Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 47.68437 , -122.96199, 2044
LZ Altitude (f): 120
Sounding

Station:

 KOTX

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 NNW 2 3 2754 2652 608 White 6
1 AM Mon 42 42 NNW 2 3 2754 2652 608 White 6
2 AM Mon 42 42 NNW 2 3 2754 2652 608 White 6
3 AM Mon 42 42 NNW 2 3 2754 2652 608 White 6
4 AM Mon 42 42 NNW 3 4 2754 2652 608 White 6
5 AM Mon 41 41 NNW 3 4 2541 2540 496 White 5
6 AM Mon 41 41 NNW 3 4 2541 2540 496 White 5
7 AM Mon 41 41 NNW 2 3 2541 2540 496 White 5
8 AM Mon 41 41 NNW 2 3 2541 2540 496 White 5
9 AM Mon 40 40 NNW 2 3 2325 2325 281 White 0
10 AM Mon 42 42 ESE 3 4 2754 2652 608 White 6
11 AM Mon 44 44 ESE 3 4 3189 2955 911 White 8
12 Noon Mon 45 45 ESE 3 4 3406 3113 1069 White 9
1 PM Mon 45 45 E 3 4 3406 3113 1069 White 9
2 PM Mon 45 45 E 3 4 3406 3113 1069 White 9
3 PM Mon 45 45 E 3 4 3406 3113 1069 White 9
4 PM Mon 43 43 WNW 1 1 2972 2797 753 White 7
5 PM Mon 42 42 WNW 1 1 2754 2652 608 White 6
6 PM Mon 41 41 WNW 1 1 2541 2540 496 White 5
7 PM Mon 40 40 WNW 1 1 2325 2325 281 White 0
8 PM Mon 39 39 WNW 1 1 2109 2109 65 White 0
9 PM Mon 39 39 WNW 1 1 2109 2109 65 White 0
10 PM Mon 38 38 NNW 2 3 1892 2044 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 38 38 NNW 2 3 1892 2044 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 37 37 NNW 2 3 1771 2044 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 37 37 WSW 1 1 1771 2044 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 37 37 WSW 1 1 1771 2044 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 37 37 WSW 1 1 1771 2044 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 37 37 W 1 1 1771 2044 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 37 37 W 1 1 1771 2044 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 35 35 W 1 1 1771 2044 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 36 36 SSW 2 3 1771 2044 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 36 36 SSW 2 3 1771 2044 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 37 37 SSW 2 3 1771 2044 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 39 39 S 2 3 2109 2109 65 White 0
11 AM Tue 42 42 S 2 3 2754 2652 608 White 6
12 Noon Tue 44 44 S 2 3 3189 2955 911 White 8
1 PM Tue 44 44 S 4 5 3189 2955 911 White 8
2 PM Tue 44 44 S 4 5 3189 2955 911 White 8
3 PM Tue 44 44 S 4 5 3189 2955 911 White 8
4 PM Tue 43 43 SSW 3 4 2972 2797 753 White 7
5 PM Tue 42 42 SSW 3 4 2754 2652 608 White 6
6 PM Tue 41 41 SSW 3 4 2541 2540 496 White 5
7 PM Tue 40 40 SW 4 5 2325 2325 281 White 0
8 PM Tue 39 39 SW 4 5 2109 2109 65 White 0
9 PM Tue 39 39 SW 4 5 2109 2109 65 White 0
10 PM Tue 39 39 SW 4 5 2109 2109 65 White 0
11 PM Tue 39 39 SW 4 5 2109 2109 65 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 40 40 SW 4 5 2325 2325 281 White 0
1 AM Wed 40 40 SSW 4 5 2325 2325 281 White 0
2 AM Wed 40 40 SSW 4 5 2325 2325 281 White 0
3 AM Wed 39 39 SSW 4 5 2109 2109 65 White 0
4 AM Wed 39 39 SSW 5 8 2109 2109 65 White 0
5 AM Wed 39 39 SSW 5 8 2109 2109 65 White 0
6 AM Wed 38 38 SSW 5 8 1892 2044 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 38 38 SSW 6 9 1892 2044 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 39 39 SSW 6 9 2109 2109 65 White 0
9 AM Wed 40 40 SSW 6 9 2325 2325 281 White 0
10 AM Wed 41 41 SSW 9 11 2541 2540 496 White 5
11 AM Wed 43 43 SSW 9 11 2972 2797 753 White 7
12 Noon Wed 44 44 SSW 9 11 3189 2955 911 White 8
1 PM Wed 45 45 S 10 13 3406 3113 1069 White 9
2 PM Wed 45 45 S 10 13 3406 3113 1069 White 9
3 PM Wed 44 44 S 10 13 3189 2955 911 White 8
4 PM Wed 43 43 SSW 8 10 2972 2797 753 White 7
5 PM Wed 43 43 SSW 8 10 2972 2797 753 White 7
6 PM Wed 42 42 SSW 8 10 2754 2652 608 White 6
7 PM Wed 42 42 SSW 5 8 2754 2652 608 White 6
