Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Mt
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 46.8173, -119.8773, 2350
LZ Altitude (f): 506
Sounding

Station:

 KOTX

Date/Time:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 W 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 51 51 NNW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 51 51 NNW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 50 50 N 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 49 49 N 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 48 48 NNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 46 46 N 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 46 46 N 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 47 47 N 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 51 51 N 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 56 57 N 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 60 62 NNE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 62 65 NNE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 67 70 E 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 70 73 SE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 70 72 SSE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 71 72 SSE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 69 69 SSE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 66 66 SSE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 62 62 SSE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 59 59 S 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 57 57 SSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 56 56 SW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 55 55 SW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 52 52 NW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 52 52 WNW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 51 51 N 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 50 50 NNW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 50 50 WNW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 48 48 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 47 47 N 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 50 50 NW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 55 55 N 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 59 60 N 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 64 66 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 68 70 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 71 74 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 72 74 SSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 73 75 SSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 73 74 SSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 71 71 W 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 68 68 W 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 63 63 W 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 60 60 WNW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 59 59 WNW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 59 59 WNW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 59 59 WNW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 WNW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 56 56 WNW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 55 55 W 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 54 54 W 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 54 54 W 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 53 53 W 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 52 52 W 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 50 50 W 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 51 51 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 55 55 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 60 60 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 64 65 W 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 66 67 W 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 68 69 W 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 68 69 WSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 67 68 WSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 66 66 WSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 64 64 WNW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 62 62 WNW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 59 59 WNW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 57 57 WNW 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 56 56 WNW 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 55 55 WNW 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 54 54 WNW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 WNW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 51 51 WNW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 50 50 W 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 49 49 W 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 47 47 W 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 46 46 W 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 44 44 W 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 43 43 W 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 44 44 WNW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 47 47 WNW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 52 52 WNW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 56 57 N 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 59 61 N 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 60 62 N 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 61 63 NE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 61 62 NE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 60 61 NE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 59 59 ENE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 57 57 ENE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 54 54 ENE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 52 52 NNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 51 51 NNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 50 50 NNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 50 50 NW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 NW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 48 48 NW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 47 47 NNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 46 46 NNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 46 46 NNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 46 46 NNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 46 46 NNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 46 46 NNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 47 47 NNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 49 49 NNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 52 52 NNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 55 55 N 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 58 59 N 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 60 61 N 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 61 62 N 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 61 61 N 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 60 60 N 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 59 59 N 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 58 58 N 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 57 57 N 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 56 56 WNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 55 55 WNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 54 54 WNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 53 53 WNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 WNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 52 52 WNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 51 51 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 50 50 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 50 50 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 49 49 NW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 48 48 NW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 48 48 NW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 49 49 NW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 52 52 NW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 55 56 NW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 59 61 N 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 62 64 N 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 65 67 N 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 67 69 N 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 68 70 N 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 67 68 N 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 66 66 S 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 64 64 S 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 61 61 S 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 59 59 W 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 57 57 W 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 56 56 W 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]