Detailed Predictions for: BJ
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 48.8605, -122.126, 582
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

 KOTX

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 39 39 SSE 1 1 1263 1263 681 White 0
1 AM Mon 38 38 NE 2 3 1263 1263 681 White 0
2 AM Mon 39 39 NE 2 3 1263 1263 681 White 0
3 AM Mon 38 38 NE 2 3 1263 1263 681 White 0
4 AM Mon 36 36 N 2 3 1263 1263 681 White 0
5 AM Mon 38 38 N 2 3 1263 1263 681 White 0
6 AM Mon 36 36 N 2 3 1263 1263 681 White 0
7 AM Mon 35 35 NE 1 1 1263 1263 681 White 0
8 AM Mon 36 36 NE 1 1 1263 1263 681 White 0
9 AM Mon 36 36 NE 1 1 1263 1263 681 White 0
10 AM Mon 38 38 N 2 3 1263 1263 681 White 0
11 AM Mon 42 42 N 2 3 1390 1390 808 White 0
12 Noon Mon 43 43 N 2 3 1605 1605 1023 White 0
1 PM Mon 43 43 NW 1 1 1605 1605 1023 White 0
2 PM Mon 44 44 NW 1 1 1819 1819 1237 White 0
3 PM Mon 44 44 NW 1 1 1819 1819 1237 White 0
4 PM Mon 40 40 NE 2 3 1263 1263 681 White 0
5 PM Mon 40 40 NE 2 3 1263 1263 681 White 0
6 PM Mon 38 38 NE 2 3 1263 1263 681 White 0
7 PM Mon 35 35 NE 1 1 1263 1263 681 White 0
8 PM Mon 36 36 NE 1 1 1263 1263 681 White 0
9 PM Mon 34 34 NE 1 1 1263 1263 681 White 0
10 PM Mon 33 33 ESE 1 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 35 35 ESE 1 1 1263 1263 681 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 33 33 ESE 1 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 32 32 E 1 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 34 34 E 1 1 1263 1263 681 White 0
3 AM Tue 31 31 E 1 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 31 31 ENE 1 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 33 33 ENE 1 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 30 30 ENE 1 1 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 31 31 ESE 2 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 32 32 ESE 2 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 33 33 ESE 2 3 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 35 35 NE 1 1 1263 1263 681 White 0
11 AM Tue 41 41 NE 1 1 1263 1263 681 White 0
12 Noon Tue 43 43 NE 1 1 1605 1605 1023 White 0
1 PM Tue 42 42 NNE 2 3 1390 1390 808 White 0
2 PM Tue 42 42 NNE 2 3 1390 1390 808 White 0
3 PM Tue 40 40 NNE 2 3 1263 1263 681 White 0
4 PM Tue 39 39 ENE 4 5 1263 1263 681 White 0
5 PM Tue 37 37 ENE 4 5 1263 1263 681 White 0
6 PM Tue 35 35 ENE 4 5 1263 1263 681 White 0
7 PM Tue 34 34 ESE 3 4 1263 1263 681 White 0
8 PM Tue 33 33 ESE 3 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 33 33 ESE 3 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 33 33 ESE 4 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 33 33 ESE 4 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 33 33 ESE 4 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 33 33 E 3 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 33 33 E 3 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 33 33 E 3 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 33 33 ESE 4 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 33 33 ESE 4 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 33 33 ESE 4 5 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 33 33 ESE 5 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 34 34 ESE 5 8 1263 1263 681 White 0
9 AM Wed 35 35 ESE 5 8 1263 1263 681 White 0
10 AM Wed 37 37 ESE 5 8 1263 1263 681 White 0
11 AM Wed 39 39 ESE 5 8 1263 1263 681 White 0
12 Noon Wed 42 42 ESE 5 8 1390 1390 808 White 0
1 PM Wed 43 43 SE 6 9 1605 1605 1023 White 0
2 PM Wed 43 43 SE 6 9 1605 1605 1023 White 0
3 PM Wed 42 42 SE 6 9 1390 1390 808 White 0
4 PM Wed 40 40 SSE 10 13 1263 1263 681 White 0
5 PM Wed 39 39 SSE 10 13 1263 1263 681 White 0
6 PM Wed 37 37 SSE 10 13 1263 1263 681 White 0
7 PM Wed 36 36 SSE 8 10 1263 1263 681 White 0
8 PM Wed 36 36 SSE 8 10 1263 1263 681 White 0
9 PM Wed 36 36 SSE 8 10 1263 1263 681 White 0
