Detailed Predictions for: Tiger Mt
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 47.4995, -122.008, 1830
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

28 MAR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 39 39 S 10 13 1941 1941 111 White 0
1 AM Thu 39 39 S 10 13 1941 1941 111 White 0
2 AM Thu 38 38 S 9 11 1723 1830 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 38 38 S 9 11 1723 1830 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 38 38 S 9 11 1723 1830 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 38 38 SSE 9 11 1723 1830 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 38 38 SSE 9 11 1723 1830 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 37 37 SSE 9 11 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 38 38 SSE 9 11 1723 1830 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 40 40 SSE 9 11 2160 2160 330 White 0
10 AM Thu 42 42 SSE 9 11 2595 2397 567 White 3
11 AM Thu 43 43 S 9 11 2689 2469 639 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 44 44 S 9 11 2762 2541 711 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 45 45 S 9 11 2835 2614 784 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 46 46 S 12 16 3032 2686 856 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 46 46 S 12 16 3032 2686 856 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 46 46 S 12 16 3032 2686 856 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 47 47 S 12 16 3406 2758 928 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 45 45 S 12 16 2835 2614 784 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 43 43 S 12 16 2689 2469 639 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 43 43 S 11 14 2689 2469 639 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 40 40 S 11 14 2160 2160 330 White 0
10 PM Thu 40 40 S 11 14 2160 2160 330 White 0
11 PM Thu 40 40 S 12 16 2160 2160 330 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 S 12 16 2160 2160 330 White 0
1 AM Fri 39 39 S 12 16 1941 1941 111 White 0
2 AM Fri 39 39 S 11 14 1941 1941 111 White 0
3 AM Fri 39 39 S 11 14 1941 1941 111 White 0
4 AM Fri 39 39 S 11 14 1941 1941 111 White 0
5 AM Fri 39 39 SSE 9 11 1941 1941 111 White 0
6 AM Fri 39 39 SSE 9 11 1941 1941 111 White 0
7 AM Fri 38 38 SSE 9 11 1723 1830 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 39 39 S 5 8 1941 1941 111 White 0
9 AM Fri 40 40 S 5 8 2160 2160 330 White 0
10 AM Fri 43 43 S 5 8 2689 2469 639 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 45 46 WSW 5 8 3032 2686 856 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 46 47 WSW 5 8 3406 2758 928 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 47 48 WSW 5 8 3775 2831 1001 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 48 49 N 5 8 4124 3011 1181 White 10
3 PM Fri 49 50 N 5 8 4342 3381 1551 White 11
4 PM Fri 49 49 N 5 8 4124 3011 1181 White 10
5 PM Fri 50 51 N 6 9 4559 3745 1915 White 12
6 PM Fri 48 48 N 6 9 3775 2831 1001 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 46 46 N 6 9 3032 2686 856 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 44 44 N 8 10 2762 2541 711 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 43 43 N 8 10 2689 2469 639 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 41 41 N 8 10 2378 2378 548 White 0
11 PM Fri 40 40 NNE 8 10 2160 2160 330 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 39 39 NNE 8 10 1941 1941 111 White 0
1 AM Sat 38 38 NNE 8 10 1723 1830 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 37 37 ENE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 37 37 ENE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 36 36 ENE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 36 36 ENE 4 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 37 37 ENE 4 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 37 37 ENE 4 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 38 38 ENE 4 8 1723 1830 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 40 40 ENE 4 8 2160 2160 330 White 0
10 AM Sat 43 44 ENE 4 8 2762 2541 711 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 46 48 NNW 6 10 3775 2831 1001 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 48 51 NNW 6 10 4559 3745 1915 White 12
1 PM Sat 50 53 NNW 6 10 4983 4462 2632 White 14
2 PM Sat 51 54 NW 8 10 5195 5195 3365 White 15
3 PM Sat 52 54 NW 8 10 5195 5195 3365 White 15
4 PM Sat 53 55 NW 8 10 5406 5406 3576 White 16
