Detailed Predictions for: Tiger Mt
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 47.4995, -122.008, 1830
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

14 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 NE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 ENE 4 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 NE 4 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 NE 4 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 NE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 41 NNE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 NE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 NE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 43 43 NNE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 47 N 6 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 52 N 6 9 2409 2393 563 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 52 56 N 8 11 2504 2414 584 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 54 59 NNW 8 11 2711 2501 671 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 56 61 NNW 8 11 2849 2639 809 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 58 63 NNW 8 11 2987 2777 947 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 59 63 NNW 8 11 2987 2777 947 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 59 62 NNW 8 11 2918 2708 878 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 58 59 NNW 8 11 2711 2501 671 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 57 57 NNW 8 11 2573 2420 590 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 54 54 N 8 11 2420 2404 574 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 51 51 NNE 9 12 2404 2388 558 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 48 48 NNE 9 12 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 46 NE 9 12 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 45 45 NE 9 12 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 SSE 9 12 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 43 43 S 10 14 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 42 S 10 14 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 42 S 11 16 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 42 S 11 16 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 41 S 11 16 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 41 41 S 11 16 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 41 41 S 12 17 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 41 SSW 12 17 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 41 41 SSW 12 17 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 41 41 SSW 12 17 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 42 42 SSW 11 16 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 43 44 SSW 11 16 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 43 44 SSW 11 16 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 44 45 WSW 9 12 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 44 45 WSW 9 12 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 44 44 WSW 9 12 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 44 44 W 9 12 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 43 43 W 9 12 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 42 42 W 9 12 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 41 41 W 8 11 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 40 40 W 8 11 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 39 39 W 8 11 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 38 38 SSW 9 12 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 SSW 9 12 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 37 37 SSW 9 12 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 37 37 S 9 12 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 36 36 S 9 12 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 35 35 S 9 12 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 35 35 S 8 11 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 35 35 S 8 11 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 36 36 S 8 11 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 37 37 S 6 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 38 38 S 6 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 40 41 S 6 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 42 44 WSW 6 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 44 46 WSW 6 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 45 47 WSW 6 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 46 48 WNW 8 11 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 47 49 WNW 8 11 2393 2388 558 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 47 48 WNW 8 11 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 47 48 NW 10 14 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 45 45 NW 10 14 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 43 43 NW 10 14 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 41 41 NNW 6 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 40 40 NNW 6 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 39 39 NNW 6 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 38 38 ESE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 37 37 ESE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 35 35 ESE 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 34 34 ESE 4 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 33 33 ESE 4 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 33 33 ESE 4 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 33 33 ESE 4 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 34 34 ESE 4 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 35 35 ESE 4 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 37 37 E 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 40 41 E 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 44 46 E 5 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 47 50 NNW 8 11 2398 2388 558 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 49 53 NNW 8 11 2415 2398 568 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 51 55 NNW 8 11 2435 2409 579 Blue 7
2 PM Wed 52 56 NNW 10 14 2504 2414 584 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 53 56 NNW 10 14 2504 2414 584 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 54 56 NNW 10 14 2504 2414 584 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 54 55 NNW 11 16 2435 2409 579 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 52 52 NNW 11 16 2409 2393 563 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 50 50 NNW 11 16 2398 2388 558 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 47 47 N 9 12 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 44 44 N 9 12 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 42 42 N 9 12 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 40 40 ENE 8 11 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 39 39 ENE 8 11 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 38 38 ENE 8 11 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 37 37 E 6 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 36 36 E 6 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 36 36 E 6 9 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 36 36 E 6 10 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 E 6 10 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 38 38 E 6 10 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 41 41 ENE 8 11 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 45 46 ENE 8 11 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 49 51 ENE 8 11 2404 2388 558 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 53 57 NNE 10 14 2573 2420 590 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 55 60 NNE 10 14 2780 2570 740 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 57 62 NNE 10 14 2918 2708 878 Blue 14
2 PM Thu 58 62 N 11 17 2918 2708 878 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 59 63 N 11 17 2987 2777 947 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 60 62 N 11 17 2918 2708 878 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 59 60 N 11 18 2780 2570 740 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 57 57 N 11 18 2573 2420 590 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 55 55 N 11 18 2435 2409 579 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 52 52 NE 10 16 2409 2393 563 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 49 49 NE 10 16 2393 2388 558 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 46 46 NE 10 16 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 E 9 13 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 E 9 13 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 42 42 E 9 13 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 41 41 E 9 13 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 40 40 E 9 13 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 40 40 E 9 13 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 40 40 E 9 13 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 E 9 13 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 42 E 9 13 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 44 E 11 16 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 48 49 E 11 16 2393 2388 558 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 52 54 E 11 16 2420 2404 574 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 56 59 E 13 20 2711 2501 671 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 58 62 E 13 20 2918 2708 878 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 59 63 E 13 20 2987 2777 947 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 60 64 E 13 20 3056 2846 1016 Blue 16
3 PM Fri 61 64 E 13 20 3056 2846 1016 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 61 63 E 13 20 2987 2777 947 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 60 61 E 13 20 2849 2639 809 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 58 58 E 13 20 2642 2433 603 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 56 56 E 13 20 2504 2414 584 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 54 54 E 12 20 2420 2404 574 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 52 52 E 12 20 2409 2393 563 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 50 50 E 12 20 2398 2388 558 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]