Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Mt
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 46.8173, -119.8773, 2350
LZ Altitude (f): 506
Sounding

Station:

 KOTX

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sun 67 67 WNW 16 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 66 66 WNW 16 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 65 65 WNW 16 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 64 64 WNW 16 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 63 63 WNW 17 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 62 62 WNW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 61 61 WNW 18 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 61 61 NW 17 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 60 60 NW 12 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 62 62 NW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 65 65 WNW 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 67 67 W 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 70 71 WSW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 73 77 SW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 74 79 SSW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 77 82 S 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 77 81 SSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 77 80 SSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 79 80 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 77 77 SW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 76 76 WNW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 71 71 WNW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 68 68 NNW 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 66 66 N 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 N 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 63 63 N 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 62 62 N 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 60 60 N 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 60 60 N 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 59 59 NNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 58 58 NNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 61 61 NNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 62 63 N 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 64 66 N 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 70 73 N 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 74 79 SE 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 77 83 SE 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 80 87 SE 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 82 88 S 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 84 89 S 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 85 89 S 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 85 87 S 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 86 87 S 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 85 85 S 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 83 83 S 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 80 80 S 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 76 76 S 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 73 73 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 71 71 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 69 69 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 67 67 WNW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 66 66 WNW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 64 64 WNW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 64 64 WNW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 64 64 WNW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 65 65 WNW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 67 68 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 70 71 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 74 77 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 78 82 SE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 82 87 SE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 85 91 SE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 88 94 SSE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 89 95 SSE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 90 94 SSE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 90 93 SSE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 89 90 SSE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 88 88 SSE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 86 86 WSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 83 83 WSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 80 80 WSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 77 77 W 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 75 75 W 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 73 73 W 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 71 71 W 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 69 69 W 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 68 68 W 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 68 68 WNW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 67 67 WNW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 68 68 WNW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 69 70 WNW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 72 75 WNW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 75 79 WNW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 79 85 NW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 82 89 NW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 85 93 NW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 87 94 SSE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 89 95 SSE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 89 94 SSE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 87 88 SSW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 86 86 SSW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 84 84 SSW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 82 82 W 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 79 79 W 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 77 77 W 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 74 74 WNW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 72 72 WNW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 70 70 WNW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 68 68 WNW 13 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 67 67 WNW 13 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 66 66 WNW 13 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 66 66 WNW 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 66 66 WNW 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 66 66 WNW 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 67 68 WNW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 70 72 WNW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 74 78 WNW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 78 84 WNW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 81 88 WNW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 83 90 WNW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 84 91 W 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 84 90 W 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 84 89 W 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 83 86 W 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 81 82 W 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 79 79 W 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 77 77 WNW 18 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 75 75 WNW 18 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 72 72 WNW 18 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 70 70 WNW 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 68 68 WNW 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 66 66 WNW 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 65 65 W 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 63 63 W 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 62 62 W 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 62 62 W 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 62 62 W 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 64 64 W 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 66 67 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 69 72 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 73 77 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 77 83 N 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 80 87 N 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 83 91 N 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 85 92 SSE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 86 92 SSE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 86 91 SSE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 85 88 WSW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 84 85 WSW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 83 83 WSW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 81 81 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 78 78 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 76 76 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]