4 5 3431 4375 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 36 36 E 4 5 3431 4375 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 37 37 E 4 5 3431 4375 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 37 37 SSE 3 5 3431 4375 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 39 39 SSE 3 5 3431 4375 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 44 44 SSE 3 5 4425 4425 50 White 6
11 AM Mon 50 51 WSW 4 6 5963 5893 1518 White 13
12 Noon Mon 53 54 WSW 4 6 6614 6296 1921 White 16
1 PM Mon 56 57 WSW 4 6 6991 6698 2323 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 59 60 SSW 4 8 7903 6981 2606 White 22
3 PM Mon 58 58 SSW 4 8 7344 6816 2441 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 58 58 SSW 4 8 7344 6816 2441 Blue 20
5 PM Mon 55 55 E 5 9 6825 6430 2055 Blue 17
6 PM Mon 51 51 E 5 9 5963 5893 1518 White 13
7 PM Mon 48 48 E 5 9 5311 5311 936 White 10
8 PM Mon 47 47 E 9 11 5094 5094 719 White 9
9 PM Mon 46 46 E 9 11 4870 4870 495 White 8
10 PM Mon 45 45 E 9 11 4644 4644 269 White 7
11 PM Mon 44 44 ESE 9 12 4425 4425 50 White 6
12 Midnight Tue 44 44 ESE 9 12 4425 4425 50 White 6
1 AM Tue 43 43 ESE 9 12 4207 4375 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 42 42 ESE 8 10 3989 4375 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 41 41 ESE 8 10 3771 4375 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 40 40 ESE 8 10 3551 4375 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 39 39 ESE 5 8 3431 4375 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 37 37 ESE 5 8 3431 4375 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 38 38 ESE 5 8 3431 4375 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 38 38 ESE 4 5 3431 4375 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 41 41 ESE 4 5 3771 4375 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 45 45 ESE 4 5 4644 4644 269 White 7
11 AM Tue 49 50 WSW 4 6 5747 5747 1372 White 12
12 Noon Tue 54 55 WSW 4 6 6825 6430 2055 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 56 57 WSW 4 6 6991 6698 2323 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 57 58 W 4 6 7344 6816 2441 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 57 57 W 4 6 6991 6698 2323 Blue 19
4 PM Tue 56 56 W 4 6 6908 6564 2189 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 55 55 E 3 5 6825 6430 2055 Blue 17
6 PM Tue 52 52 E 3 5 6181 6027 1652 White 14
7 PM Tue 48 48 E 3 5 5311 5311 936 White 10
8 PM Tue 45 45 NE 12 18 4644 4644 269 White 7
9 PM Tue 44 44 NE 12 18 4425 4425 50 White 6
10 PM Tue 43 43 NE 12 18 4207 4375 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 43 43 ENE 11 17 4207 4375 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 ENE 11 17 3989 4375 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 41 41 ENE 11 17 3771 4375 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 40 40 NE 10 13 3551 4375 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 39 39 NE 10 13 3431 4375 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 38 38 NE 10 13 3431 4375 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 37 37 NE 9 13 3431 4375 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 37 37 NE 9 13 3431 4375 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 36 36 NE 9 13 3431 4375 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 35 35 NE 8 11 3431 4375 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 38 38 NE 8 11 3431 4375 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 43 43 NE 8 11 4207 4375 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 47 48 NNE 9 13 5311 5311 936 White 10
12 Noon Wed 50 52 NNE 9 13 6181 6027 1652 White 14
1 PM Wed 53 55 NNE 9 13 6825 6430 2055 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 54 55 N 10 13 6825 6430 2055 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 54 55 N 10 13 6825 6430 2055 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 54 54 N 10 13 6614 6296 1921 White 16
5 PM Wed 52 52 N 9 13 6181 6027 1652 White 14
6 PM Wed 49 49 N 9 13 5528 5528 1153 White 11
7 PM Wed 46 46 N 9 13 4870 4870 495 White 8
8 PM Wed 44 44 NNE 12 17 4425 4425 50 White 6