10 PM Wed 36 36 SE 5 8 1263 1263 681 White 0
11 PM Wed 36 36 SE 5 8 1263 1263 681 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 35 35 SE 5 8 1263 1263 681 White 0
1 AM Thu 35 35 SE 4 5 1263 1263 681 White 0
2 AM Thu 35 35 SE 4 5 1263 1263 681 White 0
3 AM Thu 35 35 SE 4 5 1263 1263 681 White 0
4 AM Thu 35 35 ESE 3 4 1263 1263 681 White 0
5 AM Thu 34 34 ESE 3 4 1263 1263 681 White 0
6 AM Thu 33 33 ESE 3 4 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 33 33 ENE 5 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 33 33 ENE 5 8 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 35 35 ENE 5 8 1263 1263 681 White 0
10 AM Thu 36 36 ENE 5 8 1263 1263 681 White 0
11 AM Thu 38 38 ENE 5 8 1263 1263 681 White 0
12 Noon Thu 40 40 ENE 5 8 1263 1263 681 White 0
1 PM Thu 41 41 NE 6 9 1263 1263 681 White 0
2 PM Thu 40 40 NE 6 9 1263 1263 681 White 0
3 PM Thu 39 39 NE 6 9 1263 1263 681 White 0
4 PM Thu 37 37 ENE 6 9 1263 1263 681 White 0
5 PM Thu 36 36 ENE 6 9 1263 1263 681 White 0
6 PM Thu 34 34 ENE 6 9 1263 1263 681 White 0
7 PM Thu 33 33 E 8 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 32 32 E 8 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 32 32 E 8 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 32 32 E 9 11 0 582 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 32 32 E 9 11 0 582 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 32 32 E 9 11 0 582 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 32 32 E 9 11 0 582 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 32 32 E 9 11 0 582 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 32 32 E 9 11 0 582 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 32 32 E 9 12 0 582 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 32 32 E 9 12 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 32 32 E 9 12 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 33 33 E 9 13 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 34 34 E 9 13 1263 1263 681 White 0
9 AM Fri 35 35 E 9 13 1263 1263 681 White 0
10 AM Fri 36 36 E 9 12 1263 1263 681 White 0
11 AM Fri 38 38 E 9 12 1263 1263 681 White 0
12 Noon Fri 40 40 E 9 12 1263 1263 681 White 0
1 PM Fri 42 42 E 8 11 1390 1390 808 White 0
2 PM Fri 42 42 E 8 11 1390 1390 808 White 0
3 PM Fri 41 41 E 8 11 1263 1263 681 White 0
4 PM Fri 40 40 E 6 11 1263 1263 681 White 0
5 PM Fri 39 39 E 6 11 1263 1263 681 White 0
6 PM Fri 37 37 E 6 11 1263 1263 681 White 0
7 PM Fri 36 36 ESE 8 12 1263 1263 681 White 0
8 PM Fri 35 35 ESE 8 12 1263 1263 681 White 0
9 PM Fri 35 35 ESE 8 12 1263 1263 681 White 0
10 PM Fri 35 35 ESE 8 11 1263 1263 681 White 0
11 PM Fri 35 35 ESE 8 11 1263 1263 681 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 34 34 ESE 8 11 1263 1263 681 White 0
1 AM Sat 34 34 ESE 8 11 1263 1263 681 White 0
2 AM Sat 34 34 ESE 8 11 1263 1263 681 White 0
3 AM Sat 34 34 ESE 8 11 1263 1263 681 White 0
4 AM Sat 34 34 ESE 8 11 1263 1263 681 White 0
5 AM Sat 33 33 ESE 8 11 0 582 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 33 33 ESE 8 11 0 582 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 33 33 E 6 10 0 582 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 34 34 E 6 10 1263 1263 681 White 0
9 AM Sat 35 35 E 6 10 1263 1263 681 White 0
10 AM Sat 37 37 E 6 10 1263 1263 681 White 0
11 AM Sat 39 39 E 6 10 1263 1263 681 White 0
12 Noon Sat 41 41 E 6 10 1263 1263 681 White 0
1 PM Sat 42 42 E 6 9 1390 1390 808 White 0
2 PM Sat 42 42 E 6 9 1390 1390 808 White 0
3 PM Sat 41 41 E 6 9 1263 1263 681 White 0
4 PM Sat 39 39 E 5 9 1263 1263 681 White 0
5 PM Sat 38 38 E 5 9 1263 1263 681 White 0
6 PM Sat 36 36 E 5 9 1263 1263 681 White 0
7 PM Sat 35 35 E 6 9 1263 1263 681 White 0
8 PM Sat 34 34 E 6 9 1263 1263 681 White 0
9 PM Sat 34 34 E 6 9 1263 1263 681 White 0
10 PM Sat 34 34 E 6 10 1263 1263 681 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]