Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Mt
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 46.8173, -119.8773, 2350
LZ Altitude (f): 506
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time UTC:

250217/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 32 32 NNE 2 3 2877 2388 38 White 2
1 AM Mon 31 31 N 2 4 2501 2388 38 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 31 31 NNE 3 4 2501 2388 38 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 31 31 NE 3 4 2501 2388 38 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 31 31 NNW 3 5 2501 2388 38 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 31 31 NNE 3 4 2501 2388 38 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 30 30 NNE 3 4 2388 2388 38 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 31 31 WNW 4 4 2501 2388 38 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 31 31 NNW 3 4 2501 2388 38 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 32 32 NNW 3 4 2877 2388 38 White 2
10 AM Mon 33 33 W 3 4 3095 2388 38 White 3
11 AM Mon 33 33 NE 3 4 3095 2388 38 White 3
12 Noon Mon 35 35 E 3 5 3530 2884 534 White 5
1 PM Mon 35 35 WSW 3 5 3530 2884 534 White 5
2 PM Mon 35 35 SSW 2 5 3530 2884 534 White 5
3 PM Mon 36 36 SSW 3 5 3747 3271 921 White 6
4 PM Mon 35 35 W 4 5 3530 2884 534 White 5
5 PM Mon 35 35 S 4 5 3530 2884 534 White 5
6 PM Mon 34 34 SSW 3 5 3313 2495 145 White 4
7 PM Mon 32 32 SSW 3 5 2877 2388 38 White 2
8 PM Mon 32 32 SW 3 4 2877 2388 38 White 2
9 PM Mon 32 32 W 3 4 2877 2388 38 White 2
10 PM Mon 31 31 WNW 4 5 2501 2388 38 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 31 31 WNW 4 4 2501 2388 38 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 32 32 WNW 4 4 2877 2388 38 White 2
1 AM Tue 32 32 NW 4 5 2877 2388 38 White 2
2 AM Tue 32 32 NW 3 5 2877 2388 38 White 2
3 AM Tue 31 31 NW 3 5 2501 2388 38 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 32 32 N 4 5 2877 2388 38 White 2
5 AM Tue 31 31 N 4 5 2501 2388 38 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 30 30 N 4 5 2388 2388 38 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 31 31 N 4 6 2501 2388 38 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 30 30 N 4 6 2388 2388 38 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 32 32 N 4 6 2877 2388 38 White 2
10 AM Tue 33 33 NNE 5 8 3095 2388 38 White 3
11 AM Tue 34 34 NNE 5 8 3313 2495 145 White 4
12 Noon Tue 35 35 NNE 5 8 3530 2884 534 White 5
1 PM Tue 35 35 NE 5 9 3530 2884 534 White 5
2 PM Tue 35 35 NE 5 9 3530 2884 534 White 5
3 PM Tue 35 35 NE 5 9 3530 2884 534 White 5
4 PM Tue 35 35 NE 10 16 3530 2884 534 White 5
5 PM Tue 34 34 NE 10 16 3313 2495 145 White 4
6 PM Tue 34 34 NE 10 16 3313 2495 145 White 4
7 PM Tue 33 33 NNE 9 14 3095 2388 38 White 3
8 PM Tue 33 33 NNE 9 14 3095 2388 38 White 3
9 PM Tue 32 32 NNE 9 14 2877 2388 38 White 2
10 PM Tue 32 32 N 9 14 2877 2388 38 White 2
11 PM Tue 32 32 N 9 14 2877 2388 38 White 2
12 Midnight Wed 31 31 N 9 14 2501 2388 38 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 31 31 N 11 18 2501 2388 38 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 31 31 N 11 18 2501 2388 38 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 31 31 N 11 18 2501 2388 38 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 30 30 N 13 23 2388 2388 38 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 30 30 N 13 23 2388 2388 38 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 30 30 N 13 23 2388 2388 38 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 30 30 N 14 24 2388 2388 38 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 30 30 N 14 24 2388 2388 38 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 30 30 N 14 24 2388 2388 38 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 30 30 N 12 20 2388 2388 38 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 31 31 N 12 20 2501 2388 38 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 32 32 N 12 20 2877 2388 38 White 2
1 PM Wed 33 33 N 11 18 3095 2388 38 White 3
2 PM Wed 34 34 N 11 18 3313 2495 145 White 4
3 PM Wed 34 34 N 11 18 3313 2495 145 White 4
4 PM Wed 34 34 N 10 17 3313 2495 145 White 4
5 PM Wed 34 34 N 10 17 3313 2495 145 White 4
6 PM Wed 33 33 N 10 17 3095 2388 38 White 3
7 PM Wed 33 33 NW 10 16 3095 2388 38 White 3