9 PM Wed 43 43 NNE 12 17 4207 4375 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 42 42 NNE 12 17 3989 4375 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 42 42 NE 11 13 3989 4375 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 41 41 NE 11 13 3771 4375 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 41 41 NE 11 13 3771 4375 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 40 40 NE 8 10 3551 4375 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 39 39 NE 8 10 3431 4375 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 37 37 NE 8 10 3431 4375 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 36 36 NE 6 10 3431 4375 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 34 34 NE 6 10 3431 4375 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 33 33 NE 6 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 34 34 NE 6 10 3431 4375 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 37 37 NE 6 10 3431 4375 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 42 43 NE 6 10 4207 4375 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 47 48 NE 5 10 5311 5311 936 White 10
12 Noon Thu 51 53 NE 5 10 6397 6161 1786 White 15
1 PM Thu 53 55 NE 5 10 6825 6430 2055 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 55 56 W 6 10 6908 6564 2189 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 55 56 W 6 10 6908 6564 2189 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 54 54 W 6 10 6614 6296 1921 White 16
5 PM Thu 53 53 NNW 5 9 6397 6161 1786 White 15
6 PM Thu 51 51 NNW 5 9 5963 5893 1518 White 13
7 PM Thu 48 48 NNW 5 9 5311 5311 936 White 10
8 PM Thu 46 46 NE 6 11 4870 4870 495 White 8
9 PM Thu 45 45 NE 6 11 4644 4644 269 White 7
10 PM Thu 44 44 NE 6 11 4425 4425 50 White 6
11 PM Thu 44 44 ENE 8 11 4425 4425 50 White 6
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 ENE 8 11 4207 4375 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 42 42 ENE 8 11 3989 4375 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 41 41 ENE 6 11 3771 4375 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 40 40 ENE 6 11 3551 4375 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 38 38 ENE 6 11 3431 4375 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 37 37 E 6 11 3431 4375 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 36 36 E 6 11 3431 4375 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 35 35 E 6 11 3431 4375 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 36 36 E 8 11 3431 4375 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 39 39 E 8 11 3431 4375 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 45 45 E 8 11 4644 4644 269 White 7
11 AM Fri 50 51 ESE 6 10 5963 5893 1518 White 13
12 Noon Fri 53 55 ESE 6 10 6825 6430 2055 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 56 58 ESE 6 10 7344 6816 2441 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 58 59 E 8 11 7689 6898 2523 White 21
3 PM Fri 58 58 E 8 11 7344 6816 2441 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 58 58 E 8 11 7344 6816 2441 Blue 20
5 PM Fri 56 56 E 6 10 6908 6564 2189 Blue 18
6 PM Fri 53 53 E 6 10 6397 6161 1786 White 15
7 PM Fri 51 51 E 6 10 5963 5893 1518 White 13
8 PM Fri 48 48 E 8 12 5311 5311 936 White 10
9 PM Fri 47 47 E 8 12 5094 5094 719 White 9
10 PM Fri 46 46 E 8 12 4870 4870 495 White 8
11 PM Fri 45 45 E 9 12 4644 4644 269 White 7
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 E 9 12 4425 4425 50 White 6
1 AM Sat 43 43 E 9 12 4207 4375 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 E 8 11 3989 4375 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 41 41 E 8 11 3771 4375 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 40 40 E 8 11 3551 4375 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 39 39 E 8 12 3431 4375 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 37 37 E 8 12 3431 4375 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 36 36 E 8 12 3431 4375 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 37 37 E 8 11 3431 4375 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 40 40 E 8 11 3551 4375 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 46 46 E 8 11 4870 4870 495 White 8
11 AM Sat 51 52 ESE 8 12 6181 6027 1652 White 14
12 Noon Sat 54 55 ESE 8 12 6825 6430 2055 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 57 58 ESE 8 12 7344 6816 2441 Blue 20
2 PM Sat 58 59 ESE 8 11 7689 6898 2523 White 21
3 PM Sat 59 59 ESE 8 11 7689 6898 2523 White 21
4 PM Sat 58 58 ESE 8 11 7344 6816 2441 Blue 20
5 PM Sat 56 56 ESE 6 10 6908 6564 2189 Blue 18
6 PM Sat 53 53 ESE 6 10 6397 6161 1786 White 15
7 PM Sat 51 51 ESE 6 10 5963 5893 1518 White 13
8 PM Sat 48 48 E 8 11 5311 5311 936 White 10
9 PM Sat 47 47 E 8 11 5094 5094 719 White 9
10 PM Sat 46 46 E 8 11 4870 4870 495 White 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]