Detailed Predictions for: Tiger Mt
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 47.4995, -122.008, 1830
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

13 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 NE 4 6 1341 1830 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 60 60 NE 4 6 1341 1830 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 59 59 NE 3 6 1341 1830 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 58 58 ENE 3 6 1341 1830 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 58 58 NE 3 5 1341 1830 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 58 58 NE 3 5 1341 1830 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 58 58 NE 2 4 1341 1830 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 59 59 NNE 2 4 1341 1830 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 62 63 N 2 4 1341 1830 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 64 66 N 3 5 1341 1830 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 68 72 N 4 8 1341 1830 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 71 77 NNW 5 8 1341 1830 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 74 81 N 8 11 1341 1830 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 77 84 N 8 11 1341 1830 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 80 87 N 8 11 1341 1830 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 81 87 N 8 11 1341 1830 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 81 86 N 8 11 1341 1830 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 83 86 N 6 9 1341 1830 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 81 83 N 6 9 1341 1830 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 80 80 N 6 9 1341 1830 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 77 77 N 6 9 1341 1830 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 70 70 NNE 6 9 1341 1830 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 67 67 NNE 6 9 1341 1830 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 65 65 NE 4 8 1341 1830 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 NE 4 8 1341 1830 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 61 61 ENE 4 6 1341 1830 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 61 61 E 3 6 1341 1830 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 59 59 ESE 3 6 1341 1830 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 59 59 SSE 3 6 1341 1830 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 58 58 S 3 6 1341 1830 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 58 58 S 3 6 1341 1830 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 58 58 SSW 3 6 1341 1830 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 61 62 SW 4 6 1341 1830 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 62 64 WSW 4 8 1341 1830 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 66 69 WSW 5 9 1341 1830 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 69 74 W 5 10 1341 1830 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 71 77 W 5 10 1341 1830 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 74 81 W 5 10 1341 1830 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 76 83 W 5 10 1341 1830 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 78 84 W 5 10 1341 1830 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 79 84 W 5 10 1341 1830 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 79 82 W 5 11 1341 1830 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 78 80 W 5 11 1341 1830 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 77 77 W 5 11 1341 1830 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 74 74 W 5 10 1341 1830 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 70 70 W 5 10 1341 1830 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 66 66 W 5 10 1341 1830 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 62 62 WSW 4 9 1341 1830 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 59 59 WSW 4 9 1341 1830 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 57 57 WSW 4 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 56 SSW 4 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 55 SSW 4 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 SSW 4 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 55 SSW 4 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 55 SSW 4 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 56 SSW 4 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 58 SW 4 8 1341 1830 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 59 61 SW 4 8 1341 1830 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 62 65 SW 4 8 1341 1830 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 65 70 W 4 9 1341 1830 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 69 75 W 4 9 1341 1830 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 72 78 W 4 9 1341 1830 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 75 81 WNW 4 9 1341 1830 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 77 83 WNW 4 9 1341 1830 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 78 82 WNW 4 9 1341 1830 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 78 81 NW 4 10 1341 1830 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 78 80 NW 4 10 1341 1830 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 77 77 NW 4 10 1341 1830 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 75 75 NNW 4 10 1341 1830 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 71 71 NNW 4 10 1341 1830 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 67 67 NNW 4 10 1341 1830 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 63 63 N 4 10 1341 1830 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 61 61 N 4 10 1341 1830 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 60 60 N 4 10 1341 1830 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 59 59 NE 4 8 1341 1830 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 58 58 NE 4 8 1341 1830 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 58 58 NE 4 8 1341 1830 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 58 58 E 4 6 1341 1830 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 59 59 E 4 6 1341 1830 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 60 60 E 4 6 1341 1830 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 62 63 N 4 6 1341 1830 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 65 67 N 4 6 1341 1830 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 68 72 N 4 6 1341 1830 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 71 76 NNW 5 9 1341 1830 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 74 81 NNW 5 9 1341 1830 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 77 84 NNW 5 9 1341 1830 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 80 87 NNW 5 10 1341 1830 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 82 88 NNW 5 10 1341 1830 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 83 88 NNW 5 10 1341 1830 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 83 86 NNW 5 11 1341 1830 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 82 84 NNW 5 11 1341 1830 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 79 79 NNW 5 11 1341 1830 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 76 76 NNW 5 11 1341 1830 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 72 72 NNW 5 11 1341 1830 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 67 67 NNW 5 11 1341 1830 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 63 63 NE 4 9 1341 1830 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 NE 4 9 1341 1830 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 60 60 NE 4 9 1341 1830 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 59 59 E 4 6 1341 1830 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 59 59 E 4 6 1341 1830 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 59 59 E 4 6 1341 1830 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 E 3 6 1341 1830 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 59 59 E 3 6 1341 1830 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 60 60 E 3 6 1341 1830 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 62 63 W 3 6 1341 1830 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 65 67 W 3 6 1341 1830 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 68 71 W 3 6 1341 1830 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 71 75 NW 5 9 1341 1830 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 74 78 NW 5 9 1341 1830 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 77 82 NW 5 9 1341 1830 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 80 85 WNW 5 11 1341 1830 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 82 86 WNW 5 11 1341 1830 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 84 87 WNW 5 11 1341 1830 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 84 86 WNW 5 11 1341 1830 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 84 85 WNW 5 11 1341 1830 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 82 82 WNW 5 11 1341 1830 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 80 80 WNW 5 11 1341 1830 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 76 76 WNW 5 11 1341 1830 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 71 71 WNW 5 11 1341 1830 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 67 67 S 5 10 1341 1830 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 S 5 10 1341 1830 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 62 62 S 5 10 1341 1830 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 61 61 S 4 10 1341 1830 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 60 60 S 4 10 1341 1830 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 60 60 S 4 10 1341 1830 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 60 60 S 4 9 1341 1830 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 S 4 9 1341 1830 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 61 61 S 4 9 1341 1830 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 62 62 SSW 4 9 1341 1830 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 64 65 SSW 4 9 1341 1830 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 66 68 SSW 4 9 1341 1830 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 69 73 WSW 5 10 1341 1830 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 72 76 WSW 5 10 1341 1830 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 75 80 WSW 5 10 1341 1830 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 78 83 W 5 11 1341 1830 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 80 85 W 5 11 1341 1830 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 82 85 W 5 11 1341 1830 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 82 85 W 6 12 1341 1830 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 81 82 W 6 12 1341 1830 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 79 79 W 6 12 1341 1830 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 76 76 W 6 11 1341 1830 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 72 72 W 6 11 1341 1830 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 68 68 W 6 11 1341 1830 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]