8 PM Wed 32 32 NW 10 16 2877 2388 38 White 2
9 PM Wed 32 32 NW 10 16 2877 2388 38 White 2
10 PM Wed 31 31 WNW 9 13 2501 2388 38 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 31 31 WNW 9 13 2501 2388 38 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 32 32 WNW 9 13 2877 2388 38 White 2
1 AM Thu 32 32 W 9 13 2877 2388 38 White 2
2 AM Thu 31 31 W 9 13 2501 2388 38 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 31 31 W 9 13 2501 2388 38 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 30 30 W 9 13 2388 2388 38 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 30 30 W 9 13 2388 2388 38 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 30 30 W 9 13 2388 2388 38 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 30 30 W 9 14 2388 2388 38 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 31 31 W 9 14 2501 2388 38 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 32 32 W 9 14 2877 2388 38 White 2
10 AM Thu 34 34 W 9 13 3313 2495 145 White 4
11 AM Thu 35 36 W 9 13 3747 3271 921 White 6
12 Noon Thu 36 37 W 9 13 3963 3653 1303 White 7
1 PM Thu 37 38 WSW 8 12 4155 3832 1482 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 38 38 WSW 8 12 4155 3832 1482 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 38 38 WSW 8 12 4155 3832 1482 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 37 37 SSE 8 12 3963 3653 1303 White 7
5 PM Thu 36 36 SSE 8 12 3747 3271 921 White 6
6 PM Thu 34 34 SSE 8 12 3313 2495 145 White 4
7 PM Thu 33 33 W 8 12 3095 2388 38 White 3
8 PM Thu 33 33 W 8 12 3095 2388 38 White 3
9 PM Thu 32 32 W 8 12 2877 2388 38 White 2
10 PM Thu 32 32 WNW 6 10 2877 2388 38 White 2
11 PM Thu 32 32 WNW 6 10 2877 2388 38 White 2
12 Midnight Fri 33 33 WNW 6 10 3095 2388 38 White 3
1 AM Fri 33 33 NW 4 8 3095 2388 38 White 3
2 AM Fri 32 32 NW 4 8 2877 2388 38 White 2
3 AM Fri 32 32 NW 4 8 2877 2388 38 White 2
4 AM Fri 31 31 NNW 4 8 2501 2388 38 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 31 31 NNW 4 8 2501 2388 38 Blue 1
6 AM Fri 31 31 NNW 4 8 2501 2388 38 Blue 1
7 AM Fri 31 31 NNW 4 8 2501 2388 38 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 32 32 NNW 4 8 2877 2388 38 White 2
9 AM Fri 33 33 NNW 4 8 3095 2388 38 White 3
10 AM Fri 34 34 NNE 5 8 3313 2495 145 White 4
11 AM Fri 35 35 NNE 5 8 3530 2884 534 White 5
12 Noon Fri 36 36 NNE 5 8 3747 3271 921 White 6
1 PM Fri 37 37 NE 5 8 3963 3653 1303 White 7
2 PM Fri 37 37 NE 5 8 3963 3653 1303 White 7
3 PM Fri 37 37 NE 5 8 3963 3653 1303 White 7
4 PM Fri 37 37 NE 5 9 3963 3653 1303 White 7
5 PM Fri 36 36 NE 5 9 3747 3271 921 White 6
6 PM Fri 35 35 NE 5 9 3530 2884 534 White 5
7 PM Fri 34 34 W 4 8 3313 2495 145 White 4
8 PM Fri 33 33 W 4 8 3095 2388 38 White 3
9 PM Fri 32 32 W 4 8 2877 2388 38 White 2
10 PM Fri 32 32 W 4 6 2877 2388 38 White 2
11 PM Fri 32 32 W 4 6 2877 2388 38 White 2
12 Midnight Sat 32 32 W 4 6 2877 2388 38 White 2
1 AM Sat 32 32 W 5 8 2877 2388 38 White 2
2 AM Sat 32 32 W 5 8 2877 2388 38 White 2
3 AM Sat 32 32 W 5 8 2877 2388 38 White 2
4 AM Sat 31 31 WSW 6 10 2501 2388 38 Blue 1
5 AM Sat 31 31 WSW 6 10 2501 2388 38 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 31 31 WSW 6 10 2501 2388 38 Blue 1
7 AM Sat 31 31 W 6 10 2501 2388 38 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 32 32 W 6 10 2877 2388 38 White 2
9 AM Sat 34 34 W 6 10 3313 2495 145 White 4
10 AM Sat 35 35 NE 8 12 3530 2884 534 White 5
11 AM Sat 37 37 NE 8 12 3963 3653 1303 White 7
12 Noon Sat 39 40 NE 8 12 4346 4054 1704 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 40 40 ESE 9 14 4346 4054 1704 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 41 41 ESE 9 14 4461 4149 1799 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 41 41 ESE 9 14 4461 4149 1799 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 40 40 ESE 11 17 4346 4054 1704 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 39 39 ESE 11 17 4251 3959 1609 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 38 38 ESE 11 17 4155 3832 1482 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 37 37 SW 11 18 3963 3653 1303 White 7
8 PM Sat 36 36 SW 11 18 3747 3271 921 White 6
9 PM Sat 36 36 SW 11 18 3747 3271 921 White 6
10 PM Sat 35 35 WSW 12 19 3530 2884 534 White 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]