Detailed Predictions for: Blanchard
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 48.6097, -122.426, 396
LZ Altitude (f): 10
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

13 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 N 1 3 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 61 61 N 0 3 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 60 60 NNE 0 3 0 396 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 59 59 NNE 0 3 0 396 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 59 59 N 0 3 0 396 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 58 58 N 0 3 0 396 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 58 58 N 0 3 0 396 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 61 61 N 0 3 0 396 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 63 64 NW 0 3 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 67 69 WNW 1 3 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 71 75 WNW 2 4 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 73 78 W 5 8 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 76 82 WNW 6 9 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 76 83 WNW 6 9 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 79 86 WNW 6 9 0 396 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 80 86 WNW 8 11 0 396 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 80 85 NW 8 11 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 81 84 NW 8 11 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 79 81 NW 6 9 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 79 79 NW 6 9 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 77 77 NNW 5 8 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 70 70 NNW 5 8 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 67 67 N 4 6 0 396 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 64 64 NE 1 3 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 63 63 NE 1 3 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 62 62 NNE 1 3 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 61 61 NNE 1 3 0 396 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 59 59 NNE 1 3 0 396 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 59 59 N 1 3 0 396 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 58 58 N 1 4 0 396 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 58 58 N 1 4 0 396 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 61 61 W 1 4 0 396 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 64 65 S 1 4 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 67 69 SSW 1 5 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 71 75 WSW 2 6 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 73 78 W 3 6 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 75 81 W 3 6 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 77 84 W 3 6 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 78 85 W 4 9 0 396 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 79 85 W 4 9 0 396 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 79 84 W 4 9 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 78 81 W 3 8 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 77 79 W 3 8 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 76 76 W 3 8 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 74 74 SW 3 6 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 70 70 SW 3 6 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 66 66 SW 3 6 0 396 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 62 62 S 3 6 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 S 3 6 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 59 59 S 3 6 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 58 58 SSE 3 8 0 396 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 56 56 SSE 3 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 SSE 3 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 55 SSE 3 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 56 SSE 3 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 59 59 SSE 3 8 0 396 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 62 63 S 3 8 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 65 67 S 3 8 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 68 71 S 3 8 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 71 76 SW 3 9 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 73 79 SW 3 9 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 75 81 SW 3 9 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 76 83 WSW 4 10 0 396 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 78 84 WSW 4 10 0 396 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 79 84 WSW 4 10 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 79 82 WSW 4 9 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 78 80 WSW 4 9 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 77 77 WSW 4 9 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 74 74 SW 3 6 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 70 70 SW 3 6 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 66 66 SW 3 6 0 396 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 62 62 S 2 6 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 60 60 S 2 6 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 59 59 S 2 6 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 58 58 SSE 1 4 0 396 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 57 57 SSE 1 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 57 SSE 1 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 57 SE 1 4 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 58 SE 1 4 0 396 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 60 60 SE 1 4 0 396 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 62 63 S 1 4 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 65 67 S 1 4 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 69 73 S 1 4 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 72 77 W 2 5 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 75 81 W 2 5 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 77 84 W 2 5 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 78 85 W 4 9 0 396 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 79 85 W 4 9 0 396 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 80 85 W 4 9 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 80 83 W 3 8 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 79 81 W 3 8 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 78 78 W 3 8 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 75 75 W 2 5 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 71 71 W 2 5 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 67 67 W 2 5 0 396 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 64 64 SSE 1 4 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 62 62 SSE 1 4 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 61 61 SSE 1 4 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 60 60 ESE 1 3 0 396 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 59 59 ESE 1 3 0 396 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 59 59 ESE 1 3 0 396 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 E 1 3 0 396 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 61 61 E 1 3 0 396 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 63 63 E 1 3 0 396 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 66 67 SW 1 4 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 69 71 SW 1 4 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 72 75 SW 1 4 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 75 79 WSW 2 6 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 77 82 WSW 2 6 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 79 84 WSW 2 6 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 80 85 W 4 9 0 396 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 82 86 W 4 9 0 396 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 83 86 W 4 9 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 84 86 W 4 9 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 83 84 W 4 9 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 82 82 W 4 9 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 79 79 SSW 3 8 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 75 75 SSW 3 8 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 70 70 SSW 3 8 0 396 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 66 66 SSE 3 8 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 SSE 3 8 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 63 63 SSE 3 8 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 62 62 SSE 3 8 0 396 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 61 61 SSE 3 8 0 396 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 60 60 SSE 3 8 0 396 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 60 60 SSE 3 8 0 396 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 61 61 SSE 3 8 0 396 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 62 62 SSE 3 8 0 396 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 64 64 S 3 8 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 67 68 S 3 8 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 70 72 S 3 8 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 73 77 SSW 3 10 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 75 79 SSW 3 10 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 77 82 SSW 3 10 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 78 83 SW 5 10 0 396 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 80 85 SW 5 10 0 396 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 81 85 SW 5 10 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 81 84 WSW 4 10 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 80 81 WSW 4 10 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 79 79 WSW 4 10 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 76 76 SSW 3 9 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 72 72 SSW 3 9 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 68 68 SSW 3 9 0 396 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]