Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Mt
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 46.8173, -119.8773, 2350
LZ Altitude (f): 506
Sounding

Station:

 KOTX

Date/Time:

 11 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 34 34 N 3 6 2479 2388 38 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 36 36 N 3 5 2686 2395 45 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 37 37 N 2 4 2844 2478 128 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 37 37 NNW 3 4 2844 2478 128 Blue 4
4 AM Mon 37 37 NNW 3 4 2844 2478 128 Blue 4
5 AM Mon 37 37 NNW 3 5 2844 2478 128 Blue 4
6 AM Mon 35 35 NNE 4 6 2565 2388 38 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 36 36 NNW 3 6 2686 2395 45 Blue 3
8 AM Mon 36 36 NW 3 5 2686 2395 45 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 38 38 NNW 3 6 3005 2564 214 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 39 39 N 3 4 3165 2685 335 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 40 40 N 2 3 3325 2842 492 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 41 41 N 3 3 3485 3001 651 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 42 42 NNW 3 3 3645 3161 811 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 43 43 NNW 2 3 3805 3320 970 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 43 43 NNW 2 3 3805 3320 970 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 41 41 NNW 2 2 3485 3001 651 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 39 39 NNW 2 4 3165 2685 335 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 39 39 NNW 2 5 3165 2685 335 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 38 38 NNW 3 6 3005 2564 214 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 38 38 NW 2 5 3005 2564 214 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 37 37 NW 2 4 2844 2478 128 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 37 37 NW 2 4 2844 2478 128 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 37 37 NW 3 6 2844 2478 128 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 37 37 NW 4 7 2844 2478 128 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 36 36 NNW 2 5 2686 2395 45 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 36 36 N 2 5 2686 2395 45 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 35 35 N 2 5 2565 2388 38 Blue 2
4 AM Tue 35 35 NNE 3 6 2565 2388 38 Blue 2
5 AM Tue 34 34 NNW 4 8 2479 2388 38 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 33 33 NNW 3 6 2356 2356 6 White 0
7 AM Tue 33 33 N 2 5 2356 2356 6 White 0
8 AM Tue 32 32 NNW 3 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 34 34 NNW 3 6 2479 2388 38 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 36 36 N 2 4 2686 2395 45 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 38 38 N 2 3 3005 2564 214 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 40 40 NNE 3 3 3325 2842 492 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 41 41 NNE 2 3 3485 3001 651 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 41 41 NE 3 3 3485 3001 651 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 41 41 NNE 2 3 3485 3001 651 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 39 39 NNE 3 3 3165 2685 335 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 37 37 NE 2 4 2844 2478 128 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 35 35 NNE 2 5 2565 2388 38 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 33 33 NNE 2 4 2356 2356 6 White 0
8 PM Tue 32 32 NNW 2 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 31 31 NNW 3 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 30 30 NNW 3 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 30 30 NNW 3 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 30 30 NNW 4 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 29 29 NNW 3 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 29 29 NNW 4 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 29 29 N 3 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 29 29 NNW 4 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 29 29 NNW 4 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 30 30 NNW 4 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 30 30 NNW 4 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 30 30 NNW 4 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 32 32 NNW 4 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 34 34 NNW 4 5 2479 2388 38 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 36 36 N 3 4 2686 2395 45 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 37 37 N 3 3 2844 2478 128 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 38 38 N 2 3 3005 2564 214 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 38 38 NNE 2 2 3005 2564 214 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 38 38 NNE 1 2 3005 2564 214 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 35 35 NNE 1 2 2565 2388 38 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 33 33 N 1 3 2356 2356 6 White 0
6 PM Wed 32 32 NW 2 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 32 32 NNW 2 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 31 31 NNW 2 4 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 30 30 NNW 2 4 0 2350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 30 30 N 1 3 0 2350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 30 30 NNW 2 5 0 2350 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]