Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Mt
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 46.8173, -119.8773, 2350
LZ Altitude (f): 506
Sounding

Station:

 KOTX

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sun 31 31 NNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 31 31 N 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 31 31 NNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 31 31 NNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 31 31 N 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 31 31 N 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 31 31 N 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 30 30 N 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 29 29 NNE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 31 31 NNE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 32 32 N 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 33 33 N 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 35 35 N 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 34 34 NNE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 34 34 NNE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 35 35 NE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 34 34 NE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 33 33 ESE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 32 32 S 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 30 30 SSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 31 31 S 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 31 31 S 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 31 31 E 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 31 31 S 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 30 30 SSE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 31 31 NE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 31 31 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 30 30 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 31 31 NNE 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 30 30 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 30 30 NNE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 30 30 NW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 29 29 NW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 30 30 NNW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 31 31 NNW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 32 32 NNW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 33 33 NNW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 33 34 ESE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 33 33 ESE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 33 33 ESE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 32 32 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 31 31 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 30 30 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 29 29 S 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 29 29 S 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 29 29 S 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 29 29 SW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 29 29 SW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 29 29 SW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 29 29 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 29 29 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 29 29 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 29 29 N 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 29 29 N 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 29 29 N 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 29 29 N 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 30 30 N 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 31 31 N 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 33 33 N 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 34 34 N 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 36 36 N 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 37 37 NNE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 37 37 NNE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 36 36 NNE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 35 35 N 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 34 34 N 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 33 33 N 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 32 32 W 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 31 31 W 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 31 31 W 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 31 31 NW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 31 31 NW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 30 30 NW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 30 30 NW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 30 30 NW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 30 30 NW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 30 30 NNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 30 30 NNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 30 30 NNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 30 30 NNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 31 31 NNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 32 32 NNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 33 33 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 35 35 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 36 36 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 36 36 NNE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 36 36 NNE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 35 35 NNE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 34 34 N 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 34 34 N 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 33 33 N 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 33 33 W 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 32 32 W 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 32 32 W 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 31 31 W 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 31 31 W 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 31 31 W 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 31 31 SW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 31 31 SW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 31 31 SW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 30 30 NNE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 30 30 NNE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 30 30 NNE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 30 30 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 31 31 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 32 32 N 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 34 34 SSE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 36 36 SSE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 37 37 SSE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 38 38 SE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 38 38 SE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 37 37 SE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 37 37 SSE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 36 36 SSE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 36 36 SSE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 35 35 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 35 35 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 35 35 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 36 36 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 35 35 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 35 35 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 35 35 W 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 35 35 W 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 34 34 W 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 34 34 W 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 33 33 W 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 32 32 W 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 32 32 W 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 34 34 W 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 36 36 W 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 38 38 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 39 39 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 40 40 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 40 40 NNW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 40 40 NNW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 39 39 NNW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 38 38 N 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 37 37 N 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 36 36 N 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 35 35 N 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 34 34 N 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 34 34 N 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 33 33 N 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]