Detailed Predictions for: Pt Of The Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.4715, -111.8883, 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

 KSLC

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 32 32 SE 5 9 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 32 32 SE 5 9 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 30 30 SE 5 10 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 29 29 SE 5 10 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 29 29 SE 5 10 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 29 29 SE 5 10 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 28 28 SE 5 10 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 28 28 SE 5 10 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 28 28 SE 5 10 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 30 30 SE 5 10 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 33 33 SE 5 10 5476 5371 171 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 36 37 SW 5 10 6031 5614 414 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 38 39 SW 5 10 6309 5891 691 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 40 41 SW 5 10 6587 6168 968 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 41 42 N 5 9 6725 6306 1106 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 40 40 N 5 9 6448 6029 829 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 38 38 N 5 9 6170 5753 553 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 35 35 N 5 10 5754 5371 171 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 31 31 N 5 10 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 30 30 N 5 10 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 31 31 N 4 8 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 31 31 N 4 8 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 31 31 N 4 8 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 31 31 NNE 4 6 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 30 30 NNE 4 6 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 30 30 NNE 4 6 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 30 30 N 5 8 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 29 29 N 5 8 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 29 29 N 5 8 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 29 29 N 5 9 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 28 28 N 5 9 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 28 28 N 5 9 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 28 28 N 6 10 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 28 28 N 6 10 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 31 31 N 6 10 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 34 34 N 8 11 5615 5371 171 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 36 36 N 8 11 5893 5476 276 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 37 37 N 8 11 6031 5614 414 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 37 37 N 9 12 6031 5614 414 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 36 36 N 9 12 5893 5476 276 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 35 35 N 9 12 5754 5371 171 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 33 33 N 10 13 5476 5371 171 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 32 32 N 10 13 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 32 32 N 10 13 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 31 31 N 8 11 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 31 31 N 8 11 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 30 30 N 8 11 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 30 30 N 5 9 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 29 29 N 5 9 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 29 29 N 5 9 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 28 28 NNE 8 11 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 28 28 NNE 8 11 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 27 27 NNE 8 11 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 27 27 NNE 5 10 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 27 27 NNE 5 10 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 26 26 NNE 5 10 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 26 26 NE 6 10 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 27 27 NE 6 10 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 29 29 NE 6 10 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 32 33 N 6 10 5476 5371 171 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 34 35 N 6 10 5754 5371 171 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 36 37 N 6 10 6031 5614 414 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 37 38 NNW 8 11 6170 5753 553 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 37 37 NNW 8 11 6031 5614 414 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 35 35 NNW 8 11 5754 5371 171 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 33 33 NNW 8 11 5476 5371 171 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 32 32 NNW 8 11 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 31 31 NNW 8 11 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 30 30 N 5 9 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 30 30 N 5 9 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 30 30 N 5 9 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 30 30 E 0 5 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 29 29 E 0 5 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 29 29 E 0 5 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 28 28 E 5 6 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 27 27 E 5 6 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 27 27 E 5 6 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 26 26 ESE 4 6 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 25 25 ESE 4 6 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 25 25 ESE 4 6 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 25 25 SSE 6 10 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 26 26 SSE 6 10 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 29 29 SSE 6 10 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 31 32 S 6 10 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 34 35 S 6 10 5754 5371 171 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 37 38 S 6 10 6170 5753 553 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 38 39 SW 5 9 6309 5891 691 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 37 37 SW 5 9 6031 5614 414 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 35 35 SW 5 9 5754 5371 171 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 33 33 NW 5 9 5476 5371 171 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 32 32 NW 5 9 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 31 31 NW 5 9 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 30 30 ENE 5 8 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 30 30 ENE 5 8 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 31 31 ENE 5 8 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 31 31 SE 5 8 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 31 31 SE 5 8 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 30 30 SE 5 8 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 29 29 SE 6 9 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 29 29 SE 6 9 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 29 29 SE 6 9 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 28 28 SE 6 9 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 27 27 SE 6 9 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 26 26 SE 6 9 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 26 26 SE 6 9 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 28 28 SE 6 9 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 31 31 SE 6 9 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 34 35 SSE 6 10 5754 5371 171 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 37 38 SSE 6 10 6170 5753 553 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 39 40 SSE 6 10 6448 6029 829 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 40 41 NW 5 8 6587 6168 968 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 39 39 NW 5 8 6309 5891 691 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 38 38 NW 5 8 6170 5753 553 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 36 36 N 5 9 5893 5476 276 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 35 35 N 5 9 5754 5371 171 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 33 33 N 5 9 5476 5371 171 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 32 32 E 5 9 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 32 32 E 5 9 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 33 33 E 5 9 5476 5371 171 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 33 33 SE 5 9 5476 5371 171 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 33 33 SE 5 9 5476 5371 171 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 32 32 SE 5 9 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 32 32 SE 6 10 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 32 32 SE 6 10 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 32 32 SE 6 10 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 31 31 SSE 6 10 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 30 30 SSE 6 10 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 29 29 SSE 6 10 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 30 30 SSE 6 10 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 31 31 SSE 6 10 5371 5371 171 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 34 34 SSE 6 10 5615 5371 171 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 36 36 SSE 6 11 5893 5476 276 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 39 39 SSE 6 11 6309 5891 691 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 41 41 SSE 6 11 6587 6168 968 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 42 42 S 6 11 6725 6306 1106 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 42 42 S 6 11 6725 6306 1106 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 40 40 S 6 11 6448 6029 829 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 38 38 SE 6 9 6170 5753 553 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 36 36 SE 6 9 5893 5476 276 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 34 34 SE 6 9 5615 5371 171 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 33 33 ESE 5 9 5476 5371 171 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 33 33 ESE 5 9 5476 5371 171 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 33 33 ESE 5 9 5476 5371 171 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]