8 PM Wed 42 42 SSW 5 8 2754 2652 608 White 6
9 PM Wed 41 41 SSW 5 8 2541 2540 496 White 5
10 PM Wed 41 41 S 4 5 2541 2540 496 White 5
11 PM Wed 41 41 S 4 5 2541 2540 496 White 5
12 Midnight Thu 41 41 S 4 5 2541 2540 496 White 5
1 AM Thu 41 41 S 3 4 2541 2540 496 White 5
2 AM Thu 41 41 S 3 4 2541 2540 496 White 5
3 AM Thu 40 40 S 3 4 2325 2325 281 White 0
4 AM Thu 40 40 N 3 4 2325 2325 281 White 0
5 AM Thu 39 39 N 3 4 2109 2109 65 White 0
6 AM Thu 38 38 N 3 4 1892 2044 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 38 38 N 4 5 1892 2044 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 38 38 N 4 5 1892 2044 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 39 39 N 4 5 2109 2109 65 White 0
10 AM Thu 40 40 N 5 8 2325 2325 281 White 0
11 AM Thu 42 42 N 5 8 2754 2652 608 White 6
12 Noon Thu 43 43 N 5 8 2972 2797 753 White 7
1 PM Thu 44 44 NNE 5 8 3189 2955 911 White 8
2 PM Thu 44 44 NNE 5 8 3189 2955 911 White 8
3 PM Thu 43 43 NNE 5 8 2972 2797 753 White 7
4 PM Thu 42 42 N 5 8 2754 2652 608 White 6
5 PM Thu 41 41 N 5 8 2541 2540 496 White 5
6 PM Thu 40 40 N 5 8 2325 2325 281 White 0
7 PM Thu 39 39 NNW 5 8 2109 2109 65 White 0
8 PM Thu 39 39 NNW 5 8 2109 2109 65 White 0
9 PM Thu 40 40 NNW 5 8 2325 2325 281 White 0
10 PM Thu 40 40 NW 5 8 2325 2325 281 White 0
11 PM Thu 40 40 NW 5 8 2325 2325 281 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 NW 5 8 2325 2325 281 White 0
1 AM Fri 40 40 WNW 4 5 2325 2325 281 White 0
2 AM Fri 40 40 WNW 4 5 2325 2325 281 White 0
3 AM Fri 40 40 WNW 4 5 2325 2325 281 White 0
4 AM Fri 40 40 SW 4 8 2325 2325 281 White 0
5 AM Fri 40 40 SW 4 8 2325 2325 281 White 0
6 AM Fri 40 40 SW 4 8 2325 2325 281 White 0
7 AM Fri 40 40 SW 4 8 2325 2325 281 White 0
8 AM Fri 40 40 SW 4 8 2325 2325 281 White 0
9 AM Fri 41 41 SW 4 8 2541 2540 496 White 5
10 AM Fri 42 42 SSW 5 9 2754 2652 608 White 6
11 AM Fri 44 44 SSW 5 9 3189 2955 911 White 8
12 Noon Fri 46 46 SSW 5 9 3622 3271 1227 White 10
1 PM Fri 47 47 S 5 9 3839 3429 1385 White 11
2 PM Fri 47 47 S 5 9 3839 3429 1385 White 11
3 PM Fri 46 46 S 5 9 3622 3271 1227 White 10
4 PM Fri 45 45 SW 4 8 3406 3113 1069 White 9
5 PM Fri 44 44 SW 4 8 3189 2955 911 White 8
6 PM Fri 43 43 SW 4 8 2972 2797 753 White 7
7 PM Fri 42 42 WSW 4 9 2754 2652 608 White 6
8 PM Fri 42 42 WSW 4 9 2754 2652 608 White 6
9 PM Fri 41 41 WSW 4 9 2541 2540 496 White 5
10 PM Fri 41 41 WSW 5 10 2541 2540 496 White 5
11 PM Fri 41 41 WSW 5 10 2541 2540 496 White 5
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 WSW 5 10 2325 2325 281 White 0
1 AM Sat 40 40 W 4 9 2325 2325 281 White 0
2 AM Sat 40 40 W 4 9 2325 2325 281 White 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 W 4 9 2109 2109 65 White 0
4 AM Sat 39 39 WNW 5 9 2109 2109 65 White 0
5 AM Sat 38 38 WNW 5 9 1892 2044 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 38 38 WNW 5 9 1892 2044 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 38 38 WNW 4 8 1892 2044 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 39 39 WNW 4 8 2109 2109 65 White 0
9 AM Sat 40 40 WNW 4 8 2325 2325 281 White 0
10 AM Sat 41 41 NW 4 8 2541 2540 496 White 5
11 AM Sat 43 43 NW 4 8 2972 2797 753 White 7
12 Noon Sat 45 45 NW 4 8 3406 3113 1069 White 9
1 PM Sat 46 46 NE 5 8 3622 3271 1227 White 10
2 PM Sat 46 46 NE 5 8 3622 3271 1227 White 10
3 PM Sat 45 45 NE 5 8 3406 3113 1069 White 9
4 PM Sat 44 44 N 5 6 3189 2955 911 White 8
5 PM Sat 43 43 N 5 6 2972 2797 753 White 7
6 PM Sat 42 42 N 5 6 2754 2652 608 White 6
7 PM Sat 41 41 NNW 5 6 2541 2540 496 White 5
8 PM Sat 40 40 NNW 5 6 2325 2325 281 White 0
9 PM Sat 39 39 NNW 5 6 2109 2109 65 White 0
10 PM Sat 39 39 NNW 5 8 2109 2109 65 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]