5 PM Sat 52 53 NNW 9 13 4983 4462 2632 White 14
6 PM Sat 50 50 NNW 9 13 4342 3381 1551 White 11
7 PM Sat 48 48 NNW 9 13 3775 2831 1001 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 45 45 N 6 11 2835 2614 784 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 43 43 N 6 11 2689 2469 639 Blue 4
10 PM Sat 42 42 N 6 11 2595 2397 567 White 3
11 PM Sat 41 41 E 5 9 2378 2378 548 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 E 5 9 2160 2160 330 White 0
1 AM Sun 39 39 E 5 9 1941 1941 111 White 0
2 AM Sun 39 39 E 4 8 1941 1941 111 White 0
3 AM Sun 38 38 E 4 8 1723 1830 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 38 38 E 4 8 1723 1830 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 38 38 E 5 6 1723 1830 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 E 5 6 1723 1830 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 38 38 E 5 6 1723 1830 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 39 39 ENE 5 8 1941 1941 111 White 0
9 AM Sun 42 43 ENE 5 8 2689 2469 639 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 45 47 ENE 5 8 3406 2758 928 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 48 51 NNW 8 11 4559 3745 1915 White 12
12 Noon Sun 50 54 NNW 8 11 5195 5195 3365 White 15
1 PM Sun 51 55 NNW 8 11 5406 5406 3576 White 16
2 PM Sun 52 55 NNW 10 13 5406 5406 3576 White 16
3 PM Sun 53 56 NNW 10 13 5617 5617 3787 White 17
4 PM Sun 54 56 NNW 10 13 5617 5617 3787 White 17
5 PM Sun 54 55 NNW 10 13 5406 5406 3576 White 16
6 PM Sun 52 52 NNW 10 13 4772 4106 2276 White 13
7 PM Sun 50 50 NNW 10 13 4342 3381 1551 White 11
8 PM Sun 47 47 NNW 6 11 3406 2758 928 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 45 45 NNW 6 11 2835 2614 784 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 44 44 NNW 6 11 2762 2541 711 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 43 43 ESE 5 9 2689 2469 639 Blue 4
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 ESE 5 9 2595 2397 567 White 3
1 AM Mon 41 41 ESE 5 9 2378 2378 548 White 0
2 AM Mon 41 41 SE 6 9 2378 2378 548 White 0
3 AM Mon 40 40 SE 6 9 2160 2160 330 White 0
4 AM Mon 40 40 SE 6 9 2160 2160 330 White 0
5 AM Mon 40 40 SE 6 9 2160 2160 330 White 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 SE 6 9 2160 2160 330 White 0
7 AM Mon 41 41 SE 6 9 2378 2378 548 White 0
8 AM Mon 42 42 SSE 6 10 2595 2397 567 White 3
9 AM Mon 45 45 SSE 6 10 2835 2614 784 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 48 49 SSE 6 10 4124 3011 1181 White 10
11 AM Mon 51 53 SW 8 12 4983 4462 2632 White 14
12 Noon Mon 53 56 SW 8 12 5617 5617 3787 White 17
1 PM Mon 54 57 SW 8 12 5828 5828 3998 White 18
2 PM Mon 55 57 WSW 9 12 5828 5828 3998 White 18
3 PM Mon 56 58 WSW 9 12 6037 6037 4207 White 19
4 PM Mon 57 58 WSW 9 12 6037 6037 4207 White 19
5 PM Mon 57 57 WSW 9 12 5828 5828 3998 White 18
6 PM Mon 56 56 WSW 9 12 5617 5617 3787 White 17
7 PM Mon 53 53 WSW 9 12 4983 4462 2632 White 14
8 PM Mon 51 51 SSW 8 11 4559 3745 1915 White 12
9 PM Mon 49 49 SSW 8 11 4124 3011 1181 White 10
10 PM Mon 48 48 SSW 8 11 3775 2831 1001 Blue 9
11 PM Mon 47 47 S 8 11 3406 2758 928 Blue 8
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 S 8 11 3032 2686 856 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 46 46 S 8 11 3032 2686 856 Blue 7
2 AM Tue 46 46 S 8 12 3032 2686 856 Blue 7
3 AM Tue 46 46 S 8 12 3032 2686 856 Blue 7
4 AM Tue 46 46 S 8 12 3032 2686 856 Blue 7
5 AM Tue 46 46 S 8 12 3032 2686 856 Blue 7
6 AM Tue 46 46 S 8 12 3032 2686 856 Blue 7
7 AM Tue 46 46 S 8 12 3032 2686 856 Blue 7
8 AM Tue 46 46 S 9 13 3032 2686 856 Blue 7
9 AM Tue 47 47 S 9 13 3406 2758 928 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 48 48 S 9 13 3775 2831 1001 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 49 50 SSW 11 17 4342 3381 1551 White 11
12 Noon Tue 50 51 SSW 11 17 4559 3745 1915 White 12
1 PM Tue 51 52 SSW 11 17 4772 4106 2276 White 13
2 PM Tue 52 53 SW 12 18 4983 4462 2632 White 14
3 PM Tue 52 53 SW 12 18 4983 4462 2632 White 14
4 PM Tue 52 52 SW 12 18 4772 4106 2276 White 13
5 PM Tue 52 52 SW 13 19 4772 4106 2276 White 13
6 PM Tue 51 51 SW 13 19 4559 3745 1915 White 12
7 PM Tue 49 49 SW 13 19 4124 3011 1181 White 10
8 PM Tue 48 48 SW 12 19 3775 2831 1001 Blue 9
9 PM Tue 47 47 SW 12 19 3406 2758 928 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 46 46 SW 12 19 3032 2686 856 Blue 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]